Cablevision Board To Debate Voom Fate

[hbk409]

I wonder what the VOOM subscriber numbers are right now.

Still watching HDTV under warm Seattle skies, Gill

P.S.: Does anyone have the hard numbers-not just rumors?

i posted this awhile ago think it was somewhere around page 7-8. I remember back in like the middle of dec someone stating that they were setting record sales everyday and they were over 1,000 a day. if this is/was true then i would think they would have at least close to if not more that 50,000 subs

 

[Ilya]

I remember back in like the middle of dec someone stating that they were setting record sales everyday and they were over 1,000 a day.

hbk409, I posted that VOOM was setting sales records in December, though I never said it was 1,000 per day! I don't know the actual number, but I don't believe it can be that high! Just to set the record straight...

 

[riffjim4069]

Well, I see CableVision placing continued operating conditions as part of the sale of RDBS, which in a nutshell means: Certain members of the Dolan family would pick it up on the cheap (don't think you'll hear too much complaining from shareholders) ~or~ D* or E* pays full asking price (money has a way of healing an injured ego). I don't see much hope in the latter option.

The only problem with the first option is that it will most likely require an excess of $500M, for 2005 alone, in order for VOOM (or whatever they are called) to operate and grow the business. That may be chump change for Microsoft or General Motors, but it's certainly a lot of money for individual investors other than Bill Gates.

A possible scenario IMO would be a partnership with Motorola (who make the STB/DVR/PVRs and who now own UCentric) and Lockheed Martin (who made and operate Rainbow 1 and up to 5 additional Satellites). Again, I think Dolan Sr. has many more tricks up his sleeves and has a long-term vision for RDBS. Give the guy some serious credit! All this Board of Director discontent crap is a clever way of picking-up VOOM on the cheap while CYA from any potential lawsuits. Everyone in the world is telling CableVision to sell or dispose of VOOM...so that's just what they are going to do. It's a win-win situation and I feel confident that I will be watching VOOM this time next year.

We shall see...

 

[vurbano]

hbk409, I posted that VOOM was setting sales records in December, though I never said it was 1,000 per day! I don't know the actual number, but I don't believe it can be that high! Just to set the record straight...

THIS WOULD BE USEFULL INFORMATION FOR AN INSIDER TO POST. hint hint

 

[vurbano]

Please pardon my stupidity but what is VOOM 21?

are you asking for one adjective for it? In short its the Dolan 21 channel pipe dream that sucked up bandwidth and took the place of channels that could have kept them in business. Even without them they still would have had the most HD. 16 or 17 HD channels and could have had the RSN's and all of the important SD we are missing. Instead of that we got MOOV, Divine and a fire sale.

 

[Lobstah]

are you asking for one adjective for it? In short its the Dolan 21 channel pipe dream that sucked up bandwidth and took the place of channels that could have kept them in business. Even without them they still would have had the most HD. 16 or 17 HD channels and could have had the RSN's and all of the important SD we are missing. Instead of that we got MOOV, Divine and a fire sale.

Ummm...hate to pick nits here, but they ARE still in business.

And overall, I think this will work out really well for VOOM. It's obvious that the current ownership (Cablevision) has had mixed feelings regarding VOOM for some time.
With new ownership in the form of people who are supportive of the concept, they will most likely move much faster towards advancing the functionality. They will ALL want to see VOOM move forward as quickly as is financially feasable.
In that regard, I suspect that Cablevision has been an anchor around the neck of progress...with every idea/proposal meeting with mixed results at best, at Cablevision's board meetings.

Lob

 

[Amphicar770]

EXACTLY why if Dolan is planning a buy he is crazy like a fox. Sign up as many subs as possible while it is still owned by cablevision. Then buy the whole thing, including those subs for something like 75 million or less. He is now starting a new business entity with assets bought for almost nothing and a good number of subs that the previous entity took the loss on.

Wow, had to wade back through a lot to find this again. What Ben Dover left out and may or may not have been commented on since is that with the $1 install, Voom's short term losses increase with every new subscriber. Hardware, installation, additional CSR's etc... = Subscriber Aquisition Cost. It's not cheap, and will only gets worse when new installs are multi-receiver installs and DVR if one is ever available. They won't actually start making money on a subscriber for over a year.

You all may love the service, but be realistic. Would you invest your money in Voom to keep it afloat?

 

[calikarim]

Dolan is Smart

"Economics 101 guys, this is what capitalism is all about. You build a better mousetrap and they will rush to you. No matter not capital, ideas are capital. Good ideas attract capital. Voom would maybe cost $250 million , a drop in the bucket for so many billionaires and other multi national corporations.

Guys voom is not dead, i will bet anyone that voom will survive, and shut all you nathsayers up. HD is in its infancy, the game is just beginning. Dolan founded HBO, he is beyond the mind of all of us out here, these guys are in differnet league than us."

