Why Blu-ray will be the next DVD

Any consumer that goes into a home electronics purchase nowadays is pretty aware that whatever he or she purchases will be lacking features that devices that come out in 6 mos. to 1 yr. from now will have, and at a cheaper price. We've all seen that happen with MP3 players, TVs, computers, etc. You pay more now to "future proof" for tomorrow. At the rate things go, in two years, 2.0 BD players will be priced around $200.
 
Are you guys under the impression that Blu-ray should be the same price as DVD? I hope not. I would like them to be cheaper but I understand paying a premium for the better features and quality of BD.

If you want the DVD volumes, it needs to be the same price.

DVD had unquestionable quality improvements over VHS, not to mention reliability and the rewind issue. Yet, it didn't take over until prices came down to match VHS for both players and media.
 
The fundamental issue I have with the silliness of this argument that Blu-Ray (or HD DVD had things been different) will be the next DVD is that you don't need a HDTV to see the advantages of DVD. A cheap 19" CRT TV showed the advantages of DVD over VHS (which was always visual crap). People adopted DVD over VHS not because it looked better but because it offered better durability (one check for Blu-Ray), a smaller form factor (nope), no rewinding, easy quick skip access and to a much lesser degree interactivity and special features.

Blu-Ray and HD DVD don't really show advantages over GOOD upconversion until you hit 42" or larger at normal viewing distances. The sound upgrade is nice, but let's cut the crap. Better sound doesn't sell products in the mp3 era.
 
The fundamental issue I have with the silliness of this argument that Blu-Ray (or HD DVD had things been different) will be the next DVD is that you don't need a HDTV to see the advantages of DVD. A cheap 19" CRT TV showed the advantages of DVD over VHS (which was always visual crap). People adopted DVD over VHS not because it looked better but because it offered better durability (one check for Blu-Ray), a smaller form factor (nope), no rewinding, easy quick skip access and to a much lesser degree interactivity and special features.

Blu-Ray and HD DVD don't really show advantages over GOOD upconversion until you hit 42" or larger at normal viewing distances. The sound upgrade is nice, but let's cut the crap. Better sound doesn't sell products in the mp3 era.

I agree.

But I'd add that people are replacing their TVs more frequently now, with HD becoming available. New, larger, widescreen TVs will enter more and more homes. The advertising of the digital conversion will help this, as will the fact that almost all TVs in the stores are widescreen now. And this will lead to greater demand for HD sources. Blu-ray will move into homes, just not at the speed DVD did. Eventually, I expect Blu-ray to outsell DVD.

I remember reading a couple years ago that the expected "sweet spot" for home TVs was expected to move from 27" to 42".

And perhaps most of all, we should expect the BDA and studios to come up with incentives for us to move to Blu-ray. It won't just be HD - it'll have content and feature improvements. I'm sure they've hired some smart people to lay out a game plan to encourage widespread Blu-ray adoption.

Prices will come down, but I sure wouldn't expect it soon. Maybe by the 4th of July sales- but more likely around Turkey Day. And fewer BOGO or other media sales. That's why I bought over 60 BDs- and I'm not much of a movie watcher. Almost every one I have was bought around half price. That should tide me over until media prices start to decline. Only I'll have to pay full price for Starship Troopers and a few others! :p
 
Eventually, I expect Blu-ray to outsell DVD.
Its to many HD alternatives that will be hitting their strides by the time BD prices get down to HD DVD or upconvert levels. Thus slowing the adoption rate, possibly to a crawl. There are many more obstacles for BD to overcome then DVD. Oh and one of the obstacles to overcome is DVD.
 
Its to many HD alternatives that will be hitting their strides by the time BD prices get down to HD DVD or upconvert levels. Thus slowing the adoption rate, possibly to a crawl. There are many more obstacles for BD to overcome then DVD. Oh and one of the obstacles to overcome is DVD.

DVD is not an obstacle it is the catalyst. Maybe one the problems is that you are putting all your eggs in one basket. The reason I say that is that you assume that BD cannot overtake DVD. You assume that everyone buying a HDTV is going to want a DVD player over a BD player. You assume that folks would prefer to download a weaker HD product from the internet for play on their HDTV. You assume that J6P will buy a HT media center and hook it up to their HDTV and pay for the privalge of viewing their favorite movie in HD over and over and over.

