EchoStar/Dish raises doubts about 'ability to continue as a going concern'

[Bruce]

Think this remains to be seen. For the pay TV business in particular, it's not clear what a sustainable service looks like and at what point providers will stop losing customers and return to a manageable level of churn.

The other part of that, investors want to see a possibility of growth, yet all three segments (Dish, Hughes, Boost) are showing no possibility of that, especially from the under 35 group, no one wants to invest in something where subscribers are leaving and/or dying and no one is replacing them.

And yes, I know, they have all that spectrum, yet, what is the plan on how to monetize it.

 

[Juan]

I'd think a large pool of Dish customers are older and don't know how to stream or pay bills online.

So why not stuff a check in envelope and mail it?...or set up credit card autopay the first time they call?

 

[Radioguy41]

I'd think a large pool of Dish customers are older and don't know how to stream or pay bills online.

Stereotypical response, age has nothing to do with it. Either you're up with technology or you're not, irregardless of your age. I've met a lot of young people who have no concept of how to program a timer much less connect wirelessly to their own wi-fi. By the way I'm 83 and I've been into technology since before it was called technology. 😉

 

[nelson61]

Delayed payout, yes. Keeping all assets- not in this world.

There is a great "old" book by Fisher on how these things can get resolved . He was a professor at Harvard? and taught a course on successful negotiations and consulted for individuals, companies and countries.

One of his principles was to establish your best alternative when negotiating a deal.

In this case, the loans are secured by federal licenses that currently have minimal value to anyone big enough to buy them .
.
those making the loans are not interested in having their money tied up with a doubtful chance of getting any part of it back for a number of years

Keeping Echostar viable and succeeding may be their best alternative. Echostar need the assets to survive.

 

[tjboston5676]

Stereotypical response, age has nothing to do with it. Either you're up with technology or you're not, irregardless of your age. I've met a lot of young people who have no concept of how to program a timer much less connect wirelessly to their own wi-fi. By the way I'm 83 and I've been into technology since before it was called technology. 😉

Right. It has nothing to do with age and everything to do with your own personal will to learn and continue learning.

 

[telstar_1]

They shot themselves in the foot over & over over the years by not prioritizing customer service and just thinking in a "today's dollar" mentality. They could have built a much more loyal base and not have fallen into the paradigm of swapping customers back and forth with DTV as minimum terms expire. They could have handily overtaken them in subs and eventually acquired DTV for themselves once regulators would allow. IOW they could have mitigated sub losses to cord cutting and acquired a larger overall base to stretch out a profitable DBS game for years longer to transition into mobile broadband. But now the chickens have come home; they're in a profitability crunch.

 

[Yespage]

What? Dish's problems aren't customer service. I'm still with Dish because they have allowed for cutting the costs without compromising all too much. Dish's problem is what everyone else is dealing with Cable/Sat wise and Charlie seeing the writing on the wall and loading up the company with a tremendous amount of debt in a long-shot ploy to transition Dish into a 5G corporate giant. Dish has the nation's largest 5G network that isn't generating revenue in the country. By far!

If they declare bankruptcy, it all hinges on Step 2 of Charlie's Underwear Gnome 5G plan.

 

[Juan]

They shot themselves in the foot over & over over the years by not prioritizing customer service and just thinking in a "today's dollar" mentality. They could have built a much more loyal base and not have fallen into the paradigm of swapping customers back and forth with DTV as minimum terms expire. They could have handily overtaken them in subs and eventually acquired DTV for themselves once regulators would allow. IOW they could have mitigated sub losses to cord cutting and acquired a larger overall base to stretch out a profitable DBS game for years longer to transition into mobile broadband. But now the chickens have come home; they're in a profitability crunch.

It was too expensive to keep gaining customers...

 

[fmj77]

Stereotypical response, age has nothing to do with it. Either you're up with technology or you're not, irregardless of your age. I've met a lot of young people who have no concept of how to program a timer much less connect wirelessly to their own wi-fi. By the way I'm 83 and I've been into technology since before it was called technology. 😉

Maybe it is stereotypical, but there's also quite a bit of truth to it. I have 2 neighbors in their 80's who still pay all their bills via snail mail. They refuse to do anything online or by automatic draft.

 

[mwdxer1]

The problem with Dish, Direct, Cable, are the programmers. They demand way too much for the consumer to continue to pay for it. Plus many of the channels just run old reruns. With so many free streaming channels and adding in free OTA, more and more and moving in that direction. The talk lately (again) with a Direct/ Dish merge is probably getting closer to reality. Neither service will have enough subs to keep them alive. Direct is in the better shape as they had more subs than Dish and they were first. It isn't "if" it is "when".

 

[navychop]

Sounds like the buggy whip and wheelwright makers are attempting to merge. What’s the point, at this stage of the game?

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

The problem with Dish, Direct, Cable, are the programmers.

This is true... the programmers thought they were smart by selling direct to consumer, and look at the issues they are having now.

 

[Bruce]

This is true... the programmers thought they were smart by selling direct to consumer, and look at the issues they are having now.

They are having problems because of lost per sub fees, advertising revenue way down also.

While true, streaming has lost money at first, but that is true for all businesses.

For example, both DirecTV and Netflix, it had taken them 6 years before their first profitable quarter, Dish and Amazon, 9 years.

Now look at today for streamers
Netflix-a total monster
Hulu-Profitable
Disney+-had their first profitable quarter, it had taken 4.5 years, 1.5 year faster then DirecTV
Paramount+ should turn profitable this year

Does that mean all streamers will make it, of course not.

But give me the upside for any part of Traditional Cable/Satellite by the end of 2025.

