DirecTV Q4 Earnings Call - Notes & Details 2/13

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jcrandall

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The Q4 Earnings call is 2/13 at 2pm.

If you'd like to listen the the call, a recorded copy is available here:

DirecTV Q4 Earnings Call 2/13 2pm ET

Our Coverage is Complete.

See the Second post for the financials from Q4 and the end of DirecTV's year.

See the Third post for my attempt to trascript the Q&A part of the call, with my comments at end.
:)

Enjoy!
 
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Here is a copy of their earnings release:

DirecTV - Investor Relations - News Release

Here are some points I found interesting:

DIRECTV U.S. Revenues Increase 14% to $4.4 Billion
-- Average Monthly Revenue Per Subscriber (ARPU) Grew 8.3% to $87.40

DIRECTV Group Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortization Increases 21% to $1.1 Billion (DIRECTV U.S. Up 14% to $1.0 Billion)

DIRECTV U.S. Net Subscriber Additions of 275,000 Driven by Strong Gross Additions and the Lowest Monthly Churn Rate in 8 Years of 1.42%

This 15 basis point reduction in monthly churn to 1.42% was largely due to the significant growth in customers with HD and DVR services--increasing from about 30% of our subscriber base last year to over 40% this year (Chase Carey)
-------
Full Year Review

In 2007, The DIRECTV Group's revenues of $17.25 billion increased 17%

Operating profit before depreciation and amortization in 2007 increased 23% to $4.17 billion

----

My Thoughts:

All in all - DirecTV is adding subscribers quickly, lowering their subscriber losses (churn) and increasing their revenue per subscriber. Looks like their HD strategy is working quite well.

And for anyone who thinks those 2 year agreements aren't important, subscriber acquisition costs (advertising, installation, equipment costs, etc) rose from $626 in 2006 to $716 in 2007 :)

We'll have more from the call later today. Often times the information on what DirecTV is working on and timelines come during the Q&A portion of the call, so look for more information after 3pm EST.
 
Target HD-DVR cost by end of year under $200 (COST - Not Retail) vs. over $400 last year.

SAC (acquisition costs) driven up by going after customers we want vs. those we don't (credit)

Economy (subprime market issues) not expected to impact our operations / results.

FIOS Competition?FIOS competitio 6 millions homes approx, compete as a cable company, seeing a small impact in some markets.
We're competing in each market, not a one-size fit all strategy.

NFL Sunday Tickey exclusive - expires 2010 - what are plans to keep / change?
It's early, 2011 fall is when we're talking, great property for us at a big price.
We've done great job and NFL values what we've done.
Alot of dynamics to happen before we figure out, we would like to keep it.
There could be price at which it doens't work, but we value the relationship with the NFL.
We've done great things with superfan and HD for NFL sunday ticket.
We hit our targets and had great growth - hit our goals for Sunday Ticket.

Goals of producing content?
We have a lot of room to grow and expand. Open mind when considering content and evaluting opportunities.
Our goal is to grow this business to everything it can be. Not to produce content.

Demographics of customer quality?
Consider income, homeownership, an array of things, etc.
We have a statistic model that is unique to us, so I won't put it out there.
We base value of customer to choose offerings and value of relationship.

Churn based on cost of box to customer, considered price drop?
It's a factor, don't think it is a huge one. Becomes back of mind as customer years go by.
2 year contracts on advanced products, after 2 years, upfront costs doens't reduce churn.
Plan to continue charging something up front, economic decision.

AT&T?
Both us and echostar talking to them. Up to AT&T. Expect to hear more in fall.
Already have a working relationship, so no pressure.

700mhz auction? Decision not to participate related to Libery deal?
We're not in it, nothing to do with Liberty, our view is broadband is a tough place.
Building new technology tough go, and a lot of money. Talking billions to acquire and build it out.
Goal to enter broadband business with out service, through partnerships.

Stragety on WildBlue?
No change with liberty transaction. Good relationship - but early.
Rural produt, good option for when no other option.
Niche product, can be a nice business.

Plans for D11/12?
D12 no launch plans finalized yet.

Life of fleet remaining? Replacement birds?
HD satellite over 10 years, we have a fresh fleet :)

HD Must carry change outlook?
Came out of blue, quickly, trying to understand all the things involved.
Premature to say.
Robust fleet with lot of flexibility, especially with Spaceways.
Need to get better understanding first.

