What's happening with the Sat Launch?

[drdroo]

But why would you still want to lease a satellite thats no operational.

It's unknown as to if it's operational or not. At the very least it could be leasing a car that doesn't come with a full tank of gas on delivery and comes with a couple hundred thousand miles on it. At most, it's totaled and comes in on a flatbed.

If it's totaled on a flatbed, hope their insurance covers it. I'm sure the insurance company is one of the players in phone calls at the moment for that reason.

Shouldn't E* be scrambling to get their own Satellite in place instead.

And if they could call Doc Brown and go back 4 years, I'm sure they could get their own sat built. The reality is 4 years (in the case of AMC-14). The question is whether there is anything that they can do that will make something happen this year. Even if they had a sat sitting on the ground ready to go, finding a launch slot to send it up is going to be a pain. They could use one of their other 2 slots this year maybe, but they're still missing a sat to put up there that can operate at 61.5 AND do what they want there.

They're going to have to figure out if there's any solution that is going to result in them having a working satellite for at least the next few years. If this isn't likely in the current situation in any possible way, then they will have to come up with another plan.

That would be like leasing a car,and they deal was for the dealer to deliver the car to your home, But instead crashed it on his way over! What would you do? That car wouldn't even be another thought in my head. IF the Satellite he doesn't own is done for then, F IT. Time for plan B.

Not exactly. Your concept assumes the satellite is damaged. None of us know if it is damaged or not. If they manage to force it into its proper orbit successfully (one way or another), at the very least it's going to come with less than a full tank of gas and a couple hundred thousand miles. Sure, the other (quite possible) reality is that the satellite is damaged (already or in transit) in an irreparable way. Nothing's been said to suggest either way.

I don't envy the situation for the players involved at all. Either way they're in a situation that is more than they bargained for.

The question [ultimately] boils out to which is the least smelly turd sandwich. Those kinds of situations I don't envy in the least when I work with my internals team.

 

[navychop]

I have issues with your mathematics. We know that ILS has launched 45 Protons times and had 5 failures. Are you saying that the other 280 proton launches have had no more than 2 failures? That's what it takes to maintain a 98% success rate.

If they fail at 5% aggregate (which is unheard of) they would have ~11 failures in the other 280 launches of the proton platform.

Convince me that they were running at > 99% (278/280) successes on proton launches outside of ILS.

Not "my" math. It's from the articles linked. Take up your issue with them. And I don't know at what point they calculated 98%, but suspect since they published the figure, it was accurate at the time.

Point is, and remains, the Russian Proton is one of the most heavily used and most reliable unmanned launchers ever made. Most problems, at least lately, involve the upper stage - particularly, the new Breeze-M.

People like to belittle Russian technology out of misguided patriotism. Note that most launches are Russian. Note that Sea Launch uses Russian launchers. Note that one of the two "latest and greatest" U.S. satellite launchers uses rocket engines based on Russian designs - and mostly manufactured in Russia!

Russian space technology is first rate. ALL space faring nations have failures. Two shuttles are toast. I'm sure there are plenty of Russians saying, with some justification, that U.S. space technology is "junk."

And BTW, launches are made from Kazakhstan, referred to as a "third world nation" in these threads, because it was at one time part of the Soviet Union. And is closer to the equator than most of Russia/the USSR, making it a good location to launch from. Less fuel is needed to reach orbit from places close to the equator. Read up a little on orbital mechanics. Florida was picked for good reason, not just political maneuvering.

 

[navychop]

Madtown:

Kiss your ViP DVR goodbye!

 

[Andrewwski]

Uh, the countries that made up the Soviet Union were referred to as "Second World", not "Third World."

Right now it's too early to point fingers. Was it a manufacturing flaw of the Briz-M stage at Khrunichev? Was it ILS's fault? Not many Roskosmos Proton launches have failed.

And to blame Kazakhstan/Russia isn't exactly valid either...if indeed it's ILS's fault, ILS is based in the US.

Right now we don't know why it failed, and we don't know what the cause of the failure was or where it was originated. So we don't know who is to blame, and it's too early to jump to conclusions or point fingers. All we know at this point is that it did fail, and the satellite failed to reach the proper orbit.

As the situation unfolds, we'll be able to know more. For now, though, most of these points made here are only speculation, and hold no validity.

 

[RedSavina]

Greener Grass?

The issue of how the two companies count their HD channels is a topic of much debate (see the war zone). That being said, there is little debate that many of the D*-only HD channels are currently NOT broadcasting HD-only programming.

For now, it is debatable whether the grass is really greener... Once those "HD" channels (Weather, etc) start providing content in HD, then the grass will be greener!

Dish's challenge is to provide those channels once the HD content is available - otherwise they are toast!

