ESPN can never sell the service a la carte. Doing so undoes all of its linear contracts. The price if ESPN were available a la carte to only those that want it (and, remember, most everyone who has gone streaming only, has done so because they do not want it, at least enough to overcome the pennies they are saving) would have to be huge.
"Never"? Never is a long time. What makes you think that ESPN's carriage contracts can't and won't be amended? We're apparently already seeing that with other popular linear channels and their content. CBS, and virtually all of its local station affiliates around the nation, can be purchased a la carte inside Paramount+. NBCU is already placing nearly all of their live linear channel sports that air on NBC and USA -- NFL Sunday Night Football, NASCAR, Olympics, Notre Dame Football, etc. -- as live streams inside Peacock.
So yeah, of course Disney will eventually do the same thing with the live sports that air across their various ESPN linear channels. It's just a question of when they do it and how they package and price it. The reality that Disney has to understand, and that Wall Street must eventually price into their stock, is that ESPN will *never* be as profitable under the direct-to-consumer a la carte model as it has been under the forced-bundle linear cable TV model (which is why some analysts are calling for Disney to sell/spin off ESPN now before that reality gets fully priced in by the Street).
Here's what I see happening. Within the next couple of years, Hulu will get folded into Disney+, making it the company's undisputed flagship DTC streaming product. We'll see the biggest, most expensive live sports events -- the ones that appeal even to a lot of casual sports viewers -- live stream inside Disney+ (alongside whichever linear ESPN cable channels they air on). Things like Monday Night Football, College Football Championship, Wimbledon, etc. (Oh, and Little League World Series, of course.)
The rest of their live ESPN content -- the stuff the mainly appeals to true fans of those particular sports -- will be sold DTC through more than one service. Most logical way to package it, I think, might be as one called ESPN College and another called ESPN Pro, carrying a hodge-podge of college sports in one and pro sports in the other.
My guess, though, is that that situation would only last for a few years, i.e. one or two contract lengths with the relevant sports. By the early 2030s, I think we're going to see the vast majority of sports sold DTC by the leagues/conferences/teams themselves, or maybe with the help of a third party that handles running and marketing it, as Apple will be doing with MLS. But each service will be devoted to carrying all (or nearly all) the regular season games for that particular league, conference, or team. (Well, I suppose it's possible we see a single NCAA-branded app for college sports but perhaps with the option to just purchase a particular conference, e.g. SEC.) In order to reach new fans, a sampling of regular season games, and perhaps all playoff/championship games, will be carried on the various general entertainment DTC services, e.g. Disney+, HBO Max, Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+.