Those are alot of assumptions. But here is a fact that you and others are not addressing. There is a reason that VHS and DVD has done so well in the market. That reason is ownership. There is currently no business model being shown for HDM downloadable content where the consumer gets to own a copy. Not one busness model from anyone. Until that happens, and I don't see M$ or the studios stepping up here, there will always be a format for the consumer to purchase their favorite movies so that they might own them. And while I entered the HD market in 2000 when there was not much to view (and I paid a ton for that first Sony HD RPTV) the market today is still considered to be in its infancy. Just as VHS had its time and DVD had is time so will HDM on BD have its time. And yes, somewhere down the road in the next 10 years another medium will come around where the consumer can purchase their favorite movie and own it and it will eventually replace BD. Such is the nature of technology and recordable media.

BD is poised to grow with HDTV -- and the only way BD does not succeed and surpass DVD is if you think that folks are going to prefer SD tvs to HD tvs. In case you haven't looked at the lastest sales figures, SD tvs are on their way out. And while it might take a few years, so is DVD. BD is poised for the future and its growth will be tied to the growth of HDTV over the next 10 years. After another 5 to 7 years we will be talking about a newer technology to buy our favorite movies on and to own and I am willing to bet a case of Dr. Pepper that it will still be on a physical media you can own for yourself.
 
I don't plug my satellite receiver into a network. True..this is possible, but I don't and most do not and most will not anytime soon.

I am not to sure about most not doing it anytime soon. I have been approached by many people at work asking about Directv on demand service. I have helped many that do not embrace technology very well get setup just for this service.
 
After another 5 to 7 years we will be talking about a newer technology to buy our favorite movies on and to own and I am willing to bet a case of Dr. Pepper that it will still be on a physical media you can own for yourself.

I'd put my soda money on some kind of flash or smart card type media (very small and portable...once the technology allows).

For the time being however the studios and CEs are obviously continuing to put their money into the 5" disc basket... and with the amount of investment involved, they aren't about to abandon it, or stop marketing the heck out of it, any time soon.
 
http://www.scientificatlanta.com/newscenter/g1551a.pdf
I can easily see a product/service that delivers HD content and allows users to “own a copy”.

This is a DVD/DVR player. Where in the add does it meantion HD? It says high definition picture but that just means that it is also an upconverting player. No, this does not fit the user owns the HDM copy because it is not a HDM product. Next!
 
Where in the add does it meantion HD?
Page 2. Top right.

That being said, this is not a product I'd want. It does claim it does HD, however, you're not going to squeeze much HD onto a standard DVD, which is what it claims to use. I guess it might be of use if you limit your HD recordings to 5 minutes each.

My guess it that they are playing fast and loose with the term "HD". Or maybe they're trying to sneakily say they can receive and display HD, but not record it. Or receive HD, transcode it to a lower resolution, and then record it. You never really know with ads like this.

I think it would be easier and cheaper to just buy a BluRay player and the movie on BR disc. Assuming what you wanted was available on a BR disc.
 
This is a DVD/DVR player. Where in the add does it meantion HD? It says high definition picture but that just means that it is also an upconverting player. No, this does not fit the user owns the HDM copy because it is not a HDM product. Next!
Read JoeSP nice and slow.

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If its DOCSIS 3.0 then that up to 100MB download speed.

My intent was to show that ownership is possible. This link I provided may not be it, it was just giving you a idea on how HD could be delivered and then how ownership would occur. Very simple process. When I saw this product released at CES I had the idea, and I'm sure some company will put all the pieces togather, maybe not this go around but soon.
 
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There is currently no business model being shown for HDM downloadable content where the consumer gets to own a copy. Not one busness model from anyone.

While I don't think download services will overtake physical DVD/HDM sales or rentals anytime soon, your statement is not true. Vudu, for one, offers ownership rights on purchases. In fact their box comes with the first two Bourne movies in HD and you can purchase BU for 24.99. I've had Over the Hedge on my media server for over a year through another service. Purchased it for 14.99 to use as a demo.

When XstreamHD comes online this year, they are going to offer ownership rights also.

S~
 
My intent was to show that ownership is possible. This link I provided may not be it, it was just giving you a idea on how HD could be delivered and then how ownership would occur. Very simple process. When I saw this product released at CES I had the idea, and I'm sure some company will put all the pieces togather, maybe not this go around but soon.

