(I don't think the 600/700 MHz range is useful for fixed wireless, there just isn't enough of it and frequencies that low are too valuable for mobile devices to waste on fixed wireless)
I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that. I believe it IS the 600/700 MHz range in which T-Mobile plans to offer fixed wireless home internet in rural areas. They have a lot of it now and are deploying it as fast as they can (even offering extra cash to TV stations to repack early and turn over their spectrum ASAP). But their stated plans so far do seem to indicate that it will pretty much only be rural areas where they'll offer that home service. I don't think they're going to "waste" that spectrum on fixed wireless in the metro areas (where most homes already have 2, and sometimes 3, home broadband options). In those denser areas, yes, it's probably better for T-Mo to use that spectrum to better serve mobile customers. Those lower range frequencies penetrate inside buildings quite well and that's historically been one of T-Mo's weaknesses (which is likely why they were the first carrier to aggressively embrace wi-fi calling).
Dish (or whoever buys their licenses) easily has enough spectrum to sell say 100 Mbps service in rural areas, which is more than enough for streaming TV plus other internet needs and more to the point is more than they get now and INFINITELY better than what they get now. GEO satellite internet is not competitive with that at any speed, due to its latency, and wired just isn't an option out there or we wouldn't be talking about how to get internet to rural customers...
Yes, no argument there. (Look, I was never implying that gigabit speed internet is
necessary for anyone. I tend to think it's a waste of money for most folks. I'm happy with my 50 Mbps service that never fails to stream 4K HDR at full quality.) So the question isn't what could theoretically be done with the spectrum that Dish owns. The question is whether anyone wants to buy it from them and then develop that spectrum and, if so, how would they use it? It isn't clear that either AT&T or Verizon care to spend the money for it since they didn't do so in the first place when the spectrum was up for auction not that long ago. Now, if T-Mo and Sprint do merge, and keep all of their current spectrum, that does change the competitive landscape, putting the newly merged company ahead of both Verizon and AT&T in total spectrum holdings. So either or both company may feel the need to buy Dish's spectrum to better compete against the New T-Mo in general, regardless of whether Verizon or AT&T would actually use any of that new spectrum for rural fixed wireless. (Perhaps they would just keep it all for mobile use, figuring that rural homes are such a small sliver of the overall market -- about 14% of the US population -- that it wouldn't make sense to compete there against existing landline broadband and T-Mobile fixed wireless, plus other emerging options, including LEO satellite and low-band TV white space spectrum. And perhaps AT&T ends up serving some rural areas with their AirGig tech if the economics make sense.)
As for Dish fully developing that spectrum themselves to become a full-fledged home and/or mobile internet provider, I don't see it. That would take a ton of capital and expertise that they don't have. They're only building out a relatively cheap narrowband IoT network on their spectrum to avoid forfeiting those licenses by the FCC build-out deadline of March 2020. If they were to actually develop their spectrum to its full potential, to be a major B2C service, they would need a major partner with deep pockets. You're probably talking about a merger or acquisition at that point.
So, in my view, buying Dish stock right now is a pretty risky proposition. It isn't at all clear that Ergen's bet on that spectrum is going to save the company from a long, slow decline.[/QUOTE]
