DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[Yespage]

Yeah, maybe 20 or even 30 people, nationwide.

Are we not including millennials? There are cord cutters that won't get Sat TV just for ST. How many? I have no idea, but hundreds of thousands to millions.

This is niche product. And this is a product, unlike the other leagues’ packages, upon which the “winner” of this bid W I L L lose money and W I L L predicate access to it on buying something else first. That simple.

TBD. Even if you had to get Apple+ to buy ST, that $60 a year, which is close to the fees in a Directv account for a couple months. Amazon is what $150 now? That is a month or two of Directv. Directv is a huge premium just to get ST. Especially for post 1995 DOB'ers where the concept of linear television is much more foreign.

The winner is going to be the NFL in all of this. They get more and more money, we end up paying more and more money. Hopefully Apple+ gets it so I don't need to subsidize it.

 

[slice1900]

Yeah, maybe 20 or even 30 people, nationwide. It is just not a thing. And certainly not more than actually watch the “free” games on a typical weekend, which there is fuzzy math upthread on that idea.

I could believe they can take it from 2 million to 4 million people with broad availability.

The fees will leave it at a loss, just as it was for Directv. They'll have to make up the difference with the local ad slots, and maybe driving more subscribers (won't happen for Amazon since so many already subscribe, but could help a relative newcomer to streaming like Apple)

 

[meStevo]

Yeah, maybe 20 or even 30 people, nationwide.

You keep saying this... It's just hard to take anything else seriously when you do. It doesn't make any sense.

 

[Jimbo]

I could believe they can take it from 2 million to 4 million people with broad availability.

The fees will leave it at a loss, just as it was for Directv. They'll have to make up the difference with the local ad slots, and maybe driving more subscribers (won't happen for Amazon since so many already subscribe, but could help a relative newcomer to streaming like Apple)

With the massive amounts of people available IF it goes to a Streamer, it should do a lot more than that ... at least the Streaming people here thing it will ...

They make it sound like 70% of streamers will want it .... I doubt that many more than 15% at best.

 

[Juan]

With the massive amounts of people available IF it goes to a Streamer, it should do a lot more than that ... at least the Streaming people here thing it will ...

They make it sound like 70% of streamers will want it .... I doubt that many more than 15% at best.

Young streamers want free

 

[Jimbo]

Young streamers want free

Young Streamers will find a hack and get it free ...

 

[Bruce]

Young streamers want free

Young Streamers will find a hack and get it free ...

My kids are young streamers, they pay for the services they want.

Son has Hulu bundle, Netflix and Paramount.

Daughter, just Netflix.

They both use a lot of the free apps, Pluto, You Tube, CBS and ABC News.

I actually have a lot more services that I subscribe to and I am a old fart at 55.

 

[Bruce]

With the massive amounts of people available IF it goes to a Streamer, it should do a lot more than that ... at least the Streaming people here thing it will ...

They make it sound like 70% of streamers will want it .... I doubt that many more than 15% at best.

No one has said 70%.

And, pretty much, everyone is a streamer in one form or another in today’s world, the only ones who are not are those who’s connection sucks or cannot get.

From here-

The proportion of U.S. households who have a video subscription has risen to 85% (up 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and up 2 percentage points year-on-year), after two consecutive quarters of decline. This means there are now 109.4 million households with subscriptions as of December 2021.

85% of US households have a video subscription service

Netflix’s subscriber base is now below two thirds of US subscribers, as penetration continues to decline, despite the success of Squid Game.

www.kantar.com

So, using your guess of 15%, that is, roughly, 16 million households, even I think that is too high, as I have said before, I would believe 8-10 million, which still makes it profitable, specially with Advertising and Commercial Accounts.

 

[navychop]

I am a old fart at 55.

Nope. You’re a young fart.

Now, BOBBY is an old fart.

I’m a middlin fart.

 

[televisionarchivesorlando]

Just the fact they haven't closed the deal yet tells me that the bidders don't want to pay anywhere near what the NFL is asking. Directv has said they will cut a deal to whoever wins. I think the NFL doesn't want Bars and Restaurants to have to count on streaming to get the signal. High-Speed Internet is not available everywhere. My prediction is the NFL will offer the services to all providers like other sports packages. I just don't see the NFL letting Satellite TV subscribers go. I also think Directv and Dish will merge but that's another topic.

