EchoStar/Dish raises doubts about 'ability to continue as a going concern'

[Bruce]

StarLink.

A lot better then Hughes.

 

[HipKat]

Nobody really knows what that is like

Not necessarily true.


View: https://youtu.be/_18UdG4STHA?si=pmWNOyaW0cb3hJLh

 

[HipKat]

Maybe if it was better executed it could have been a winner. NOW- is an improved version under development? A new clean sheet design? A super duper Hopper 4? Or has the towel has been thrown in?

I’d like Dish to survive, and keep me subscribed. But it’ll have to get more content back. Questionable.

I don’t hear a fat lady singing, but is that a swan singing?

Probably not without the funding to develop a Hopper 4. The Plus is working MUCH better since it was redeployed last month.

 

[Bruce]

Probably not without the funding to develop a Hopper 4. The Plus is working MUCH better since it was redeployed last month.

A Hopper 4 would do nothing to stop the Churn, in our age of Cell Phone, Tablets, Streaming Boxes, a set top box is considered old fashioned.

 

[HipKat]

Except Hughes has been losing subs in every quarter , for example, 57,000 in Q3, 59,000 in Q4, no different then when you have a new install for Dish TV, one new but 2 left.

As competition increases in those under served areas, more and more will leave.

As I have pointed out, I live in a rural area, they did not get Broadband until 2018, 2 years before we moved here, while back in Michigan, lived in Metro areas, had broadband since 1996 ( a mighty 3 down/1 up then).

The push for Jupiter 3 is new. Although it's been deployed since summer, Hughes has only recently begun training installers and managers on the process of installation.
My company did less than 10 Hughes referrals on average prior to February, monthly going back to soon after J2/Gen 5 was being fielded. We're looking at approaching 50 in March. That's one company in one state, mostly.

Even in branding, it's being presented as Jupiter 3, detaching itself from the Hughes Brand.
I'm not saying this is the saving grace for Echostar/Dish but it could slow the bleeding of Satellite Internet customers, both commercial and residential.

I can tell you we have J3 w/Fusion at the office and you can't really tell the difference between that and the Comcast we also have installed another than a slight, very slight delay in browsing websites and opening new web pages. I stream YT on our Hopper 3 before meetings and it's fine. No buffering at all.

 

[HipKat]

It's better than dial up, but that's it. Since satellite internet is still around, I can only assume its gotten better, but it does seem to be expensive.

Hughes, with Jupiter 3, cut pricing and doubled data capacity. The most popular package is up to 100 Gb/s streaming at $64 per month the first year and then $84 per month after that. There's an Elite Package with Fusion, which I think was up to 200 Gb/s that's $79 the first year and then $109 after that.

Wildblue was a joke. MANY people still live in rural areas where only this or Starlink is available and with a $600 buy-in and higher per month costs than Jupiter 3 has now for most people, they positioned themselves to be more attractive to that market, Plus, there's still a large number of Commercial accounts.

 

[HipKat]

Which is stealing and 100% wrong.

Only because if it wasn't illegal, I wouldn't have a job. And that's a fact.
As a matter of fact, the number one app for streaming free content is on the Google Play Store.
The Players to stream IPTV services are also on the Play Store and the Apple Store.
Why?

To me, and I'll end it here, it's as much stealing as the big Dishes were back before the Gov't stepped in to regulate it, when you could turn it and pick up FTA/Cable channels from all over the world, which led to the Satellite TV service we have today. Or as they called it in the 90's, "The Mini-Dish"

 

[HipKat]

A lot better then Hughes.

And a lot more expensive, although has I explained above, "a lot better" is maybe not so accurate

 

[HipKat]

A Hopper 4 would do nothing to stop the Churn, in our age of Cell Phone, Tablets, Streaming Boxes, a set top box is considered old fashioned.

