Directv to shift away from Satellite?

[Tampa8]

Just to add a little more info on what At&t is doing.... This is brilliant I give them huge credit. They are installing a cell system for First responders so they can use cell service more intensely because they will not face congestion on the towers and getting paid ...... 6.5 Billion dollars.. The install includes putting up towers virtually everywhere INCLUDING LOCATIONS THEY WERE NOT ALLOWED TO BEFORE.
They then will scale every tower they own - including of course the new ones and install new equipment for everyone else that will double the download speed you are now getting from At&t.
This to me sounds like a dream situation for At&t to provide more than just cell service at those speeds.

So how does that change anything to them deciding between obtaining content or giving that up?

Here is an easy to understand description.
Get ready to double your cell data speeds - if you have AT&T - The Solid Signal Blog

 

[whitewolf8214]

Just to add a little more info on what At&t is doing.... This is brilliant I give them huge credit. They are installing a cell system for First responders so they can use cell service more intensely because they will not face congestion on the towers and getting paid ...... 6.5 Billion dollars.. The install includes putting up towers virtually everywhere INCLUDING LOCATIONS THEY WERE NOT ALLOWED TO BEFORE.
They then will scale every tower they own - including of course the new ones and install new equipment for everyone else that will double the download speed you are now getting from At&t.
This to me sounds like a dream situation for At&t to provide more than just cell service at those speeds.

So how does that change anything to them deciding between obtaining content or giving that up?

Here is an easy to understand description.
Get ready to double your cell data speeds - if you have AT&T - The Solid Signal Blog

Thanks for sharing everyone

 

[NashGuy]

They will never move everyone over to Internet based Streaming ...
Theres a whole lot of people that have No interest in Streaming TV ... sure you young guys may be up on all that but the majority of people with D* are older ... I know I do stream a little, but thats only if theres something that I decide I want to watch that isn't currently on.

You shouldn't think of the forthcoming service -- which will essentially be full DirecTV delivered via the internet -- as "streaming". As others have said here, it will be accessed by an AT&T issued set-top box and remote control. It's going to feel like "traditional pay TV" to the end user, it's just that the signal will be delivered through the internet rather than via satellite or cable QAM. The remote control will have channel and volume up and down buttons and a 0-9 keypad, along with more advanced stuff like voice search/control.

In fact, I would bet it will be the SAME box that they use as the next-gen Genie Mini, the C71, which you can read about here based on AT&T's submission of the C71 to the FCC last fall:
DirecTV to Launch Android TV-Based OTT Set-Top Box (EXCLUSIVE)

The current Genie Mini is the C61, which is used in conjunction with the HS17 home server, which contains the actual satellite tuners and DVR hard drive. I'm betting that the forthcoming C71 can either be paired with the next-gen HS27 home server for satellite customers (which is hinted at in the C71 user manual at the FCC website) OR be used as a standalone box for those customers who get their service delivered via the internet rather than satellite. The user interface and overall experience will be very similar regardless of which way the signal is actually delivered to your home.

But, as AT&T has stated, the costs of new customer acquisition will be a lot less for internet-based customers than for satellite-based ones since the former does not require a truck-roll pro install, a rooftop dish, new internal wiring or the HS27 server. And they plan to pass a lot of those cost savings on to the internet-based customers, meaning they'll be charged regular monthly prices starting at about $80 instead of $120 for satellite. Yet they say they'll still be making the same margins on the internet-based customers. And given that the up-front acquisition costs are lower, those same margins actually mean a higher return on investment.

I don't think any current DTV satellite customer should worry that they will be forced to transition away from satellite delivery any time in the next few years. AT&T knows that the transition to internet-based delivery will be a long one and that there are a lot of folks, particularly in rural areas, who won't be able to switch since they don't have quality home broadband service available (yet). Data caps will also be an issue for some multi-person households; Comcast internet is plenty fast enough to support all the video streaming you want but if you exceed 1 TB in usage in a month, you'll incur extra fees. AT&T has a similar data cap policy for their home internet services, although I'm sure they'll waive that for DirecTV streaming if the law continues to allow it. (Strict net neutrality laws pending in some states, like CA and OR, may preclude them from zero-rating data for their own TV services.)

What will be really interesting to watch next month is the ruling handed down on the AT&T/Time Warner merger. If AT&T is required to spin something off, as the DOJ wishes, as a condition for the merger to go through, AT&T absolutely will NOT spin off the Turner channels. Owning that content, with the ability to earn lucrative targeted advertising fees on those channels, is a key part of their future strategy. The other option on the table for divestment is the DTV satellite service. I think AT&T would be loathe to unload that right now too, since they want to be able to transition those subs over to their forthcoming internet-delivered service. I do foresee them spinning off satellite TV a few years down the road, once a majority of those customers have transitioned over to internet-delivered TV service. But if the choice was between completely calling off the merger and divesting the satellite TV business right now, which would they choose?

