DirecTV Q4 Earnings Call - Notes & Details 2/13

[Juan]

So by the same logic if AT&T purchased Dish there would be a bunch of people that would leave just because they don't like AT&T? As I said unless if goes to sh*t I don't think people would leave just because Malone now owns it, if there are it would be a very small group IMHO.

no if John Malone (TCI Cable) bought Dish there would be a big subscriber drop. he has a track record of raising rates every 6 months. He is the man that made people hate cable companies..perhaps he has mellowed in his older years..time will tell

 

[ScoBuck]

no if John Malone (TCI Cable) bought Dish there would be a big subscriber drop. he has a track record of raising rates every 6 months. He is the man that made people hate cable companies..perhaps he has mellowed in his older years..time will tell

1) I thought the Dolans are the ones that made people hate cable.

2) What percentage of people even know who owns DirecTV (or DISH)? I believe it is a very LOW number. Just because the small percentage of enthusiasts that go to sites like this do, don't give that much credit to the general population.

 

[rad]

no if John Malone (TCI Cable) bought Dish there would be a big subscriber drop. he has a track record of raising rates every 6 months. He is the man that made people hate cable companies..perhaps he has mellowed in his older years..time will tell

How many years has it been since Malone owned TCI, wasn't it around 8+ years ago that he sold out to AT&T? Since then the landscape has changed a bit with DBS being a much bigger player then it was back then plus the telco's are now in the mix. The new landscape would IMHO keep him from raising prices out of whack from the compition.

 

[jacmyoung]

Target HD-DVR cost by end of year under $200 (COST - Not Retail) vs. over $400 last year.

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My Thoughts:

...We could see another price drop on the HD-DVR as they get their to-build cost around $200.
I believe from prior calls - that cost is around $300 right now.
I would hope we see $99 or $149 for mainstream come 2009

They are up to around 40% + having HD or DVR, target 50% this year

See you again in 3 months!

Thanks for the summary. I think he said in the Q3 call that the projected HDDVR cost would be in the low $200's by the end of Q1 08. My feeling is the $99 HDDVR cost will be mainstream in Q3 if not sooner, and "free" before the end of 2008.

However from the sub gain, compared to the 2007 Q3 number, there is no indication that the large number of new HD channels had much impact. Maybe the upfront cost of HD/HDDVR was still an issue.

 

[jcrandall]

Thanks for the summary. I think he said in the Q3 call that the projected HDDVR cost would be in the low $200's by the end of Q1 08. My feeling is the $99 HDDVR cost will be mainstream in Q3 if not sooner, and "free" before the end of 2008.

However from the sub gain, compared to the 2007 Q3 number, there is no indication that the large number of new HD channels had much impact. Maybe the upfront cost of HD/HDDVR was still an issue.

600,000 new subs to HD <or> DVR ( they don't clarify which)

I think the $99 by Q3 is aggressive, maybe end of year, but I don't think it will be Q3.

Fall is a heavy growth time with new shows starting up.
Perhaps early Q4 at the earliest, I don't think they'll drop it until after the rush for NFL & Fall TV.

 

[Juan]

1) I thought the Dolans are the ones that made people hate cable.

2) What percentage of people even know who owns DirecTV (or DISH)? I believe it is a very LOW number. Just because the small percentage of enthusiasts that go to sites like this do, don't give that much credit to the general population.

TCI was the LARGEST CABLE COMPANY in the country. I used to subscribe to TCI cable. They were horrible. Cablevision owns a bunch of former TCI service areas in the NY/NJ region.. Iwould not sign a 2 year contract with D* till the dust settles When he takes control. he will turn D* into another money grubbing cable TV company.. His disputes with programmers made charlie look like a wussie

 

[Jhon69]

no if John Malone (TCI Cable) bought Dish there would be a big subscriber drop. he has a track record of raising rates every 6 months. He is the man that made people hate cable companies..perhaps he has mellowed in his older years..time will tell

Still have to remember too that even though Liberty will be the largest stockholder.Mr. Malone will still have to discuss things with Mr. Carey.

 

[Juan]

Still have to remember too that even though Liberty will be the largest stockholder.Mr. Malone will still have to discuss things with Mr. Carey.

umm Mr carey will work for malone..not vice versa

 

[Jhon69]

umm Mr carey will work for malone..not vice versa

That is true.But Mr. Carey runs DirecTV.
Liberty is will be one of the stockholders.

 

[shibby191]

99.9% of people have no idea who owns these big megalith corporations. To think any significant number of people will leave a company based on who owns it just isn't in touch with reality. Heck, there is a huge % of the population that doesn't even know who the president of the US is for crying out loud. People are sheep.