I said this is in a post about 3 months ago about Dolan Sr being in a different mindset than us. These guys are in a different algorithm from us. We see a point in two dimensions, whereas their thinking is multidimensional , fathoming things we cannot even perceive.

Now Sr can buy voom cheap after the promotion ends, so CAblevision absorbs the losses of the promotion. Dolan Sr buys Voom, stock price of Cablevision goes up with the appreciation of the sale of Voom, Cablevision stock rises, the profit alone from Dolan Sr stock appreciation will finance the down payment of voom. The new company can depreciate the assets and take losses offsetting profits way into the future. Remember the money they need to operate , the $75 million a quarter will be borrowed , line of credit, so they can stagger payments in the future. It never comes from his personal nest egg, i know i have my own company, you borrow. Voom will eventually go black in two years, and they will stand to make hundreds of millions. That is why the dolan's are billionaires, and stupid Swann the analyst makes $50,000 a year.

 

[GadgetRick]

Hmm...

Been watching this thread and haven't posted yet so here goes...

I know we all like to see the silver lining and all that stuff but people like Dolan don't get rich by investing their own money in losing ventures. So I'd be surprised, no, SHOCKED if he invested his own hard-earned money into a venture like Voom.

So that leaves you with him finding investors. Well, unless we've all forgotten, we just came through the WORST time EVER for investors. A LOT of people lost a LOT of money over the last few years investing in, what seemed like at the time, a great idea. Unfortunately, this means nobody will be lining up to invest in a losing enterprise (remember, Voom IS losing a LOT of money afterall).

Of course this then leaves buying Voom at bargain basement prices. I'd guess this is what will happen, however, how soon is anyone's guess. Unless the rumors of Dish talking to Voom were accurate, I don't see anyone ponying up anytime soon. If I were Dish or someone else interested, I wouldn't pony up just yet. I'd wait a while and let the value drop further. Why would I spend the money now rather than waiting when I can spend a LOT less for the same thing???

Anyway, it's sad whether you're a fan of Voom or not. A lot of people will lose jobs over this (no matter what happens) and I've been on the receiving end of that type of job loss more than once for the same reasons. It's totally demoralizing to the people working there. I wouldn't want to be working there right now. Moral would have to be horrible.

It's interesting this is all happening right now. I actually decided to drop Voom because of all of the problems I've been having lately (been a sub for over a year now). Things have gotten really bad lately and I couldn't justify paying a premium for a product, which has as many problems as they have recently. On top of that, I refuse to pay a rate increase through all of this. I'm sure they would get their kinks worked out but I just couldn't pay $100 a month to beta test a product which hasn't really gotten much better in a year. Sure, more channels, blah blah blah, but they still have MANY issues which haven't been worked out.

For the record, I'm still a Voom sub because I've been waiting until I receive my other HD stb for my other service before canceling.

Also, I keep hearing everyone saying, "2005 is the year HDTV hits critical mass." Well, they've been saying this for the last 3 years. Unfortunately, Voom is proving DTV and Dish right--people, for the most part, don't really care about HDTV. Sure, it looks great and you get ooos and ahhs but, in the end, if people have to do something extra to receive it (i.e. get a different stb, pay more for a service, get a new tv, etc.) people just won't do it. The people who hang out here are NOT in ANY way a cross section of the population as a whole. We're all ahead of most people and are willing to deal with inconveniences to get something, which we perceive to be better.

And talking about inconvenince, let's see, if I sign up for Voom I've got to get a different service with less channels (I can't even get Cablevision's OWN channels!) than I had before and for my local channels I have to have an extra OTA antenna!!?? Oh, and I may have problems watching American Idol! Forget it! Remember, this is the mentality of MOST of the people out there today. I live 10 miles outside of NYC and I can't get all of my locals! And I have an idea of what I'm doing!!! Ok, I know it's not really Voom's fault but MOST PEOPLE DON'T CARE!!!

In short, they were set up for failure before they started the service. Premium services/product like Voom have a VERY limited group of people who will give it a shot. When there are problems with this PREMIUM service most people will not pay for it.

Oh, and no matter what many people around here think, MOST PEOPLE DO NOT CARE ABOUT A DVR!!! Voom's dvr would NOT be the knight in shining armor many people predict it would be. Heck, you can get a Tivo for next to nothing and they STILL have problems selling them. I know, personally, maybe 3 other people besides myself who actually have a dvr (not counting online friends). And they all see mine and all love it and all ask about what it costs, where to get it, etc. But they NEVER get it. So a dvr would be great for us but I doubt it would bump their numbers much (if any).

I've been a big Voom fan from the time I learned about them. I really hoped they could pull it off but they couldn't. In short, it's been a great ride but I think it's, more or less, over. If someone buys Voom I doubt you'll get the things Voom has been working to deliver us, you'll get less rather than more.