Here is the advertising outlook-

In 2016, advertisers spent $60 billion on traditional TV advertising according to Madison. Now that number is projected to drop below $30 billion for traditional televisions.

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/streaming-was-supposed-to-rescue-the-ailing-tv-ad-business-it-hasnt-9fa2d855

Advertisers May Kill Cable TV Before Cord Cutting Does | Cord Cutters News

For years now the death of cable TV has been predicted because of the growing number of Americans ditching cable TV for streaming services. Yet, what may kill cable TV and, more importantly, the cable networks they offer, are advertisers moving away from traditional TV. Many cable TV networks...

cordcuttersnews.com

 

[telstar_1]

It was too expensive to keep gaining customers...

BECAUSE they had shot themselves in the feet so many times. If they had stuck to a model of "customer first" rather than chiseling at every turn, including supporting & promoting local responsible servicing, they wouldn't have had to go to such progressively greater extents of "freebies" to keep signing new subs, simply to overcome their loss of general esteem & goodwill. Their loss of referral-driven new business. Part of this "expense" to keep getting new subs consisted in paying old subs to prod signups- a customer-first service wouldn't have needed to PAY them to generate referral! Like in the early DiSH days, they wouldn't have been able to shut up about how much they liked DiSH! They simply got into a doom loop of loss of luster, 2-year subs and $400 gift cards.

 

[Yespage]

On the other hand, lots of people here were churning for whatever 2 year deal they could get their hands on. It is hard to fight for customers to stay when they have no intention of staying at all.

- DVR killed ad rates
- Newer generation has weened away from Cable/Sat packages altogether
- Programming became more expensive (therefore less common) when Writers demanded to be paid more fairly
- Sports rights acquisitions have been bordering on the insane

As all Cable/Sat are suffering from losses, it seems unlikely that an individual customer service at one company is that much to blame.

 

[navychop]

It’s content. Owners stop providing it to cablecos and satcos, hoping to keep all the largess to themselves. Less of interest available on the traditional providers. Churn.

 

[Bruce]

On the other hand, lots of people here were churning for whatever 2 year deal they could get their hands on. It is hard to fight for customers to stay when they have no intention of staying at all.

- DVR killed ad rates

But was used as a excuse why per sub fees went up so much, because of the lost advertising revenue.

That is why On Demand was pushed so hard, forced advertising, but all that did, was help create streaming services, which were basically ON Demand.

- Newer generation has weened away from Cable/Sat packages altogether

Both my kids, 29/34, have never had a Live TV Service since they left home for College.

My daughter basically gave up on it while I had a TV Service, before College, YouTube and Netflix constantly, watched on her Computer, never turned on her TV.

- Programming became more expensive (therefore less common) when Writers demanded to be paid more fairly

Programming is expensive for all services.

- Sports rights acquisitions have been bordering on the insane

That is a understatement.

I believe it is worse the how you described it.

Fox is currently paying MLB $729 Million a year ( until 2028)

The regular season games they get for airing on Fox/FS1 (and 2) barely register in the rating.

The last World Series had a 4 Million Household average ( out of 131 Million), so for almost $800 Million, they are getting a tad more then 3% watching.

The next NBA Deal, is expected to be $8 Billion a year because of fighting over the rights between the providers, the NBA was originally hoping for $5-6 Billion this year.

The rating for the NBA has been dropping the last 4 years, but that may be because they were largely not on streaming services, that is about to change.

As all Cable/Sat are suffering from losses, it seems unlikely that an individual customer service at one company is that much to blame.

Only a part of it, but TV Providers have been hated for a long time because of their business practices.

 

[telstar_1]

On the other hand, lots of people here were churning for whatever 2 year deal they could get their hands on. It is hard to fight for customers to stay when they have no intention of staying at all.

- DVR killed ad rates
- Newer generation has weened away from Cable/Sat packages altogether
- Programming became more expensive (therefore less common) when Writers demanded to be paid more fairly
- Sports rights acquisitions have been bordering on the insane

As all Cable/Sat are suffering from losses, it seems unlikely that an individual customer service at one company is that much to blame.

Exactly. They were publicly TRAINED not to stay by the general loss of good regard for the provider (vs. competitor) owing to their customer-negative business practices, said training then being REINFORCED by increasing freebies handed out for switching providers. IOW DiSH found itself attempting to PURCHASE goodwill through, like with addiction, dumping increasing amounts of "crack" on new signers, to compensate for its having thrown away traditional values of customer-centered service in a prioritization of signups over servicing. Death spiral. Sure, there would regardless today be effects of "cord cutting," etc., but they would in all likelihood have been able to remain a "going concern" for years longer despite market difficulties simply by having done the viewing public right in the first place.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

You have services like MAX, Peacock, Paramount plus and even Disney + that are all not doing well and most of them have already raised their rates a few times already.

Except for Peacock (which I watch WWE Wrestling events on) the others I sign up for a month and cancel them, then go back and subscribe again a few months later and watch the new stuff they added... and then cancel again. If you are happy to wait you can watch everything and only have to be subscribed for 4 months out of 12.

My wife did upset me though the other day, she changed our Netflix account from the one with 4K included down to the basic one that is given to T Mobile subscribers. I would often use the 4K stuff to test out equipment. She didn't tell me she did it until I was looking for a new 4K / Atmos Title that was supposed to be good. Oh well I will survive.

WWE is moving to Netflix in January, so after that won't need Peacock anymore either.

 

[bnewt]

Maybe it is stereotypical, but there's also quite a bit of truth to it. I have 2 neighbors in their 80's who still pay all their bills via snail mail. They refuse to do anything online or by automatic draft.

with all of the scams & hacking of credit cards, banks, etc., who can blame them
I know some people that rarely purchase anything on line, but have had their credit card used for purchases they didn't make