EchoStar/Dish raises doubts about 'ability to continue as a going concern'

[Bruce]

We're being too pessimistic about EchoStar/Dish going bankrupt. Their stock is at $13.12 today. If it were going bankrupt the stock would now be near zero.

You do know, Dish Network’s stock was $45 a share just 3 years ago.

Charlie still has some tricks up his sleeve.

There are no tricks left, they just lost $100 Million dollars, which they paid T-Mobile to extend a deadline on paying for spectrum, they just announced no one will loan them the money to do so.

https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/news/dish-network-backs-out-of-t-mobile-spectrum-buy-financial-woes-continue/2024/03/

 

[MitchDeerfield]

You can short the stock and make a fortune. Be my guest.

There is a decent chance you'll make money on it. Let me know how it turns out.

 

[Yespage]

Obviously bills need to be paid, but what is the 5G plan looking like? Is that full blown rollout inevitable? Boost Infinite is out there, but that is partnering with a good deal of other providers.

 

[meStevo]

tbh much of this discussion feels like those who are optimistic are saying 'i hope everyone makes it' after the Titanic has already split in half - while those who enjoy or are employed because of the traditional TV model are just debating on which side of the ship they're on - but both sides are going down either way. There isn't even a 'on the bright side' part of this story for Dish, everything is about getting past the next debt payment - but then what? Some have made it to the lifeboats while some are content listening to the band play despite everything else going on.

Bankruptcy seems inevitable, but restructuring only leaves pay TV customers unscathed if it's profitable. With the bottom yet to be found for traditional providers as they continue to lose millions of customers per year it's hard to say what a new normal for a viable Sat TV service looks like.

 

[Bruce]

Bankruptcy seems inevitable, but restructuring only leaves pay TV customers unscathed if it's profitable. With the bottom yet to be found for traditional providers as they continue to lose millions of customers per year it's hard to say what a new normal for a viable Sat TV service looks like.

With the expansion of Broadband, even the rural areas’ population is not enough to support even one Satellite Service, let alone two.

So, if that is the new normal, count on Rural Subscribers to support the business, forget it.

Rural Household Population is 16% of the United States (131 Million Households total).

So, total Satellite subscribers ( for both) is 14 Million, 16% of that is only 2.24 Million.

But, 16% is the total Rural population, how many of them receive fast enough broadband, or do not want Satellite, or cannot afford it.

But, let’s say, of that 14 Million, 30% are rural subscribers, that is still only 4.2 Million, still not enough to support one company, definitely not two.

Once again, I live in a rural area(Well, Septic, lots of land, Deer and other critters come into my front yard every night, Wild Turkeys, Giant Cranes during the day, even have wild chickens in this areano one can catch, my Blink Cameras show me so much of what happens at night), yet I have 1G Broadband.

 

[navychop]

So what you’re saying is, you have your main entree’ delivered to your home each day?

 

[Juan]

Let's discuss that possibility. Is it one? Would DISH really just close up shop? For those more educated on the matter than me (i.e., most), what are the worst case, best case and most probable case scenarios?

Liberty Media would snap them up before that happens

 

[Juan]

Obviously bills need to be paid, but what is the 5G plan looking like? Is that full blown rollout inevitable? Boost Infinite is out there, but that is partnering with a good deal of other providers.

5g is a big disappointment for everyone...the big boys are planning 6g now

 

[Bruce]

Liberty Media would snap them up before that happens

Why?

 

[MitchDeerfield]

Dish has billions of dollars worth of spectrum that it can sell. It can also merge with both DirecTV and another wireless company.

 

[Bruce]

Dish has billions of dollars worth of spectrum that it can sell.

nope-

Under the terms (PDF), Dish can’t sell its AWS-4 and 600 MHz spectrum for six years without prior DoJ or FCC approval. Dish holds 486 licenses in the 600 MHz band, with at least one license in each of the 416 Partial Economic Areas (PEAs) in the U.S.

Tax season 2024: It's different this time for prepaid wireless — Moore

This year's tax season is different because the end of the Affordable Connectivity Program could put a dent in pre-paid wireless uptake.

www.fiercewireless.com

There are similar deals with the other spectrum it holds.

Why do not people at least google things before they post them, I google everything to make sure what I am posting is correct.

Also have a MBA, so I do have some insight in how businesses work.

It can also merge with both DirecTV and another wireless company.

Again, why would another wireless company want Dish, if for the spectrum, better to get what they want in bankruptcy court, they could offer less for the spectrum then.

And a merger will not happen, takes a lot of cash to do so, neither company has it.

Also, since DirecTV has $10 Billion in Debt, Dish/Echostar with $26 Billion, even if they did merge, you would be starting off a new merged company with $36 Billion in debt, with Customers leaving at a pace of 3 million a year for both services.

Diamond Sports was spun off from Sinclair, with the $10 Billion dollars in debt that Sinclair borrowed, where did they end up after no longer taking enough money in to handle the debt.

 

[MitchDeerfield]

Mr. MBA,

But EchoStar/Dish isn't without options. New Street Research believes EchoStar could raise about $3.2 billion of spectrum-backed notes from its DBSD and Terrestar holdings, and raise an additional $4.3 billion against AWS-3 licenses.

"Taken together, this should provide enough liquidity to deal with the converts and close the funding gap while also accelerating the network deployment and investing in subscriber acquisition at Boost," New Street analyst Jonathan Chaplin wrote in a research note just ahead of the release of EchoStar's Q4 results.

"We believe there is a deal that would be acceptable to Dish Network Corp bondholders that would reduce total debt outstanding, push out maturities, and provide access to additional capital ...