Stock Dividend considered?
Not prepared, reviewing with board.

Digital Transition?
No magic, national reach, mostly elderly and ethnic that need to be targeted.
Our subscribers only may have issues for those 3rd/4th sets.

Advanced products / growth?
Expect good growth in 2008.
Continue to expect 10% advanced product integration 10% a year
(meaning 10% more customers have HD or DVR each year)
Over time these become mainstrem in homes, not there yet, but lots of momentum.
We're reaching mature product status - 40 to 50% of our households.

Advnaced services progress? Other things coming? Integrating broadband with video?
We've launched VOD in limited basis. HD-DVR only now.
We'll talk more in a couple weeks at investor day :( (Sucks for us reading this now)
Working to get the content on broadband to be like the content on the TV.
Need to ensure we don't setup for a loss of customers to broadband only, don't want to lose customers.
Grow in an intelligent way and be a leader.

ARPU growth from price increases? How to continue pushing price increases with competition? Controlling programming costs?
Increase is at begininng of year - 3 to 4%, not in last quarter.
Offsets our other competition, it's about the same.
Price increase offset in new customer offers right now.
Competition today do it mostly in early calander year, so do we
Price competition is mostly in the offer side.
many try to hide their price increase, confusing customers, we don't do that.
We need to keep an eye on other players struggling, use it as a way to compete as they raise their prices.
We feel good about where we are today.


All comments are my best attempte to transcribe the comments and answers given on the 2/13 DirecTV earnings call.
These are not exact transcriptions, all added comments are my personal view/feedback.


--------

My Thoughts:

Not much there, other than very happy with their results and maintaining the cousre.

---Which is exactly what companies want their situation to be! ----

NFL Sunday ticket is a good question - but they're right, it's 3 years away, too early to speculate.

We could see another price drop on the HD-DVR as they get their to-build cost around $200.
I believe from prior calls - that cost is around $300 right now.
I would hope we see $99 or $149 for mainstream come 2009 :)

They are up to around 40% + having HD or DVR, target 50% this year :)

See you again in 3 months!
 
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1) Great coverage, masterdeals!

2) What a gangbusters quarter, I actually agree with Chase Carey! :shock:
 
That's it guys. A good strong year for DirecTV, and stay the course - they're doing the right things and they know it.
 
Yeah right! If they are having such a good year why do they think they need to increase our prices?!!!
 
Yeah right! If they are having such a good year why do they think they need to increase our prices?!!!
How many new HD channels did you get again?

Besides that it is not unusualy for a channel such as ESPN normally have a price increase of $1 or more each year. Who pays for ESPNS price increase? You do!

So next time you see A Rod (or whoever) getting a $300 million dollar contract or ESPN signing a 100 million dollar deal to be the exclusive TV for Womans Curling, guess who is going to pay for this...

You are... in fact we all are.
 
How many new HD channels did you get again?

Besides that it is not unusualy for a channel such as ESPN normally have a price increase of $1 or more each year. Who pays for ESPNS price increase? You do!

So next time you see A Rod (or whoever) getting a $300 million dollar contract or ESPN signing a 100 million dollar deal to be the exclusive TV for Womans Curling, guess who is going to pay for this...

You are... in fact we all are.

I agree with this statement 100%
A-Rod overpriced? yes,
Good player? Yes
Best player ever that deserves 300mil? No.
We shall see if he is really worth 300 mil next year.
 
Here is a link to the complete transcript from seekingalpha:

DIRECTV Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

Thanks, I was waiting for that since I wanted to make sure that I heard:

"In addition to the benefit we get from annual price increases, we’re continuing to see strong growth in HD and DVR equipment and service revenues. As we saw in the third quarter, we again added over 600,000 new HD and/or DVR subscribers, bringing our total advanced service penetration to over 40% compared to just under 30% a year ago. "

It would be interesting to know how many of those were HD additions.
 
There it is again...

Profit = Greedy, evil corporations.

Along with "Gross Profit Margin".

Without it I couldn't afford to eat, keep warm AND watch 70+ HD channels etc.
 
new ownership ( he hasnt assumed control yet)

So by the same logic if AT&T purchased Dish there would be a bunch of people that would leave just because they don't like AT&T? As I said unless if goes to sh*t I don't think people would leave just because Malone now owns it, if there are it would be a very small group IMHO.
 
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