Right now DirecTV is the perceived leader because they have many of the HD channels lined up. They cannot be declared victorious until they have the HD content and Dish does not. The recent "anomaly" suggests DirecTV will prevail, but I wouldn't count Charlie out yet - too many others have regretted doing so in the past.

Now, back to the other departures from the topic of this thread!

EDIT: added bold text to correct mis-statement. OOPS! Best to type exactly what one means!

 

[Hemi 6.1]

It's unknown as to if it's operational or not. At the very least it could be leasing a car that doesn't come with a full tank of gas on delivery and comes with a couple hundred thousand miles on it. At most, it's totaled and comes in on a flatbed.

If it's totaled on a flatbed, hope their insurance covers it. I'm sure the insurance company is one of the players in phone calls at the moment for that reason.



And if they could call Doc Brown and go back 4 years, I'm sure they could get their own sat built. The reality is 4 years (in the case of AMC-14). The question is whether there is anything that they can do that will make something happen this year. Even if they had a sat sitting on the ground ready to go.

Where's E-11 sitting? Its not built yet?

 

[rad]

The issue of how the two companies count their HD channels is a topic of much debate (see the war zone). That being said, there is little debate that many of the D* HD channels are currently NOT broadcasting HD programming.

For now, it is debatable whether the grass is really greener... Once those "HD" channels (Weather, etc) start providing content in HD, then the grass will be greener!

Dish's challenge is to provide those channels once the HD content is available - otherwise they are toast!

Right now DirecTV is the perceived leader because they have many of the HD channels lined up. They cannot be declared victorious until they have the HD content and Dish does not. The recent "anomaly" suggests DirecTV will prevail, but I wouldn't count Charlie out yet - too many others have regretted doing so in the past.

Now, back to the other departures from the topic of this thread!

Ah, another thread from a E* customer saying that D* has 'many' HD channels that don't provide any content in HD, and specifically lists The Weather Channel as one of them.

The HD channels that D* has that haven't shown any HD content are:

Toon, Nickelodeon, CMT, MTV, VH1, CSTV

Sorry but IMHO 6 channels is not a good defintion of 'many'.

Now on the flip side, HD channels, that have shown some HD content that D* has and E* doesn't are:

Bravo, Biography, FX, MGM, SciFi, Smithsonian, Spike, USA, CNN, CNBC, FBN, TWC, Cinemax West, HBO West, The Movie Channel, Showtime West, Sho Too, Starz Comedy, Starz Edge, Starz West, Speed, Tennis.

Now IMHO that's a good use of the word 'many' to discribe the number of national HD channels that E* doesn't carry

 

[Stargazer]

For those folks that say "just replace all the MPEG-2 receivers with MPEG-4 receivers" - There are AT LEAST 10 or 12 million MPEG-2 boxes out there, probably quite a few more. Think Dish has a spare billion dollars laying around to do this, and the Magic Fairy has a factory to pump them out ASAP?

For Polk and the others that keep belittling Russian space hardware. The Proton launch vehicle has about a 98% success rate. It has made over 325 launches in all it's variations. The 325th launch was in April 2007. The Russians have made more space launches than the U.S. - indeed, probably more than the rest of the world combined. And I can assure you, most of their military hardware is top notch. Might I refer you to the word chauvinism.

This might not impact Dish's plans too much. No reason to take joy and immediately prophesy gloom and doom. Schadenfreude.

I think Dish Network would be better off using the money being the low cost leader to gain more subscribers than putting billions in equipment swapout and offer what HD channels that they do have for free or for only $5 more per month (what they probably have in those channels anyhow). There are more ways to be competitive than offering the most HD channels. I actually think dropping the price $10 per month and offering HD for $5 per month would gain more customers than offering all of those HD customers. Money talks.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

Now on the flip side, HD channels, that have shown some HD content that D* has and E* doesn't are:

Bravo, Biography, FX, MGM, SciFi, Smithsonian, Spike, USA, CNN, CNBC, FBN, TWC, Cinemax West, HBO West, The Movie Channel, Showtime West, Sho Too, Starz Comedy, Starz Edge, Starz West, Speed, Tennis.

Now IMHO that's a good use of the word 'many' to discribe the number of national HD channels that E* doesn't carry

Don't Forget YESHD,CSTVHD

 

[rad]

Don't Forget YESHD,CSTVHD

I was avoiding all the RSN channels. Did forget to put CSTV in with no HD content being seen though, I'll add that. Thanks

 

[RedSavina]

Rad-

Please see my response offline via PM (so as not to hijack the thread any longer).

 

[Yes616]

Emergency Charlie Chat!

I think Charlie should step up to the plate tomorrow (Monday) night and address this issue. By that time he should be able to tell us something.

For the first time in a long time I was impressed with the last chat where he finally announced new HD to come and the satellite launch.