 

[Tampa8]

Exactly and exactly what some of us are saying and thinking. I can't stress enough no one thinks At&t was anywhere near ready to divest of Directv. But I also can read the tea leaves at some point that is their plans. With that in mind if At&t must make a decision now between content or selling off one of their delivery systems I would have to think it's selling off. Who knows if they will have the opportunity again on this content while they already have what appears to be future of delivery services without Directv. But we don't know of course what they will do only as I say reading the tea leaves.

 

[slice1900]

The current hardware can't cost them much to make. Probably less than $200 for the HS17, and clients are definitely under $50.

Had someone ask me where I got the idea the HS17 cost under $200 to make. The closest comparison I can find is a teardown for Tivo's 6 tuner Roamio, done three years ago in early 2015, which estimated a manufacturing cost of $170. It has one full band capture chip and 6 demodulators versus two full band capture chips and somewhere between 8 and 12 demodulators, and a smaller hard drive, but prices go down over time and the Roamio has video output the HS17 does not, so if anything the HS17 should today cost less than the $170 the Roamio did back then.

Teardown: TiVo Roamio TCD848000 | Electronics360

 

[Jimbo]

Had someone ask me where I got the idea the HS17 cost under $200 to make. The closest comparison I can find is a teardown for Tivo's 6 tuner Roamio, done three years ago in early 2015, which estimated a manufacturing cost of $170. It has one full band capture chip and 6 demodulators versus two full band capture chips and somewhere between 8 and 12 demodulators, and a smaller hard drive, but prices go down over time and the Roamio has video output the HS17 does not, so if anything the HS17 should today cost less than the $170 the Roamio did back then.

Teardown: TiVo Roamio TCD848000 | Electronics360

Wow, I would guess that it cost a LOT less than that .... when they are buying them im mass quantity like they are.

 

[I WANT MORE]

I will be keeping a close eye on this development.
I came home yesterday to find that the city planted an oak tree it my boulevard that will reach 40' tall.
After a few years it will be in direct line of my satellite dish.

On a side note, I wonder how this might affect "movers"
Since the "signal" will no longer be a "spot beam" would one be able to access any locals they desired?

 

[Jimbo]

I will be keeping a close eye on this development.
I came home yesterday to find that the city planted an oak tree it my boulevard that will reach 40' tall.
After a few years it will be in direct line of my satellite dish.

On a side note, I wonder how this might affect "movers"
Since the "signal" will no longer be a "spot beam" would one be able to access any locals they desired?

Remember, if its just been planted it will be YEARS before you'll have to worry about it ...
Also, the Sats are not at where you think the dish is pointed at, they are actually MUCH higher up than the dish points.

 

[slice1900]

Wow, I would guess that it cost a LOT less than that .... when they are buying them im mass quantity like they are.

Are the HS17s really being made in "mass quantities" yet though? AFAIK Directv is still only offering them to upgrade existing customers - they are still making HR54s and most long time customers won't want an HS17 once they find out they'll have to give up their HR2x. So I figured the HS17 volumes are probably comparable to Tivo's rather modest volumes. If I was comparing it to the HR54 I would have assumed Directv was getting lower pricing because their volumes would be 5-10x Tivo's.

When they being offering it to new customers (which I'm guessing won't happen until the HS27, because if they were going to do it with the HS17 they would have by now) the volumes will be a lot higher since they'd finally stop making HR54s. There are other drivers that might pump up the volume even higher, like when they start allowing commercial accounts to use clients so they'll need a lot of servers, and if they ever allow more than one per account for residential customers they would become an option for customers for whom one isn't enough for various reasons.

The HS27 might also be able to save a little money by cutting back on RAM, since all the processing for apps will be taking place on the clients instead, so I could see it costing as little as $120. It'll never be able to really get cheap because hard drives pretty much bottom out at around $50.

 

[Jimbo]

Are the HS17s really being made in "mass quantities" yet though? AFAIK Directv is still only offering them to upgrade existing customers - they are still making HR54s and most long time customers won't want an HS17 once they find out they'll have to give up their HR2x. So I figured the HS17 volumes are probably comparable to Tivo's rather modest volumes. If I was comparing it to the HR54 I would have assumed Directv was getting lower pricing because their volumes would be 5-10x Tivo's.

When they being offering it to new customers (which I'm guessing won't happen until the HS27, because if they were going to do it with the HS17 they would have by now) the volumes will be a lot higher since they'd finally stop making HR54s. There are other drivers that might pump up the volume even higher, like when they start allowing commercial accounts to use clients so they'll need a lot of servers, and if they ever allow more than one per account for residential customers they would become an option for customers for whom one isn't enough for various reasons.

The HS27 might also be able to save a little money by cutting back on RAM, since all the processing for apps will be taking place on the clients instead, so I could see it costing as little as $120. It'll never be able to really get cheap because hard drives pretty much bottom out at around $50.

The HS17's for New Subs have been being put in up here for a good 6 month or more now.

 

[CSM]

I saw this interesting video on Verizon's 5g deployment.

 

[navychop]

Of COURSE I believe they’re telling the WHOLE truth. Especially when that tower is hit with hundreds of streams.

 

[mdram]

all the distances used were low, 3000ft, 1/3 mile, ect
what about real life distance?