Many of us are already capable of storing/archiving HD content on an external HDD attachd to our cable/sat box. A device such as this offered by cable cos., which records in full HD on a 5" disc, will not happen before set-top BD recorders reach the mainstream... and we all know the biggest stumbling-block to that ever happening. :rolleyes:
 
Some proposed new features to DVD may make BD's job even harder.

OPINION: DVD revival - 3/7/2008 12:20:00 PM - ContentAgenda.com - CA6539511

OPINION: DVD revival

By Paul Sweeting
March 7, 2008

In the aftermath of Blu-ray’s victory over HD DVD in the high-def format war, many commentators predicted Blu-ray’s reign would be short lived, soon to be done in by digital downloads. But as Sony officials know, Blu-ray supporters’ biggest immediate challenge is to get consumers to make the leap from standard DVD to high-def.

“The battle really begins now to move people away from DVD to Blu-ray,” Sony Electronics president Stanley Glasgow told reporters at his semi-annual roundtable last week, according to VB sister publication TWICE. “We have a lot of work to do now, so we are not gloating. Upscale DVD players have gotten better and better. We need to explain the additional feature sets, PIP, BD Live and other features.”

It may not only be upscaling DVD players that Blu-ray finds itself up against, however. Barely missing a beat after abandoning HD DVD, Toshiba and Microsoft, two of that format’s principal backers, have turned their attention to an attempt to overhaul the standard DVD format by adding a host of new features and functionalities.

At the most recent DVD Forum meeting last month, Toshiba got itself reelected as chair of the Steering Committee for another two years, leaving it well-positioned to guide future developments in the format.

At the same meeting, according to a summary posted on the Forum Web site, the committee approved the formation of a new working group (dubbed WG-12) “to study and specify network applications and related network specification of DVD Forum formats, make recommendations for better interoperability and functionality of network-connected DVD Forum specified devices and content and communicate on relevant recommendations with other standard creation organizations.”

What that means in non-Forum legalese, I’m told by sources familiar with the plans, is that the new working group will look for ways to incorporate some of the same next-gen functionality developed for HD DVD into a DVD 2.0 format, including the HDi interactive layer and the advanced network connectivity.

One of the co-chairs of WG-12 is Microsoft, which played a major role in developing those capabilities for HD DVD (the other co-chair is Panasonic).

Toshiba and Microsoft are also working through the DVD Copy Control Assn., which oversees the CSS encryption format used on standard DVDs, to try to breathe new life into the old format.

Microsoft was behind a proposal to DVD-CCA—originally floated two years ago but revived in modified form late last year—to introduce “managed-copy” to standard DVDs, under which consumers would be able to copy their DVDs to a hard drive under carefully DRM’ed conditions, for streaming over a home network.

Since then, Microsoft has largely abandoned the effort, after meeting multiple objections from the studios.

The studios have since introduced their own proposal for managed-copy, but it met a cool reception from other members of DVD-CCA, in particular the computer and software companies, who felt the studios’ more limited proposal would not attract enough consumer interest to make it worth implementing.

There the matter sat until last week, when Toshiba unexpectedly raised the issue on a conference call, according to several knowledgeable sources, signaling an apparent new interest on the part of the CE company in managed-copy.

Whether Toshiba will have any better luck getting the studios to go along with a more comprehensive managed-copy proposal than Microsoft had, my sources have their doubts.

But clearly, Toshiba is doing everything it can to try to keep the DVD format relevant, now that it no longer has a horse in the high-def sweepstakes.

Whether anyone would actually build a machine that includes all the new functionality under discussion, even Toshiba, depends entirely on whether enough studios signal a willingness to release DVDs that take advantage of the new capabilities.

And that will likely depend on how quickly Blu-ray takes off.
 
...Whether anyone would actually build a machine that includes all the new functionality under discussion, even Toshiba, depends entirely on whether enough studios signal a willingness to release DVDs that take advantage of the new capabilities.
CE companies have experience adding new capabilities to DVD players by adding chips capable of not only decoding DVD specs (MPEG2/DD) but also MPEG-4/SP (DivX, XviD), MP3, etc.
Just make the next logical step: replace these chips with ones capable of decoding high definition resolutions (720p/1080p) in MPEG2/AVC/VC1 and allow the files to be taken from the network.

Get rid of the blue laser drive and don't decode any encrypted streams. How to prepare files that will be DRM-free (and playable on these players) we will take care ourselves.:)

Two such players could be marketted: with a regular DVD drive, aka "DVD Player" and drive-less device "Extender". HTPCs would lose half its advantages...

Diogen.
 

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