Will Transformers Bust!!

[JoeSp]

Now that I have your attention the real question here is:

Will the release of Transformers on HD-DVD finally give HD-DVD a week won as the top seller by moving HD-DVD over BluRay in sales for the week?

BluRay has nothing on the radar that week. If Transformers releasing in a week that BD has nothing releasing does not give HD-DVD at least the discs sales lead for the week -- then it is never going to happen.

 

[vurbano]

Now that I have your attention the real question here is:

Will the release of Transformers on HD-DVD finally give HD-DVD a week won as the top seller by moving HD-DVD over BluRay in sales for the week?

BluRay has nothing on the radar that week. If Transformers releasing in a week that BD has nothing releasing does not give HD-DVD at least the discs sales lead for the week -- then it is never going to happen.

Pre orders will not even be counted for that week. For that reason I do not pay any attention to the numbers since most of my purchases are orders.

 

[SatinKzo]

Yeah, I think everyone I know has pre-ordered Transformers. Totals about 20 in my work and social circles.

 

[vurbano]

Yeah, I think everyone I know has pre-ordered Transformers. Totals about 20 in my work and social circles.

Me too. And I ordered from Amazon within hours of it starting and it say OCT 24 delivery. I will probably cancel and buy at walmart if I can find it.

 

[SatinKzo]

Yeah, I saw that too with Amazon. no big deal for me, I'll wait for it as I have a couple other HD-DVD movies I got on a promo with Amazon all shipping when transformers ships

 

[CochiseGuy]

Now that I have your attention the real question here is:

Will the release of Transformers on HD-DVD finally give HD-DVD a week won as the top seller by moving HD-DVD over BluRay in sales for the week?

BluRay has nothing on the radar that week. If Transformers releasing in a week that BD has nothing releasing does not give HD-DVD at least the discs sales lead for the week -- then it is never going to happen.

Yes. I expect at least 80k copies sold the first week, and if HD DVD doesn't win the week with at least a 60% sales ratio I'll be surprised. But, I don't place the importance of HD DVD wining the disc sales that you do. It's Blu-ray that has always been about destroying the competition being the only choice for consumers - for obvious reasons. BD was always designed to be the only choice, so the BDA can roll things out like interactivity and lower prices when they damn well feel like it.

Yeah, I saw that too with Amazon. no big deal for me, I'll wait for it as I have a couple other HD-DVD movies I got on a promo with Amazon all shipping when transformers ships

I almost always go for free shipping from Amazon, for me they ship from "next door" in California. I had Top Gun & Galapagos pre-ordered and they arrived the Friday after release date w/ Free Shipping.But for Transformers I wanted to make sure, so I have it in a separate order by itself and sprang for the $2.98 standard shipping, and my order says shipping Oct. 16 w/ deliver Oct. 18. For really big releases, like "300", the Free Shipping orders get shipped last and can delay shipping a day or two. If you're going to try to pick up at Walmart, go early! My Walmart got in a whopping 10 copies of "300" HD DVD, and sold out in the first hour.


EDIT: Hmm, in checking the Sunday store fliers this morning, both Best Buy & Circuit City are advertising the HD DVD for $29.99; Wal-Mart has it for $27.87 - better than Amazon's $27.95 (before Tax)! But, a word of warning, depending on your level of Fanboism (altho I do see Joe in the BD section urging BD owner to buy any BD disc this week to "counteract" the effect of Transformers) - Wal-Mart sales are not reported to Nielson / Videoscan; CC & BB and Amazon sales are.

 

[tnsprin]

Now that I have your attention the real question here is:

Will the release of Transformers on HD-DVD finally give HD-DVD a week won as the top seller by moving HD-DVD over BluRay in sales for the week?

BluRay has nothing on the radar that week. If Transformers releasing in a week that BD has nothing releasing does not give HD-DVD at least the discs sales lead for the week -- then it is never going to happen.

Their are several Blu-ray coming up the same week, and clearly some big ones coming up the week after.

 

[navychop]

From postings I've read it's my understanding that:
1. Preorders do not count when the preorder is placed.
2. Preorders "count" when actually shipped, even if shipped later than originally expected.

Is there general agreement on the above? And when do they count it if you order it, and they've run out, and ship at a later date?

I've read estimates/guesses that Transformers may sell around 100,000 copies the first week. One wag guessed 250,000 (hope he didn't place a bet on that one). Some suggest 50,000 because many will buy on DVD rather than HD DVD. Hardly matters. We'll have the figures in less than two weeks. But I do believe it will be the high point for sales for the year for HD DVD, followed by when Shrek 3 is released.

I believe the following are to be released next week on Blu-ray, up against Transformers:
Hollow Man, The Invisible, Masters of Horror Season One
And on both formats: The Reaping, Return to House on Haunted Hill
Transformers should easily dominate that field. Too bad Blu-ray didn't get out "2001" "Full Metal Jacket" and "Clockwork Orange" the same week as Transformers. They follow the next week.

 

[CochiseGuy]

From postings I've read it's my understanding that:
1. Preorders do not count when the preorder is placed.
2. Preorders "count" when actually shipped, even if shipped later than originally expected.

