I'm in no hurry to upgrade to a 411/211...
I just replaced a leased 811 with a purchased 942, but I plan to hold onto our other leased 811. I cannot see E* rolling out new national HD channels in MPEG-4 (that would be insane)...only rolling out MPEG-4 HD LIL in the top markets. Odds are pretty good they will follow D*'s business model for rolling out MPEG-4 HD LIL, but they will try to do it more efficiently:
1. All new customers (at least those in the top 30 or so DMAs) will receive MPEG-4 receivers with programming commitment.
2. Existing customers will be offered upgraded receivers at a discounted price with a programming commitment. Just how much the upgrade will cost depends on your receive model, the churn rate, and how much customers are willing to pay before screaming foul.
3. Those customers whose purchased HD receivers are still under warranty (811, 942) should be upgraded free of charge when HD LIL is rolled-out to their DMA.
4. Unless you are willing to pay something for your HD LIL upgrade (gotta have HD LIL), you can pretty much wait another 12-24 months and continue to use your existing service "as advertised" until E* replaces replaces all leased receivers and offers further discounted receivers as they migrate to MPEG-4 on their SD channels. At this time, the HD/MPEG-4 receivers will be much cheaper to acquire and older receivers will start falling by the way side.
5. If you don't need HD LIL (I certainly don't) then what's the rush to spend $$$ upgrading your receivers?
Anyway, unless you just gotta have a 411 or 211 (which I can't see since there is currently nothing to watch) then I would just kick-back and wait to see what Charlie had to say on the Big HD Chat (Jan 9th). Again, there is no reason (for me) to upgrade anytime soon. Also, as Simon pointed out, make sure you don't screw over your retailer. I contacted my retailer and had him verify that he wouldn't receive a chargeback when I returned a leased 811 and purchased a 942 through him.