 

[Juan]

My kids are young streamers, they pay for the services they want.

Son has Hulu bundle, Netflix and Paramount.

Daughter, just Netflix.

They both use a lot of the free apps, Pluto, You Tube, CBS and ABC News.

I actually have a lot more services that I subscribe to and I am a old fart at 55.

Your lucky

 

[Juan]

If I was really needed to watch my out of market NFL team...I would just buy 4 months of premium sirius streaming and listen..11 x 4 months is $44.. that includes baseball , hockey and basketball..plus college sports...way better than $300 for just football

 

[SamCdbs]

TBD.

Actually already determined. As explained upthread, the break even point on a cash basis is MORE people than watch the ordinary "free" 4:25 game on an average Sunday. The voodoo math about this great millions of people staring dumbly at some device wishing oh wishing it got ST is dumb enough, but it certainly isn't more people than watch the "free" games already.

This is a niche product and a loss leader, and it WILL be predicated on first buying somethign else.

And, it looks more and more likely that DirecTV will make a deal to continue to offer it on a pass through basis (meaning it just collects the money and delivers it to Apple or whoever, keeping none for itself) for commercial accounts, and perhaps residential as well.

 

[Bruce]

And, it looks more and more likely that DirecTV will make a deal to continue to offer it on a pass through basis (meaning it just collects the money and delivers it to Apple or whoever, keeping none for itself) for commercial accounts, and perhaps residential as well.

You keep repeating that without evidence, post a link that shows this to be true.

 

[Jimbo]

If I was really needed to watch my out of market NFL team...I would just buy 4 months of premium sirius streaming and listen..11 x 4 months is $44.. that includes baseball , hockey and basketball..plus college sports...way better than $300 for just football

If you want to LISTEN to your game, instead of SEE it ...

 

[Jimbo]

You keep repeating that without evidence, post a link that shows this to be true.

I'll be thrilled IF it is true ...

 

[Bilbo1]

And, it looks more and more likely that DirecTV will make a deal to continue to offer it on a pass through basis (meaning it just collects the money and delivers it to Apple or whoever, keeping none for itself) for commercial accounts, and perhaps residential as well.

Any sources?

Also, why on God’s green earth would Apple or Amazon agree to this if they are paying ‘exclusive, premium’ price for it like DirecTV did?

There is also precedent for the NFL putting it on a platform not everyone wanted, or could get (um, DirecTV). You think all sports bars have line of site, particularly in forested rural areas?

As for commercial accounts, both Apple and Amazon do commercial/enterprise accounts.

As for hardware… most TVs built in the last 5 years can get Prime and AppleTV+ on apps for their platform. If not, they run on devices cheaper than a 1/6th barrel of a decent craft IPA.

A decent sports bars already can stream anyway… they’ve needed to for Peacock and Paramount+ this past year.

 

[Bruce]

Any sources?

He is getting that from this article-

Disney, Apple and Amazon keep waiting as NFL considers Sunday Ticket offers

The NFL must choose between offers for Sunday Ticket as streamers wait for a decision.

www.cnbc.com

which says-

DirecTV isn’t bidding on the current rights package but is willing to cut a deal with the winning buyer, two of the people said. An agreement, if reached, could lessen the financial burden for the winning streaming platform.

First off, what Financial Burden, both Amazon and Apple are sitting on tons of cash, for either of them, they would barely notice how much ST would cost.

Amazon cash on hand for the quarter ending March 31, 2022 was $66.385B

Apple has too much cash. The technology company now has cash and investments of $202.6 billion.

Then this-


DirecTV would also consider acting as a residential pass-through. Under such an agreement, it could transfer all revenue for Sunday Ticket to the rights owner but still offer it to customers.

Again, DirecTV would consider, what would Apple and Amazon consider, the article seems to source people inside DirecTV, no one from the streaming companies or even the NFL.

Even if Amazon/Apple wants to do such a deal, why does it have to be with DirecTV, it could be with Dish, Amazon even has a slight business partnership with Dish.

Also, why on God’s green earth would Apple or Amazon agree to this if they are paying ‘exclusive, premium’ price for it like DirecTV did?

They would not, it has been pointed out before, even by the NFL Commissioner, that whoever wins it will be the exclusive home of ST and that it will be streaming.

There is also precedent for the NFL putting it on a platform not everyone wanted, or could get (um, DirecTV). You think all sports bars have line of site, particularly in forested rural areas?

