Things we know, and things we don’t.
- If you read the articles literally, this is for home viewer rights only. That means that the NFL is going back to the well for the commercial rights. Google does have a “relationship” with DISH, but if you read it literally, it is not like Amazon TNF where Amazon is reselling it to DirecTV, but rather Google never bought the commercial package in the first place. DirecTV, already in all the sports bars, et al, and with the all important RSNs (imagine a sports bar that says “no, we really can’t show our team’s games” staying in business very long, is the obvious choice.
- Discussions of the CURRENT YTTV cancelation policy are irrelevant. They are using this package just like DirecTV did, and will probably have a very similar sign up policy.
- Similarly discussions of it being available “a la carte” via the YT Primetime marketplace, are not mentioned in any article. It just says that said package will be sold there. Never says it won’t be predicated on buying multiple other streamers through it as predication.
Predictions?
The literal reading of the commercial rights is correct, and a deal with a DBS provider will be announced later. 85% chance it is DirecTV, probably via one of its third party deals like it uses to distribute some fight content.
YTTV will adopt a customer sign up policy very close to what DirecTV had. They are not going to let people churn through, considering they are losing money on every ST sale. This is an exact copy of DirecTV’s game plan.
The Primetime marketplace is much ado about if not nothing, very little. One of two things will happen. Either they really do sell it a la carte, but at a price that makes sense if they are not using it for predication. $750 to $1000. Or, much more likely, you will have to buy a number of other streamers as predication. My guess would be at least four other streamers as predication. Why would they sell this at a loss?
The long term discussion/prediction? Discussion of the DirecTV business plan (loss leader based on predication) has been discussed before this thread began. It is now YTTV’s business plan. I was always agnostic about it, but whatever your opinion on it, be consistent now. My long term opinion is that, and the market agrees, (down 3.5% today, 22% YTD) is that times have changed. DirecTV was getting an edge with a unique offering in a three way race (cable, DISH, DirecTV) . This is no longer the case. YTTV (assuming its not stupid enough to actually sell it a la carte, which it isn’t) is just one of 20 and soon to be 40 choices for LINEAR television, which that in and of itself is now something a certain segment does without to save money. Time will tell.