The Rickster

 

[vurbano]

Been watching this thread and haven't posted yet so here goes...

I know we all like to see the silver lining and all that stuff but people like Dolan don't get rich by investing their own money in losing ventures. So I'd be surprised, no, SHOCKED if he invested his own hard-earned money into a venture like Voom.

So that leaves you with him finding investors. Well, unless we've all forgotten, we just came through the WORST time EVER for investors. A LOT of people lost a LOT of money over the last few years investing in, what seemed like at the time, a great idea. Unfortunately, this means nobody will be lining up to invest in a losing enterprise (remember, Voom IS losing a LOT of money afterall).

Of course this then leaves buying Voom at bargain basement prices. I'd guess this is what will happen, however, how soon is anyone's guess. Unless the rumors of Dish talking to Voom were accurate, I don't see anyone ponying up anytime soon. If I were Dish or someone else interested, I wouldn't pony up just yet. I'd wait a while and let the value drop further. Why would I spend the money now rather than waiting when I can spend a LOT less for the same thing???

Anyway, it's sad whether you're a fan of Voom or not. A lot of people will lose jobs over this (no matter what happens) and I've been on the receiving end of that type of job loss more than once for the same reasons. It's totally demoralizing to the people working there. I wouldn't want to be working there right now. Moral would have to be horrible.

It's interesting this is all happening right now. I actually decided to drop Voom because of all of the problems I've been having lately (been a sub for over a year now). Things have gotten really bad lately and I couldn't justify paying a premium for a product, which has as many problems as they have recently. On top of that, I refuse to pay a rate increase through all of this. I'm sure they would get their kinks worked out but I just couldn't pay $100 a month to beta test a product which hasn't really gotten much better in a year. Sure, more channels, blah blah blah, but they still have MANY issues which haven't been worked out.

For the record, I'm still a Voom sub because I've been waiting until I receive my other HD stb for my other service before canceling.

Also, I keep hearing everyone saying, "2005 is the year HDTV hits critical mass." Well, they've been saying this for the last 3 years. Unfortunately, Voom is proving DTV and Dish right--people, for the most part, don't really care about HDTV. Sure, it looks great and you get ooos and ahhs but, in the end, if people have to do something extra to receive it (i.e. get a different stb, pay more for a service, get a new tv, etc.) people just won't do it. The people who hang out here are NOT in ANY way a cross section of the population as a whole. We're all ahead of most people and are willing to deal with inconveniences to get something, which we perceive to be better.

And talking about inconvenince, let's see, if I sign up for Voom I've got to get a different service with less channels (I can't even get Cablevision's OWN channels!) than I had before and for my local channels I have to have an extra OTA antenna!!?? Oh, and I may have problems watching American Idol! Forget it! Remember, this is the mentality of MOST of the people out there today. I live 10 miles outside of NYC and I can't get all of my locals! And I have an idea of what I'm doing!!! Ok, I know it's not really Voom's fault but MOST PEOPLE DON'T CARE!!!

In short, they were set up for failure before they started the service. Premium services/product like Voom have a VERY limited group of people who will give it a shot. When there are problems with this PREMIUM service most people will not pay for it.

Oh, and no matter what many people around here think, MOST PEOPLE DO NOT CARE ABOUT A DVR!!! Voom's dvr would NOT be the knight in shining armor many people predict it would be. Heck, you can get a Tivo for next to nothing and they STILL have problems selling them. I know, personally, maybe 3 other people besides myself who actually have a dvr (not counting online friends). And they all see mine and all love it and all ask about what it costs, where to get it, etc. But they NEVER get it. So a dvr would be great for us but I doubt it would bump their numbers much (if any).

I've been a big Voom fan from the time I learned about them. I really hoped they could pull it off but they couldn't. In short, it's been a great ride but I think it's, more or less, over. If someone buys Voom I doubt you'll get the things Voom has been working to deliver us, you'll get less rather than more.

The Rickster

You are so right. People tend to forget that these Cyberspace forums are not filled with typical subscribers. The average TV viewer doesnt give a rats ass about a DVR and Voom will not survive in any forum catering to a select few. The numbers are not there. They Must offer a complete and flexible program offering attracting cable defectors for lower prices. I.E. offer ALL of the SD channels and options to drop groups of the eclusive channels for a credit on your bill. Offer total flexiblity and offer it cheap. Otherwise dont even try.

 

[MarcelV]

...
And despite the internal memo, shouldn’t Cablevision be making some public comment?

As a publicly traded company, they can not make more information publicly available till a sale is finalized. This is common, because it may have great consequences on the stock trade.

 

[techweb]

Looks like the sale has already been decided.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/01/19/business/dolans.html

 

[Kentstater72]

I know we all like to see the silver lining and all that stuff but people like Dolan don't get rich by investing their own money in losing ventures.

