"If you visit the HDM part of AVS forum (the one that covers both formats), three quarters of the posts on there are in favor of HD-DVD."
That's because AVS, or AVM$ as it's known to some, has routinely deleted many of the Blu-ray positive posts. That has the effect of actively discouraging Blu-ray supporters from visiting. Perhaps recently they have eased off on that policy. Of course, HD DVD types may spring to their defense, saying they're "neutral." Let's just say there's a difference of opinion on that.
Doesn't matter. Most people that buy discs, even HD discs, don't frequent forums on the matter. They're most likely to see movies they want, and studios like Disney. The Disney name is quite powerful. Then they decide which to buy, if any. Most still decide to wait for a single format and lower prices. Q4 seems to be seeing sales pick up. I eagerly await figures published in January.