That's a fact!!
The demographics are always evolving. I used to say, you don;t see young people with Cable boxes anymore but "young people" has spread to most middle-aged people. I would say anyone younger than the late 50's, or early 60's are a rare breed anymore

 

[Bruce]

I can tell you we have J3 w/Fusion at the office and you can't really tell the difference between that and the Comcast we also have installed another than a slight, very slight delay in browsing websites and opening new web pages. I stream YT on our Hopper 3 before meetings and it's fine. No buffering at all.

Not a fair comparison, since you do not say what the speed is at work.

And how well would that speed (says on their website up to 100Mbps) would do in a family home where everyone is streaming at the same time, specially if one of the kids is gaming.

Then this-200 GB Priority Data, which is basically a data cap, because they slow you down if you hit this, then this from the Website-

The more connected devices you have, the quicker you will consume your Priority Data. Hughesnet is not recommended as a full-time video streaming replacement for TV service or console-based gaming activities because they quickly consume your Priority Data.

By the way, I hit 200GBs in less then a week.

From the fine print at the bottom-

*Standard Data may be slower than other traffic during high-traffic periods.

So you go offer the 200GBs, then might slow you down even more.

Then you go into the Lease Cost, which after 30 months, is the same as the equipment costs of Star Link, which is a lot faster, no data restrictions and the same price after the first year of Hughes.

 

[Bruce]

And a lot more expensive, although has I explained above, "a lot better" is maybe not so accurate

Read the above post, only the first year is cheaper, Lease Cost added up in 30 Months would be the same as the equipment cost from Star Link.

 

[HipKat]

Not a fair comparison, since you do not say what the speed is at work.

And how well would that speed (says on their website up to 100Mbps) would do in a family home where everyone is streaming at the same time, specially if one of the kids is gaming.

Then this-200 GB Priority Data, which is basically a data cap, because they slow you down if you hit this, then this from the Website-

The more connected devices you have, the quicker you will consume your Priority Data. Hughesnet is not recommended as a full-time video streaming replacement for TV service or console-based gaming activities because they quickly consume your Priority Data.

By the way, I hit 200GBs in less then a week.

From the fine print at the bottom-

*Standard Data may be slower than other traffic during high-traffic periods.

So you go offer the 200GBs, then might slow you down even more.

Then you go into the Lease Cost, which after a little more then 2 years, is the same as the equipment costs of Star Link, which is a lot faster, no data restrictions and the same price after the first year of Hughes.

I'm not going to deny those things and I'll do a speed test next time I'm in the office.
But that $600 upfront cost, the months of waiting for equipment you either install yourself or hire someone to install is not something everyone can afford or wants to deal with.

as far as 100GB speed for a whole family, worked for Comcast for many years before they upped their speeds and TBH even when they were capped at 100 Mb/s, my average d/l speed was in the 50's. Gaming and streaming worked fine. I stream everything, as does my 16-year-old who has YT on her TV 24 hours a day, unless she's in school. I'd be hard-pressed to believe I use 200Gb in a week.

Right-sizing a customer is part of the sales process. It's irresponsible and predatory to put someone into something that can't suit their needs.

But this thread isn't about comparing d**k sizes with Starlink. I recommend Starlink to people regularly.

It's about the money issues with Echostar/Dish and how Jupiter 3 is a way to build back the Satellite Internet dependant market again

 

[HipKat]

Read the above post, only the first year is cheaper, Lease Cost added up in 30 Months would be the same as the equipment cost from Star Link.

The 2nd year is $20 more. I said that in the post. After 2 years, like with Dish, I'm willing to bet a phone call can solve that

 

[jcanavera]

Sorry but in Chapter 11 or receivership contracts are null and void.

Yeah, I'm in a two year agreement also. I'd assume if they go belly up on not be able to deliver the services I signed up for, my agreement for service is over and I look for alternatives. I'm a 20+ year subscriber also, back in the days where you installed your own dish and wiring yourself. Biggest thing I would hate to lose is the service I get with my RV. So easy to put out my Tailgater and 211Z receiver and watch the same programming that I get at home. Campground wireless sucks and cell phone service is always a toss of the dice dependent upon what part of the county you are in.

