Do you think 2009 will be a good year for Dish?

[Zero327]

As for Charlie- remember, this is a guy who went from selling big ugly dishes out of the back of a pickup to being a billionaire. Somehow, someway, I suspect he knows a little bit more about what he's doing and why, than anyone on this board.

Credit where credit's due. Charlie is an absolute pro at two things:

1. Counting cards in Vegas,

2. Building his financial wealth and company off the broken backs of his employees for substandard wages and benefits while he pockets the difference.

I can become a billionaire too. All I need to do is find a bank stupid enough to subsidize me, and convince people I actually care about their financial well-being until I can siphon off the money they earn for myself.

No one said Charlie isn't an innovator. We said he's a horrifying employer, a poor leader and a morally questionable man.

 

[Sammy033]

How many BUDs can you fit in the bed of a pickup?

Dunno. I dont know anyone named Bud.

 

[QCK]

Dunno. I dont know anyone named Bud.

You can call and Red-Neck "Bud"

 

[Stargazer]

Dish has the welcome pack and the 9.99 locals only paks to try and keep people from disconnect for income reasons, probably thin margins though. QUOTE]

Most people get disconnected for nonpayment. That 9.99 package aint going to do many people very good if they have to pay a large bill that they let get run up in order to get a 9.99 package. They will just switch providers instead.

Maybe this is why churn is so high. They churn from one provider to the other after running up a bill just to run up another one until they run out of providers.

 

[riffjim4069]

I think 2009 will be a mixed-bag for Dish Network. Heck, I will even go out on the limb and make predictions:

The Good:
- The "new" DVR Technology will be judged not to infringe upon Tivo patents. The Tivo issues quietly goes away by mid-2009
- Dish Network gets control of the subsciber defections and are are able to hold subscriber numbers steady the 2nd half of 2009
- E* announces leading edge receiver technology at CES
- New promotions, packaging and pricing after the New Year
- Video quality improves by summer
- Echostar is profitable (not sure about Dish Network)
- EchoStar announces cable product line (STB, DVR, Sling) at CES 2009
- EchoStar announces direct-to-consumer sales of cable set-top-boxes (goes after the Tivo owned market)
- EchoStar announces a set-top-box distribution deal with a mid-sized cable MSO

The Bad:
- Even with new/existing customer promotions, E* finds is takes time to stem the tide of defectors leaving to D*, FiOS/U-Verse - net loss of 120,000 customer, which is actually a small number.
- E* is unable to bring new products/services to market until summer 2009.
- They suffer a major loss due to an aging satellite fleet.
- EchoStar scraps direct-to-consumer cable set-top-boxes sales...low profit margin/high maintenance costs.


The Ugly:
- EchoStar sufferes a major loss in the courtroom against VOOM
- Dish Network is put up for sale
- No one is wanting to buy Dish Network

 

[MikeD-C05]

I don't see the prediction about Voom coming true at all. Especially since Voom let their programming repeat over and over and over months leading up to them being cut down to 5 channels. They dropped their end of the agreement with DISH and as such they could have their contract voided. Just like they could of stayed on with just 5 hd channels, they resisted and said all or nothing. If I was DISH I would of done the same thing. Voom was fine in its time but we don't need channels that show repeats of programming 55 times a day,just because it is in hd. I do miss Monsters hd and sometimes the Music channel -what ever its name was. I think if anything DISH will win on this lawsuit.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

I'm sure it will be great for E*, But Crappy for the customer.

 

[kb7oeb]

Most people get disconnected for nonpayment. That 9.99 package aint going to do many people very good if they have to pay a large bill that they let get run up in order to get a 9.99 package. They will just switch providers instead.

Maybe this is why churn is so high. They churn from one provider to the other after running up a bill just to run up another one until they run out of providers.

I meant voluntary disconnect to prevent that but I see your point.

 

[Fitzie]

It will be a good year for Dish and for its subscribers. The fleet will be rejuvenated with a couple of new sats. Charlie will be happy. We will be happy. We will all sing.