Not many people even know the launch failed but some do. He now should announce what he knows, what plan B is (if there is a plan B) and (using a Greaseman word) schpill his guts.

Greaseman.org

 

[odbrv]

What is the timeframe and likelihood of the joint E* and D* filing with the FCC to share HD locals, ? If that passes, then massive HD capacity frees up for both companies and the AMC-14 launch failure becomes less of a problem for E*. Right now E* has 30 local HD DMAs. At 4 HD channels minimum per local DMA that is 200 HD channels. So ,if they carry their half and D* carries their half that could free up 100 HD channels. That will be quite enough until a new satellite can get launched.

 

[rad]

What is the timeframe and likelihood of the joint E* and D* filing with the FCC to share HD locals, ? If that passes, then massive HD capacity frees up for both companies and the AMC-14 launch failure becomes less of a problem for E*. Right now E* has 30 local HD DMAs. At 4 HD channels minimum per local DMA that is 200 HD channels. So ,if they carry their half and D* carries their half that could free up 100 HD channels. That will be quite enough until a new satellite can get launched.

That option then opens up an entier new can of worms. Which companies encryption/security system do they use. Do they use D*'s Ka band at 99/103 or use E*'s eastern/western arc Ku? Will receivers need to be swapped/replaced or dishes/LNB's. Might be quicker to get get another sat built/lanched

 

[navychop]

Uh, the countries that made up the Soviet Union were referred to as "Second World", not "Third World."

Yep, that's why I put "third world" in quotes. Too many people speak disparagingly of other countries, playing an ugly American, when they clearly don't know what they're talking about.

Right now it's too early to point fingers. Was it a manufacturing flaw of the Briz-M stage at Khrunichev? Was it ILS's fault? Not many Roskosmos Proton launches have failed.

And to blame Kazakhstan/Russia isn't exactly valid either...if indeed it's ILS's fault, ILS is based in the US.

Right now we don't know why it failed, and we don't know what the cause of the failure was or where it was originated. So we don't know who is to blame, and it's too early to jump to conclusions or point fingers. All we know at this point is that it did fail, and the satellite failed to reach the proper orbit.

Yep. Could be software or something else. Who wrote the s/w? But with all the other problems the Breeze-M has had, it's looking bad for Khrunichev.

As the situation unfolds, we'll be able to know more. For now, though, most of these points made here are only speculation, and hold no validity.

That's about all these forums are. This is not a site for experts to discuss and solve the world's problems. Until we finally get the word, all we can do is speculate. And then we'll speculate some more.

 

[navychop]

I think Charlie should step up to the plate tomorrow (Monday) night and address this issue. By that time he should be able to tell us something.

For the first time in a long time I was impressed with the last chat where he finally announced new HD to come and the satellite launch.

Not many people even know the launch failed but some do. He now should announce what he knows, what plan B is (if there is a plan B) and (using a Greaseman word) schpill his guts.

Greaseman.org

It's already been posted clearly that Charlie knows nothing. They will not tell him much until they've determined the exact situation and available options, if any. We don't need an announcement that he knows nothing. Sargent Schultz he isn't.

 

[flyingsquirrel]

Follow the money

The fact is Charlie will be out tons of money tomorrow if he doe not say something about this tonight (SUNDAY). Dish's stock will tank on the open Monday, maybe a loss of 50%, on this news. Mark it down.

Oh, by the way: There is no Plan B. And there is no Hidden Capacity. IF there were, we would have seen it by now.

The only significant advantage that Dish has over Directv right now is the 622/722. And that is only in the area of recording OTA in HD (three at once).

By the end of the month, Directv will have about 30 more national HD channels than Dish, including a couple that I want that Dish is not going to have this year.

Further, E11 is to be launched on Rockets manufactured by the same people who manufactured the launch vehicle for AMC 14. I would expect that the investigation would halt launches by a significant period of time (months).

The upshot:

* Expansion in the satellite industry is being driven by HD.

* Directv has about 30 more HD channels than Dish right now

* Assuming that Directv's satellite goes up without a hitch (not a safe bet), They will have 50-70 more by the end of the year

* Dish is in serious trouble.

 

[rad]

The fact is Charlie will be out tons of money tomorrow if he doe not say something about this tonight (SUNDAY). Dish's stock will tank on the open Monday, maybe a loss of 50%, on this news. Mark it down.

Down, maybe but 50%, no way. I'd be willing to bet any down movement would be in the single digits, unless the entier market tanks.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

Down, maybe but 50%, no way. I'd be willing to bet any down movement would be in the single digits, unless the entier market tanks.

What if Directv Buys them?

 

[Ronnie-]

Madtown:

Kiss your ViP DVR goodbye!

Just FYI, he is....He is switching tomorrow