This is an interesting MLB.com piece about Labor Day (historically a very important checkpoint) and the pennant races:
Labor Day serves as an informal cutoff date for various things. Time to put away the summer whites. Time for vacations to end and school to begin. Time for playoff pretenders to fade and leave center stage for the contenders.
It also means time is running out on the season, as historically, teams that are in front at the end of the first Monday in September go on to reach the playoffs more than 70 percent of the time.
That kind of success rate would put somebody in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for the frontrunner, it's no guarantee, as the Colorado Rockies and New York Mets reminded the baseball world last season.
The Rockies, in fourth place and five games out on Labor Day, rode a 14-1 winning streak that began on Sept. 16 to win the Wild Card berth. The Mets went the opposite direction. New York, leading Philadelphia by five in the National League East on Labor Day, blew a 7 1/2 game lead in the final two weeks as the Phillies took the division crown.
The Mets are in first place again this year, leading the Phillies, but by a smaller margin than last season. The Rockies are under .500 but like last year, within single digits of the NL West lead.
If any team has a chance to buck the Labor Day odds in 2008, it might be an encore from the Rockies.
In the bunched up NL West, where only Arizona has a winning record, the Rockies have been giving indications they might be ready to pull off another September surprise. Their winning percentage since the All-Star break (25-15, .625 entering Saturday night's game) was the third best in the National League, trailing only the Cubs and Brewers. The Rockies have won 11 of their last 15 games and four consecutive series.
They are as healthy as they've been all season, and Colorado's September schedule includes 15 home games and just nine road games. Of Colorado's three remaining road series (San Francisco, Atlanta and Arizona), the Diamondbacks are the only opponent the Rockies will face that has a winning record.
The odds, however, are still against Colorado.
Leading on Labor Day is where teams want to be, and this year that's the Rays (AL East), White Sox (AL Central), Angels (AL West), Red Sox (AL Wild Card), Mets (NL East), Cubs (NL Central), Diamondbacks (NL West) and Brewers (NL Wild Card).
Since baseball expanded the playoffs in 1995, 86 of 112 leaders (in a division or Wild Card standings) went on to reach the playoffs. That's a 76.7 percent success rate for the teams on top when the fireworks subsided on Labor Day. Conversely, only 17.9 percent of the leaders, or 20 teams, missed the playoffs after leading on Labor Day.
Sixty-six of the 79 Labor Day division leaders (counting ties) during the last 13 years were eventually crowned division champions. Of the 13 that did not win a division race, four went on to capture a Wild Card berth and nine (11.3 percent) missed the playoffs altogether. Two of those came last year, when the Mets led the NL East and the Padres held a one-game lead over Arizona in the NL West on Labor Day.
Leading the Wild Card standings on Labor Day has more often than not meant a playoff berth, but it's not as lopsided as the numbers for division leaders.
The good news for the Wild Card-leading Red Sox and Brewers is that of the 29 Labor Day Wild Card leaders during the past 13 seasons, nine were not leading when the season ended, and yet three of those made the playoffs as division champions. Six of the 29, or 21 percent, missed the playoffs.
On the other hand, it isn't hopeless for those hopefuls not in first place on Labor Day.
In 11 of the past 13 seasons, at least one team not leading a division or the Wild Card on Labor Day has wound up making the playoffs. The only years it didn't happen were 1999 and 2006.
In 1999, Labor Day fell on Sept. 6, with the Yankees, Indians, Rangers, Braves, Astros and Diamondbacks as division leaders and the Red Sox and Mets in first in the Wild Card standings. The Mets were up by four games on Cincinnati, but the two teams were tied at the end of the regular season, forcing a one-game playoff, which the Mets won, 5-0, to capture the Wild Card.
In 2006, the Labor Day leaders were the Yankees, Tigers, Athletics, Twins, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers and Padres. All made the playoffs.
The success rate of division leaders on Labor Day bodes well for the Rays and Cubs, who have the best record in the AL and NL, respectively.
The Rays, who lost 96 games last year, have a shot at a historic turnaround. They are on pace for 100 wins, which would be a 34-game improvement from last season. Only two teams in baseball history have had a greater improvement from one season to the next: The '99 Diamondbacks (+35.0) and the 1903 New York Giants (+34.5).
The Brewers and Red Sox aren't home free. The Wild Card races in recent years have often gone down to the wire, and as such, being on top in that race on Labor Day is certainly no guarantee of a ticket to the October dance.
Besides last year, when Colorado's rise jumbled the NL Wild Card race on the final weekend of the season, there have been other wild Wild Card scrambles:
• The Phillies led the Astros and Marlins by 2 1/2 games in the NL Wild Card standings on Labor Day, 2005. The Astros won the Wild Card.
• In 2004, the Cubs led San Francisco by a half game and Houston by 1 1/2 games in the NL Wild Card. The Astros wound up winning it.
• In 2003, Seattle led Boston by one game in the AL Wild Card on Labor Day, but Boston won the race.
• In 2002, the Dodgers enjoyed a 2 1/2-game lead on the Giants in the NL Wild Card on Labor Day, but the Giants went on to win the Wild Card and reach the World Series.
• In 2001, St. Louis overcame a three-game deficit in the Wild Card race (the Cubs led on Labor Day with the Giants in second place) to win the playoff spot.
• In 2000, the Indians led the AL Wild Card standings on Labor Day, only to be caught and passed by the Mariners.
That wasn't the first time the Mariners had come from behind after trailing on Labor Day to reach the playoffs. Seattle trailed the Angels by 6 1/2 games on Labor Day in 1995 before going on a 17-7 run to tie the Angels and force a one-game playoff. The Mariners and Randy Johnson won, 9-1, to give Seattle the AL West title. No team has overcome a bigger Labor Day deficit to win a division crown during the past 11 years.
When the Cardinals came back from third place and three games back to win the Wild Card in 2001, it was the largest Labor Day deficit any team has overcome en route to the Wild Card until the Rockies topped it with their historic run last season.
Fans of the Rays, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Brewers should take note of the Labor Day standings for another reason. For the last 30 years, every World Series-winning team either led a division or the Wild Card on Labor Day. Not since the 1978 New York Yankees has a team won the World Series without leading a race on Labor Day.