Is there general agreement on the above? And when do they count it if you order it, and they've run out, and ship at a later date?

Agreed. You can read a little bit more about how Nielson Videoscan tabulates sales at Nielsen VideoScan/about

They tabulate sales from Point-of-Sale scans - the scanners at the checkout registers. For online retailers, it's when the item is actually shipped. For rankings sites like eProductwars.com, the pre-orders are counted, but for Videoscan it's not considered a "sale" until shipped. Also, Wal-Mart does not report sales to Videoscan, by their own decision - they apparently don't like to report sales to anyone, except (hopefully ) tax authorities.

I've read estimates/guesses that Transformers may sell around 100,000 copies the first week. One wag guessed 250,000 (hope he didn't place a bet on that one). Some suggest 50,000 because many will buy on DVD rather than HD DVD. Hardly matters. We'll have the figures in less than two weeks. But I do believe it will be the high point for sales for the year for HD DVD, followed by when Shrek 3 is released.

Yes, hopefully that 250k predictor didn't lay money on that. "300" sold around 87k the first week. Add in more players sold since then and no BD version for neutral owners (even I bought 300 on BD to avoid the higher priced Warner combo), and my guess is 100k to 120k - as long as there's no product shortages. Amazon is preparing my pre-order for shipment this morning, so no shortages there, but if Wal-Mart sticks to their usual ordering of 10 copies, who knows?

I believe the following are to be released next week on Blu-ray, up against Transformers:
Hollow Man, The Invisible, Masters of Horror Season One
And on both formats: The Reaping, Return to House on Haunted Hill
Transformers should easily dominate that field. Too bad Blu-ray didn't get out "2001" "Full Metal Jacket" and "Clockwork Orange" the same week as Transformers. They follow the next week.

Well, those Kubrick titles are from Warner, so available on both formats, and their sales tend to re-enforce the current 2 to 1 YTD ratio. I'd forgotten about "The Invisible" - the previews on a Disny BD looked pretty good back when I had a BD player - I'll throw the DVD in my Netflix Q.

 

[hpman247]

When I got my copy last night at Wal Mart they had about 8 copies. Tonight I went back and they were all gone. I guess it's all these college boys with their 360 HD-DVD players who think they are some sh*t. All I have to do is invite them to my place and they will see what a real HD enthusiast is.

 

[vurbano]

All I have to do is invite them to my place and they will see what a real HD enthusiast is.

Let me get this straight. Your idea of a "real" HD enthusiast is one who does NOT buy a dedicated BD player or HD DVD player? It is one that plays movies on a game system? LMFAO :haha

 

[hpman247]

Let me get this straight. Your idea of a "real" HD enthusiast is one who does NOT buy a dedicated BD player or HD DVD player? It is one that plays movies on a game system? LMFAO :haha

Um in case you didnt know. I do own an HD-A2 as well as a 360 HD-DVD drive (which i will soon be selling).

And the PS3 is one of the best BD players on the market hands down. I will be buying a Sony this christmas, but I am extremely happy with my PS3. At least i havn't had to go out and buy a standalone BD player like i did for HD-DVD because the console is so loud i can hear it over any movie i play.

 

[roachxp]

With the CC BOGO on the HDM alot of people picked up 2 cpoies of Tranformers, 1 for them and 1 for ebay.

 

[navychop]

Hard to picture great success in selling it on eBay. Plenty in the stores- and wouldn't the folks familiar with buying on eBay likely be familiar with the Amazon BOGO, as well as B&M sales?

 

[meStevo]

Hard to picture great success in selling it on eBay. Plenty in the stores- and wouldn't the folks familiar with buying on eBay likely be familiar with the Amazon BOGO, as well as B&M sales?

It'd be worthwhile selling it there in a month, but not right now. Buying for resale can be worthwhile but just have to know when to resell it. I don't do it myself, and would love to see that market die a horrible death. Kinda like the whole controversy over the Hanna Montana concert tickets... and the PS3 launch where it seemed like more were being bought for Ebay than they were for home use... the same for the weekly Wii releases for a while.

 

[BobMurdoch]

That's an important point about sales in the first week.... I can't tell you how many times I went to Best Buy on launch week and my HD DVD of choice was sold out... They need to beef up their initial orders to better meet demand....

 

[Weezknight]

At least i havn't had to go out and buy a standalone BD player like i did for HD-DVD because the console is so loud i can hear it over any movie i play.

For an "enthusiast" it sounds like you need a better sound system with your HD equipment.

 

[vurbano]

Um in case you didnt know. I do own an HD-A2 as well as a 360 HD-DVD drive (which i will soon be selling).

And the PS3 is one of the best BD players on the market hands down. I will be buying a Sony this christmas, but I am extremely happy with my PS3. At least i havn't had to go out and buy a standalone BD player like i did for HD-DVD because the console is so loud i can hear it over any movie i play.

Funny, some PS3 owners at AVS say the PS3 is so loud they have mounted them under the floor or in a closet. You sure thats not the reason you are buying the standalone? Doesnt make any sense if your claims of PS3 superiority are true. PS I jumped your a@@ a few days ago for buying transformers on HD DVD so you do know that I know you own an HD DVD player. Its even in your sig junior.