Sooner or later, Business Establishments will have to update their equipment and broadband ( if they have not already), streaming is the future, it is not like no one can see it coming, even DirecTV has, the evidence is DirecTV stream and their non update of equipment.

As for commercial accounts, both Apple and Amazon do commercial/enterprise accounts.

Amazon is more then ready to handle commercial/enterprise accounts, Apple not so, I think they would need help, but again, why does it have to be DirecTV, it could easily be Dish for nationwide access.

As for hardware… most TVs built in the last 5 years can get Prime and AppleTV+ on apps for their platform. If not, they run on devices cheaper than a 1/6th barrel of a decent craft IPA.

Yep.

A decent sports bars already can stream anyway… they’ve needed to for Peacock and Paramount+ this past year.

They are not supposed to, but I would guess a lot do anyways.

 

[SamCdbs]

Any sources?

Basic math, middle school.

I use Skedball to get my ratings information. The math is pretty simple

Also, why on God’s green earth would Apple or Amazon agree to this if they are paying ‘exclusive, premium’ price for it like DirecTV did?

Because they are not capable of delivering to the number of commercial establishments that want it. As discussed upthread, the number of such places which cannot get, or which have no other use for, HD video quality internet is huge.

There is also precedent for the NFL putting it on a platform not everyone wanted, or could get (um, DirecTV).

ST has been available over the internet for the tiny fraction that cannot get DirecTV for years. But you miss the point. You know who had DirecTV? People that want ST. The voodoo math of saying "well, if X% of DirecTV people have ST, then if it was on the internet then the same % would get it from the entire society, is just silly. People choose DirecTV because they want ST, people choose other things because they don't.

You think all sports bars have line of site, particularly in forested rural areas?

Haven't been to a lot of sports bars in rural forested areas. Have been to a lot that cannot get HD video quality internet, or which have no need of it.

As for commercial accounts, both Apple and Amazon do commercial/enterprise accounts.

They do? Yes, you can google up a commercial side. That is not the same as providing the full set of TV channels that sports bars, et al, need. DirecTV does that.

Since streaming is just not ready for prime time, in terms of providing video to the bars that need it, the best thing to do is to use the technology that is already there. DirecTV

B/R Live latest to struggle with streaming live sports

B/R Live struggled early in its biggest exclusive yet, and its issues with "The Match" prove once again just how hard streaming live sports really is.

www.si.com

A decent sports bars already can stream anyway… they’ve needed to for Peacock and Paramount+ this past year.

"Decent" and "virtually all" are two different concepts.

 

[Bilbo1]

They are not supposed to, but I would guess a lot do anyways.

For Peacock: Home

Because they are not capable of delivering to the number of commercial establishments that want it. As discussed upthread, the number of such places which cannot get, or which have no other use for, HD video quality internet is huge.

You could have actually answered the question. It was asked from a point of view…

You answered the question from the point of view of the subscriber, not the service provider. It seems you are coming form a ‘wishful thinking’ point of view.

Try this: If I pay a extra for an exclusive right, why would I want it to not be an exclusive to me? From the middle school math perspective, would you pay extra for exclusive to only make it non exclusive?

The short answer is ‘No!’. If they were planning to allow people to get it through other providers, they could make the offer under those terms for a lower cost.

They do? Yes, you can google up a commercial side. That is not the same as providing the full set of TV channels that sports bars, et al, need. DirecTV does that.

What need is there for channels for sports? There is none. Sport events are short individual programs that can be packages as video data streams.

Pay per view and the league out-of-market packages have shown that. Those channels on DirecTV were short term mappings if streams to a channel number. The streams could be (and have been) remapped during the season, if needed for something else. The channel number may have remained, but that is virtual.

Channels are arbitrary anachronisms. They had meaning for analog systems under protocols like NTSC.

Since streaming is just not ready for prime time, in terms of providing video to the bars that need it, the best thing to do is to use the technology that is already there. DirecTV

I’ve been going to sports bars streaming the EPL for years now. Since NBC launched Sports Gold. Every week, there were EPL numerous games that weren’t available via satellite. I remember when DirecTV had overflow channels for these games. I was angry when these channels went away and NBC created gold and started charging $50 per season for it.

Never had any issues with streaming quality.

When was the last time you went to a sports bar to watch a game?