the market is due an adjustment. within 10 years streaming will cost just as much as cable/sat/ect
retransmission disputes will come to streaming, channel specific streaming costs will drive up the price, ect ect
DISH, DirecTV to merge?
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the market is due an adjustment. within 10 years streaming will cost just as much as cable/sat/ect
retransmission disputes will come to streaming, channel specific streaming costs will drive up the price, ect ect
- Nov 29, 2003
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That is based on the old model of live TV, it is obvious where the future is, that Broadcasters wants to offer their programming direct to consumers.
For Example-
Disney+-All Disney, and based on that $12.99 price which includes ESPN+ and Hulu, how long before they offer regular ESPN for more money, say a few dollars more.
Peacock-All NBC/Universal
HBO MAX-all Warner stuff
Discovery-Starts up early 2020, all owned Discovery content and newly owned like HGTV, Food Network, etc.
Hopefully the free market will take over to keep prices under control, not just in content but in Broadband service since in a couple of years we should have 5G and Starlink type service for choices.
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I expect prices will go up, as you say -- they always do. What I wonder is how many people will sign up for the annual pricing, like Disney is offering, which would keep prices down somewhat. I would sign up for annual subscriptions of Netflix and Hulu if offered, and I already pay for Prime annually. However, I would not pay for Starz or Disney+ annually as things stand.
It wouldn't change things for me drastically TBH. What I watch on those services tends to be Originals. Maybe if Hulu didn't have ABC content, it might affect my wife some, but I would be surprised if Disney pulled that off Hulu.
- Nov 29, 2003
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Since Disney will own 100% of Hulu in a few years ( 60% right now ), I would think all the other content they own will be on Hulu, ABC, Freeform, FX, Fox Television stuff that is now owned by Disney that is considered adult to be on Disney+, etc.
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- Nov 29, 2003
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To have more of the Market, Business 101, if you want to watch the new Star Wars or Marvel series you have to have Disney+, if you want more adult stuff, like say Handmaid’s Tale or Castle Rock you have to have Hulu.
It is just like Traditional Service, if you want to watch The Walking Dead you have to have AMC, if you want to watch Mayans you have toNhave FX.
The biggest problem with Hulu is that it is United States only, over the next few years that will change as rights issues clear up.
Disney+ is already to go worldwide ( United States and a few other countries in 2019) by the end of 2020.
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You got that right. They aren't subscribing to anything traditional. My hometown had at least 10 thriving nightclubs/dance halls for young people from the 70's to the late 90's. The last one just closed down this past week. The only thing left is a few honky tonks where us old folks go and listen to George Jones and Jim Reeves and two step. This is in a town of 125,000.
Young folks seem to be happy just sitting at home with friends, watching a movie and playing video games. Many don't even get a driver's license until they're out of high school.
It's true. When my 16-year-old is over, she turns off the lights and locks herself in her room and watches Netflix for hours on end. We live in a small town where you can walk to the park, the gas station, the swimming pool, but she'd rather sit in the dark and Snapchat and watch TV.
The other bizarre thing they do is watch videos of other people playing video games. I will never understand that.
She has her driver license but has no desire to drive. I guess that's reassuring in some ways.
- Nov 29, 2003
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Both of my kids from Pre-Teenagers to now Young Adults never cared about live TV and still do not.
To be honest I don’t either except for News if something is happening, even the Network stuff we record on the Tablo to binge it when the season is done.
Exactly. (Groundhog Day is a reference to the Bill Murray movie.)
I'm actually surprised by the number of people who don't get that reference. I thought it was ingrained into our cultural lingo by now by that everyone just knew it.
Bingo. Likeliest scenario for AT&T, I think, is to transition as many of their DTV subs over to the forthcoming AT&T TV as possible in the next couple of years. (Lower pricing for the same channels, plus a better set-top box, will do the work in terms of encouraging customer migration.)
Once AT&T feels like they've sucked as much juice out of that orange as they can easily get, DTV will have far fewer subscribers. They're fleeing as it is and once AT&T actively begins sabotaging the service by offering a superior alternative, the numbers will really go down. End of this quarter (9/30/19), DTV will probably have about 16.75 million subs after losing over 1 million just this quarter. By the end of 2021, it's not at all far-fetched to imagine their sub count will have dwindled to 7 million. DISH, meanwhile, will have continued to lose subs too, although at a slower pace, as many of their customers who have the option either cut the cord for streaming alternatives or decide that they get a better deal by bundling cable TV with cable internet. So they might go from a current number north of 9 million down to, let's say, about 7 million too over the next couple of years.
So by early 2022, we'd be looking at two pay TV providers that are significantly smaller than today. The government would be far more likely to approve their merger then than was the case a decade earlier.
The question I have is whether DISH wants to load up on even more of a dying industry. If the whole T-Mo/Sprint merger falls through, meaning that DISH does not suddenly spring into the mobile phone/internet business in a major way, then yeah, maybe they do want to double-down on satellite TV because what else are they going to do? They may as well try to preserve scale, through as-large-as-possible a subscriber base, as long as they possibly can. And eliminating your only direct competitor for rural customers would give them greater pricing power. So in that case, sure, I could see DISH buying what's left of DTV.
But if DISH succeeds into transforming itself into a 5G player, then I think Ergen sees that as the company's escape from becoming "the nursing home of pay TV," making the best they can from a dying satellite TV service. So if the 5G thing happens, I'm not sure Ergen sees a reason to expand his satellite TV business by paying for DTV.
Nostradamus with another end of the world prediction post 
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