People like Dolan don't get rich by playing it safe.

Most of the posters on this thread do not understand the entrepreneur.
It is all about the vision, and creating that vision. It is not about the money.
Sr. in an entrepreneur, his son is a manager.

If I fault Sr. for anything it is that his vision stretched too far.
Voom or some other service will succeed in delivering quality HD content via satellite, but the market timing has been delayed for many reasons and Voom has suffered from the delays.

On a personal note, I love this thread, I thought I was going to have to work at my desk all day.

 

[hbk409]

hbk409, I posted that VOOM was setting sales records in December, though I never said it was 1,000 per day! I don't know the actual number, but I don't believe it can be that high! Just to set the record straight...

I didnt say that it was you, i am just stating what i remembered someone on the board posting

 

[Sean Mota]

Sean Mota:
You are right, CVC WAS willing to spin off all those subsidiaries, but the Board forced CVC to drop the sale of all but RDBS (VOOM) back in December.
Sell all the money makers and CVC loses most of its value.
If the networks and the rest are thrown in the business will be questioned big time by Wall Street.
The Board only forced the sale or disposal of VOOM.

We can all speculate as to what constitute RDBS. It may or may not include the national nationals and everything included in the spin-off plan, that was suspended. We will know soon what it will represent. As to what it is, it is anyone guess at this moment and as to whom it is going to buy, it will be interested to see. These will interesting times to see how everything unfolds.

 

[gutter]

Most financial profiles of a new company usually do not project a profit until 5 to 7 years of operation. Only sustain losses. We are not talking about your family budget and how you run it. We are talking about a corporation that is infused with technology that takes awhile to recover and turn a profit. As someone said earlier, the board new that when they went into it.

 

[FrankJo]

Business 101

It's amazing how little you all know about business and the way it works.

There are 2 scenarios here:

1. Neither Dish nor DirectTV want Voom, in which case Dolan could buy it.

2. If either Dish or DirectTV have an interest in purchasing Voom, Dolan is out. Both of those companies will easily be able to outbid Dolan. Cablevision has a fudiciary responsibility to its shareholders to get the best deal possible. If Dish has an interest in purchasing Voom, expect DirectTV to at least enter the bidding as well, just to drive the price up. The number would end up being higher than 125 million. Dish will not break its bank to get Voom, though. If the cost were to get too high, they would bail. Dish will get in for the right price, but is not going to stretch itself.

We're talking about Voom and the channels, and nothing else. Cablevision would have no interest in selling any of its' other assets.

Dish has the most to gain. They can add more HD programming and a satellite (bandwith bandwith) to boost. I think that what Dish might be most interested in is Vooms channels. They would instantly be able to say that they offer the most HD of any satellite service. Most of Vooms channels don't cost gobs of money to run. The would mean that Dish would have it's own version of HDnet or INHD, with way more content. (Remember, Dish does sell HD television packages. They do have some level of commitment to HD. What better way than to entice consumers with "the most HD anywhere".) Once Mpeg4 takes hold, cable systems, with the added bandwith, could offer those channels as part of a greatly expanded HD line-up. They could better position themselves against DirectTV. What is most important here is that Dish would need to offer those VOOM channels to BOTH SD and HD subscribers (for Dish subscribers). There is good content there, that should not be limited to it's HD pack subscribers. (they could obviously eliminate some of the 21 channels to cut costs as well. 10-15 channels would be a good number.)

 

[joemama]

Also, I keep hearing everyone saying, "2005 is the year HDTV hits critical mass." Well, they've been saying this for the last 3 years. Unfortunately, Voom is proving DTV and Dish right--people, for the most part, don't really care about HDTV. Sure, it looks great and you get ooos and ahhs but, in the end, if people have to do something extra to receive it (i.e. get a different stb, pay more for a service, get a new tv, etc.) people just won't do it. The people who hang out here are NOT in ANY way a cross section of the population as a whole. We're all ahead of most people and are willing to deal with inconveniences to get something, which we perceive to be better.

The Rickster

Great points. The majority of the country still watches TV on their 27" or smaller set from a modulated 3-4 output. I asked one person why they were using the coax instead of RCA's or S-Video and they said - "It's the thickest cable, its gotta be the best."

 

[Threv]

Small silver lining with all this Doom Voom talk, rumors are that Jobs is getting into the home media/HDTV business (Mac TV?), maybe together with Sony....

Please No Not Jobs.....I''ll Take M$ over Jobs. Then the DVR will only work with your MAC/ Ipod

 

[riffjim4069]

It's amazing how little you all know about business and the way it works.

Your post may have contained several relevant and insightful points, but I certainly didn't read them. I feel most members dismissed your statements after reading your opening sentence. It's amazing how little some people know about tact and dealing with others.