I agree with your explanation, but still, with a 33" I think he should be able to pull in the main NBC transponders on 103, maybe not reliably (especially during rain/snow), but still detect them.
Not a chance imo. If he had a good satellite meter he might see some action of the SNR coming out of background but highly doubt he could get a lock. He has a 33" dish, I was using a 100cm dish and I could get a lock with that if it was dialed dead on but any rain fade or the wind blowing across the face of the dish and I would lose them. Just not enough capture area on a 33" dish for 8-psk. Anything is possible but that seems highly improbable on such a small dish.