 

[riffjim4069]

I don't see the prediction about Voom coming true at all. Especially since Voom let their programming repeat over and over and over months leading up to them being cut down to 5 channels. They dropped their end of the agreement with DISH and as such they could have their contract voided. Just like they could of stayed on with just 5 hd channels, they resisted and said all or nothing. If I was DISH I would of done the same thing. Voom was fine in its time but we don't need channels that show repeats of programming 55 times a day,just because it is in hd. I do miss Monsters hd and sometimes the Music channel -what ever its name was. I think if anything DISH will win on this lawsuit.

VOOM says Dish Network insisted VOOM loop the content, so VOOM complied after informing them this would be a mistake. According to their complaint, VOOM states this was intentionally done by E* to cast the VOOM HD channels in a negative light to their HD customers in order to lessen the outcry when E* later illegally terminated the affiliation agreement. E* claims VOOM did not meet the Spend Limit, VOOM says they exceeded the Spend Limit by several million. In a nutshell, Dish Network and VOOM are polar opposites when it comes to the facts in this case. We will just have to wait and see what happens during trial. Dish Network may win this one, but my money is on VOOM.

 

[MikeD-C05]

Looks like you lose. Voom just announced they will suspend all domestic channels of Voom. So now there will be no more Voom to go boom. It just went bust. Besides this is DISH and they will stay locked in a lawsuit and appeal for years. Just look at how long they kept the distant networks case going before they finally had to turn off DISH's version of distants. Seemed like that case ran from 1999 through 2006 before it was finally settled. ANd they still won that one in the end because they used All American Direct to sell their versions of distants on the same numbered networks as before. They also got out of paying all that settlement money to the networks because of FOX being the lone holdout on the settlement. Charlie made out like a bandit and still is getting rent money from AAD every month. The funniest thing is that just about anyone can have distants now using an address in an old "white" area for ota reception. So now you can have your own locals through DISH or "move" and get the one you want, and use a complete different service address for AAD and get east /west coast networks as well. Looks like DISH won on that one. Then there is the still ongoing TIVO case. I suspect that in the end DISH will win on the software changes made to their dvrs and will still come out alright. The worst thing is that they lose and have to pay to license the TIvo software . LORD knows we pay enough dvr fees to handle that one.

 

[Bobby H]

There's a lot of variables that make it difficult to make an honest prediction of how E* will do in 2009. I believe that in order for E* to do well in 2009 they need to do some of the following:

• E* needs to reach agreements with News Corp., Viacom and a number of other media companies in order to carry various HD channels currently offered by rivals like D*. They really need to get a good bit of that done before trying to pass along any price increases in February otherwise they will spark quite a lot of customer outrage and negative churn.

• E* needs to cover the HD LiL markets they offer more effectively. E* has to get better at negotiating with TV station owners to get the problem solved. Carrying just one network affiliate in HD doesn't really qualify E* as covering a certain market. It doesn't count. That situation exists in my viewing market. I'm not adding a 2nd dish to point toward 61.5° merely to pick up one local HD channel. I'll put up a great quality OTA antenna instead (and avoid re-upping my 2 year contract).

There's lots of other smaller things E* could be doing to improve their business, with customer service being a major area of focus for those little things.

One of the few things E* doesn't have to change radically is its hardware.

Eventually, the tiers of HD channel packages will have to re-packaged into the mainstream group of channels rather than remain in a separate, luxury priced group. I believe the viewing numbers on SD-quality channels will begin to collapse within the next couple of years. I would not be surprised to see the SD versions of many cable networks disappear within 5 years, if not sooner.

 

[MikeD-C05]

By the time that Sd finally is gone , both sat providers will have hidden the $10.00 increase in a price hike for programming and then they will announce : OUR HD SERVICES ARE FREE!!!

 

[Stargazer]

I agree with hiding the $10 price increase and making HD free. HD will become the norm but everyone will pay for it one way or another.

 

[navychop]

Voom did not meet their spending limits, unless you accept their creative accounting. They charged large amounts as overhead (mgmt expenses, etc) to in effect, subsidize other portions of their business at the expense of programming. Since the amounts charged were apparently a large increase over amounts historically charged, I doubt they can win that point in court. And with that loss, Voom's case is over.