 

[Bruce]

Mr. MBA,

But EchoStar/Dish isn't without options. New Street Research believes EchoStar could raise about $3.2 billion of spectrum-backed notes from its DBSD and Terrestar holdings, and raise an additional $4.3 billion against AWS-3 licenses.

"Taken together, this should provide enough liquidity to deal with the converts and close the funding gap while also accelerating the network deployment and investing in subscriber acquisition at Boost," New Street analyst Jonathan Chaplin wrote in a research note just ahead of the release of EchoStar's Q4 results.

"We believe there is a deal that would be acceptable to Dish Network Corp bondholders that would reduce total debt outstanding, push out maturities, and provide access to additional capital ...

I agree, now they just need someone to loan them that money, if you have any ideas who will loan money to a company that is losing subscribers, that already has Bond Holders owed $26 Billion that cannot be paid back.

Do not forget, Dish could not get anyone to loan them the $3 Billion for more spectrum.

They just have too much debt right now.

 

[HipKat]

Mr. MBA,

But EchoStar/Dish isn't without options. New Street Research believes EchoStar could raise about $3.2 billion of spectrum-backed notes from its DBSD and Terrestar holdings, and raise an additional $4.3 billion against AWS-3 licenses.

"Taken together, this should provide enough liquidity to deal with the converts and close the funding gap while also accelerating the network deployment and investing in subscriber acquisition at Boost," New Street analyst Jonathan Chaplin wrote in a research note just ahead of the release of EchoStar's Q4 results.

"We believe there is a deal that would be acceptable to Dish Network Corp bondholders that would reduce total debt outstanding, push out maturities, and provide access to additional capital ...

Probably you do, but incase people don't. Dish's post paid Wireless is Boost Infinite, not Boost Mobile
Boost Infinite is a new postpaid mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) that sells a very affordable unlimited phone plan on the AT&T network. Despite its name, Boost Infinite is not part of Boost Mobile. Instead, the two are sister carriers that are subsidiaries of DISH.

 

[Bruce]

Another quote from Dish-

Hamid Akhavan, appointed as EchoStar CEO just three months ago, responded with the comments below when asked if the company could meet an FCC requirement to cover 75% of its spectrum license areas with 5G cellular by 2025. (Here’s a copy of the earnings call transcript.)

“We have made substantial progress towards meeting our goals for 2024 — 2025, the milestones at 2025,” Akhavan said. “Depending on our success and our fundraising, which I mentioned earlier, we could meet those milestones. But having said that, it is my personal opinion that, that doesn’t really translate into a competitive offering for the American consumers, which has been the intent of the FCC. That milestone certainly is within reach once we — if we manage to get our fundraising, but I don’t think it’s going to change the picture in the nation in a significant way.”

Ergen’s EchoStar Concedes ‘Substantial Doubt’ About Its Future

With one analyst calling its debt situation ‘dire,’ the Dish Network parent company admits to the SEC there is doubt about its ability to continue as a ‘going concern’

www.nexttv.com

 

[nelson61]

Again, why would another wireless company want Dish, if for the spectrum, better to get what they want in bankruptcy court, they could offer less for the spectrum then.

The reason is because before you go bankrupt, companies have the freedom can make sales, deals, partnerships, joint ventures, etc without "outsiders" messing with the deal.
But, once it hits bankruptcy, in a case like this, valuable assets get put up for auction by the bankruptcy judge and your "offer" may not meet his/her standards for acceptance or a competitor may outbid you.

 

[Bruce]

The reason is because before you go bankrupt, companies have the freedom can make sales, deals, partnerships, joint ventures, etc without "outsiders" messing with the deal.
But, once it hits bankruptcy, in a case like this, valuable assets get put up for auction by the bankruptcy judge and your "offer" may not meet his/her standards for acceptance or a competitor may outbid you.

But you are missing one part of this, the FCC will not allow Dish to sell some of the spectrum till next year, Dish needs their permission, some of the other spectrum Dish is holding, they are not allowed to sell until 2026 and 2027.

So these companies might have no choice but to wait until Bankruptcy, but again, FCC is the wild card.

The other thing I have been reading the last few years, is no one wants to work with Charlie Ergen, I honestly do not know why of course.

 

[MikeD-C05]

I agree, now they just need someone to loan them that money, if you have any ideas who will loan money to a company that is losing subscribers, that already has Bond Holders owed $26 Billion that cannot be paid back.

Do not forget, Dish could not get anyone to loan them the $3 Billion for more spectrum.

They just have too much debt right now.

Yes, Charlie Ergen flew to Dubai last May 2023 and came back empty handed. The bank is closed right now. Unless maybe Elon Musk want's to buy in? He is already worth less since he took on Twitter at $45 billion and it's only worth $19 billion now. He is now number 2 in wealth after Jeff Bezos of Amazon. But Musk would want to run it all, not partner or just give money. His ego is as large if not bigger than Charlie's. So that would never work out. At one time I thought that Amazon would be a partner with DISH and their cell phone service,but I guess that boat has sailed too. Charlie might go bankrupt and restructure his debts or just straight up liquidate all and go into retirement. A great "Going out of business" sale. 🙄

 

[CSM]

I wonder how Dish Network could afford to do this?

Maxar secures Dish Network order in its first satellite contract of 2023

Dish Network said April 18 it has ordered a satellite from Maxar Technologies to expand high-definition broadcast services over North America.

spacenews.com

 

[navychop]

A “secular” decline? Spectacular?

So does this mean the Vatican is going to fund Dish?