 

[Tampa8]

I will be keeping a close eye on this development.
I came home yesterday to find that the city planted an oak tree it my boulevard that will reach 40' tall.
After a few years it will be in direct line of my satellite dish.

On a side note, I wonder how this might affect "movers"
Since the "signal" will no longer be a "spot beam" would one be able to access any locals they desired?

You can't now get an out of market local by using streaming services why would that change? The Networks have complete control of that may it be via Satellite, Cable, Streaming etc... A very rare exception is one legal service meant for those out of the Country that give one specific set of locals. That service does not have a system to check for your location once the account is set up.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

T16 is currently under construction.

Thanks I missed that.

 

[NashGuy]

all the distances used were low, 3000ft, 1/3 mile, ect
what about real life distance?

Those ARE the real-life distances for millimeter wave 5G wireless. Which is why next-gen mobile phones will (at least for the foreseeable future) be accessing both 5G and 4G LTE. The trade-off with millimeter wave frequencies is that they offer a ton of bandwidth but they don't travel very far (or penetrate through objects very well either). In dense urban environments, there will be a ton of small 5G cells deployed that mobile phones can access. But once you get out from the urban core, there will be much less 5G availability (unless you're talking about 5G over lower non-millimeter wave frequencies, as T-Mobile plans to deploy, but then I'm not sure how that's much different from existing 4G).

For fixed wireless home internet, 3000 ft is a pretty long distance. In an urban or suburban neighborhood, think how many homes could be within a 3000 ft radius of a small 5G tower. That's an area of one square mile. Verizon is betting that it will be less costly for them to offer those homes high-speed internet over 5G than it would be to run fiber all the way to each individual home. (The 5G tower itself will likely need to have fiber run to it though.) And of course homes have the benefit of being stationary rather than moving targets for reception. And it's a lot easier to engineer a highly receptive 5G antenna for home use (to be placed in a tower-facing window or even outside on the roof or under the eaves) than it is to be crammed into a tiny mobile phone.

And then Verizon will get double usage out of those neighborhood 5G towers because they will also offer coverage to 5G-capable phones starting in 2019.

 

[Jimbo]

Also remember that 3000 ft as a crow flies, is much different than 3000 ft as fiber or cable is placed.

This sounds much the same as what att has been talking about, without the glossy video.

 

[slice1900]

There are some lower frequency 5G bands that will be used for initial deployments - these are the ones that will be targeted for mobile devices, because they are still low enough in frequency (3 - 4 GHz) that they can penetrate buildings if the tower is close by (for most people you'll fall back to LTE when inside your house) 5G fixed wireless deployments will use the higher frequency ranges which are in the high 20s and 30s GHz.

That's higher than Directv's Ka band and thus will suffer even more from rain fade, leaves blocking the signal, etc. Even reflective house wrap and low-e glass will likely be a problem - so if your house is built with those modern insulation techniques you will need to put your fixed wireless antenna outside unless the 'tower' is so close you can hit it with a rock thrown from your yard. It probably wouldn't work too well in a neighborhood like mine with huge trees everywhere, satellite isn't an option for most here and high frequency fixed wireless 5G won't be either.

While 5G mobile will be able to use existing tower sites, fixed wireless using the higher frequencies will need MANY new tower sites. However, those very high frequencies mean tiny antennas which would allow sticking them on top of telephone poles or street lights - assuming the local government doesn't make permitting for them as hard as they do for traditional towers because of NIMBYs worried about "radiation".

 

[NashGuy]

That's higher than Directv's Ka band and thus will suffer even more from rain fade, leaves blocking the signal, etc. Even reflective house wrap and low-e glass will likely be a problem - so if your house is built with those modern insulation techniques you will need to put your fixed wireless antenna outside unless the 'tower' is so close you can hit it with a rock thrown from your yard. It probably wouldn't work too well in a neighborhood like mine with huge trees everywhere, satellite isn't an option for most here and high frequency fixed wireless 5G won't be either.

Keep in mind, though, that 5G antennas (at least stationary ones for home use) benefit from massive MIMO and beamforming. Those advances have allowed 5G to be received with high throughputs (100 Mbps to 1+ Gbps) in situations that naysayers were originally saying would be impossible for millimeter wave 5G: longer distances, non-direct-line-of-sight, lots of foliage, rainy/snowy weather, etc. Look, I'll always take fiber to the home over wireless transmission (given the availability and the same pricing). But I do think 5G is going to impact the home internet service market. Keep an eye on what Starry is doing too. They're trying to offer their millimeter wave platform as a turnkey solution that can be licensed and rolled out by other companies across the country. Will be interesting to see if there are takers.

Are similar technologies (massive MIMO, beamforming, etc.) in use for DTV's ka band satellite signals?

 

[Juan]

Of COURSE I believe they’re telling the WHOLE truth. Especially when that tower is hit with hundreds of streams.

Their 5g is fixed 5g..meaning they put a minitower on a telephone pole in individual neighborhoods and people stream from that..not like 4g where everyone shares a cell tower