Two sources. One is a teardown of the HR22-100 from last year that gave the build cost at $188. I could give you a link but its a subscription product and you have to purchase it, and I'm not allowed to disclose the content detail.
Here's the link:
Teardown Analysis - DirecTV Plus HR22-100 HD DVR Set-Top Box - iSuppli
Other source is to break it down ourselves. The broadcom hd dvr chipset which includes just about everything is around $32 in ~10k unit quantity. The WD disk drive in most of these retails for ~$45. The PCB and supporting piece parts with soldering and assembly are going to run around $30-35. The power supply is around $25-30 in quantity one. Sheet metal and box assembly around $30 in larger quantities. Couple of bucks for some cables and the cardboard box it all goes in.
That puts us around $160-180ish without a remote, and I'm sure directv's suppliers get better quantity discounts than 10k unit or single unit pricing. Plus they have a handful of box builders to keep the box pricing competition going.
I'm sure the HR20-100's back 3+ years ago cost a lot more to make. There were a lot more components on the board, the memory it used was expensive then, the disk drive cost a lot more, there were two outboard plug in satellite tuners, it had OTA tuners that cost a good bit, and it required a much more powerful power supply due to the larger content and chips made with a larger nm process.
A corollary to this is the tivo HD. Except for the satellite tuners which are largely integrated in the newer broadcom chip sets without a big hike in the price, the content in the tivo HD is very similar to several of the HR series dvr's. You can buy brand new tivo HD's for under $200 and refurbs for $99. Since tivo may only be making ~$7 a month for these boxes if added to an existing tivo subscription, there obviously isnt a whole lot of service cost subsidizing involved. They're not getting $75-100+ a month in service fees.
That these guys are dropping the product should make a big statement to directv management. Here you have a retailer who can sell computers, cell phones, tivo's, and all other manner of consumer electronics products loaded with contracts, support issues, and enormous complexity and be successful at it and make a profit.
But they cant successfully sell a set top box for a tv and they're either so unsuccessful at it or unprofitable in selling them that they're getting out of the business.
Bestbuy is one thing, but Costco customers tend to be more affluent and intelligent than the average joe, according to their demographics and their employees tend to be a lot further up the retail food chain than most companies.
Directv has to make their sales and pricing models simpler and learn that sometimes its better to make the carrot longer than to continue adding larger sticks.
Is BB and Costco dropping selling the recvrs, or is D* pulling them out of the stores to have complete control ?
Dish did the same thing awhile back.