 

[syphix]

...if they go belly up on not be able to deliver the services...

Let's discuss that possibility. Is it one? Would DISH really just close up shop? For those more educated on the matter than me (i.e., most), what are the worst case, best case and most probable case scenarios?

 

[Bruce]

Let's discuss that possibility. Is it one? Would DISH really just close up shop? For those more educated on the matter than me (i.e., most), what are the worst case, best case and most probable case scenarios?

In simple terms, the problems with business bankruptcies is who holds the debt, since most of Dish’s debt is held by bonds, those bond holders get first dibs at the assets ( so to get paid), so in Chapter 11, Dish will have to get them to agree to new terms, which is hard to do now, easier in Chapter 11, but with tons of risks.

But even if Dish gets the bondholders to agree, they will still need cash to come out of Chapter 11, a investor.

That was the only reason why Diamond Sports is able to come out of Chapter 11, Amazon gave them $100 Million, Sinclair is giving back almost $600 Million in cash, without that, they would of gone into Chapter 7.

Dish’s main problem is every service, Sat.TV, Phone, Sat.internet, is losing customers and that increases every year, now every quarter, with no sign of slowing down, so unfortunately, does not look like they have a future, who would invest in a company that is shrinking in subscribers every quarter, no one will invest now, why would they in bankruptcy, especially when they can pick off the pieces they want (spectrum) like vultures.

Again, they would be fine right now if they did not buy all that spectrum, which is basically what caused all this debt (along with the build out), they have been buying spectrum for 20 years, I still do not know how they planned on monetizing it.

For 20 years, the spectrum they have hoarding has been a money pit, that pit is stuffed full of about $26 Billion of debt.

 

[nelson61]

Probably end up putting the rotten stuff (wireless and it's debt) in a separate basket and sell the spectrum off piecemeal while spinning off the satellite internet and tv businesses as profit making operations.

AT&T effectively got rid of the shrinking satellite tv business with a writedown and spin off and sale but avoided the bankruptcy issues facing Echostar. They say they are quite happy with the money their share of the spinoff is generating.

 

[MikeD-C05]

True, but also losing subscribers, down to 2.06 Million.

YTTV has won the streaming Paid Live TV battle already, in just 7 years, it has hit 8 million subscribers, by the end of Q1 or Q2/2024, it will have more then Dish and Sling added together.

And no, I do not have YTTV.

By the way, I believe strongly that Dish could of easily outlasted DirecTV, even bought them, if they did not have their 5G Money Pit, which is still not generating income, but it did add over $20 Billion of debt to the money.

Taking over Boost was a mistake also, no one considered it to be a top service, even before Dish took it over.

I said the same thing. Boost was not a good investment since we have had cell phones for about 20 years now. Trying to start a complete cell phone network by scratch and compete with established cell phone companies was a bad idea. If Charlie is smart he will sell some of that bandwith to generate cash, but he will most likely do a restructured bankruptcy. Satellite is now a dying industry. With broadband being spread through the country with the Infrastructure act it is a matter of time before satellite goes completely under.

 

[Bruce]

AT&T effectively got rid of the shrinking satellite tv business with a writedown and spin off and sale but avoided the bankruptcy issues facing Echostar. They say they are quite happy with the money their share of the spinoff is generating.

That money it has been generating shrank last year by $1.6 Billion, this year is expected to be more, hence why AT&T is putting their 70% share up for sale, the first year they were allowed to do so.

By the way, DirecTV lost about 2 Million last year in subscribers, a lot more then Dish and Sling added together.

 

[MitchDeerfield]

We're being too pessimistic about EchoStar/Dish going bankrupt. Their stock is at $13.12 today. If it were going bankrupt the stock would now be near zero. Charlie still has some tricks up his sleeve.