Ken F - if we followed your theory a Dodge NEON would cost 170K - as you're building it in parts. One can't estimate unit cost this way.
Ken F said:
What would you pay for VOOM DVR?
- Thread starter Ken F
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I would pay 10 bux a month for a Voom DVR, but I won't pay a grand for the unit and 10...
I posted 400 or so for the unit and 10 bux a month, if it did all that they say it will...or I would pay a total of 19 in lease form. I should have considered that I'm paying 10 for my current STB and an increase of 10 would be reasonable.
I'm holding off on my purchase of a Roku 1000 because of what the Voom box might offer.
I posted 400 or so for the unit and 10 bux a month, if it did all that they say it will...or I would pay a total of 19 in lease form. I should have considered that I'm paying 10 for my current STB and an increase of 10 would be reasonable.
I'm holding off on my purchase of a Roku 1000 because of what the Voom box might offer.
Sure one can (estimate minimum price this way). When you buy parts for your car, you pay much, much more than what the automakers pay. They build some of their own parts, and order others by the hundreds of thousands. The cost for the Broadcom parts I listed wasn't the single-unit, end-customer price. It was the manufacturer price in 10,000 unit quantities. When you know approximately how much manufacturers pay for their components, you know roughly how much it costs to build (but not develop, support, or market) the box.
In a $500 PC from Dell, you may have $350 in parts, plus their cost for Windows XP (~$30-$40). Though they make most of their money on higher-end configurations, they can still sell PCs this low and make money because of the quantity they sell. In a Dell PC, the majority of the cost is represented by the components. They don't have to develop their own components or software; they buy everything off the shelf, aside from the case. If Dell had to design all their own components (graphics cards, motherboards) and develop their own software--as most STB vendors do--the price of their PCs would be far higher.
The trend is toward HDCP for everything DVI and HDMI. By the time it is possible to affordably encode anything close to 1.5 gigabytes per second of video data in real-time, there won't be many, if any, "in the clear" digital signals left. Note current boxes are one software upgrade away from HDCP support.
As far as component, the moment it becomes affordable to easily encode analog HDTV on a PC, the studios and content providers will have the ammunition they need to get the support of the FCC or legislature for closing the "analog hole." The broadcasters wanted the analog hole closed by a certain future date with the broadcast flag, but the FCC refused to do it, based on the fact that a) it would obsolete existing equipment, and b) there was no easy and affordable way to encode analog signals (at full quality) expected in the forseeable future.
By the time it does become easy and affordable to do some of what you are suggesting with the PC, HD DVRs will probably be far less expensive than they are today. When sufficient demand exists, silicon vendors will lower their component prices to take advantage of significantly higher volumes; right now, they have no incentive, because lowering their prices will also mean lower profits, without significant new demand for HD products. Perhaps at some point down the road, someone will also develop a reference STB PVR platform with hardware and software that can be used and mass produced by anyone, without significant investment in R&D or software, as is the case today for 2D/3D graphics cards. There is definitely that potential with OpenCable.
The automaker theory is partly true. Yes automakers pay much much less for their parts. However they have 3 year lead times, a staff that works on it for 3 years, build a hundred cars before the first one ever hits production and create so many one off parts that they do not make return on their investment until at least the 2nd or 3rd year of production.
Not to mention there is a certain amount of money 'baked' into each car for medical costs/health care, and the biggest warranty.
Just how long do you think its going to take before HDCP is worthless just like every other copy protection system thats ever come out?
If it can be 'flashed on' then it certainly can be 'flashed off'. It won't be long till someone makes a box that takes a HDCP signal, de-encrypts is the right way and passes it right out on un-encrypted in one form or another?
I've done some reading on HDCP and the problem with it is, your selling a standard and that standard is contained in both pieces of equipment the consumer purchased, once that hits mass market so will some type of hacking system for it.
It may not happen in this country but it will happen somewhere in the world. Look at the nice 1080i scaling DVD players you can buy from Hong Kong without HDCP, the only one that does it here in the US has HDCP.
Even the numbers you quoted on pricing and the small number of HDTV makers out there, how long do you think it will take for someone to put out a non-HDCP "reciever" for the most popular HD TV's?
Replace a logic board that does not contain HDCP?
Its not that far fetched, check out how many Xbox mod chips there are, the same idea. There are ALOT of very smart people in the world, all over, and the thing about the internet is those smart people can now reach the mass market very easily and without alot of reprocussions. I forgot the name of the filesharing system that is run out of a Palestinian Refuge Cam in Jenin, that is the ultimate sign that where there is a will, there is a way. They interviewed the owner/developer, he said who is going to come into a refuge camp basically in the middle of a war zone for this? He is untouchable and knows it. Many years ago it would not have mattered but now all it takes is a computer and a line. If someone were to come up with a scheme to defeat all this how hard do you think it would be for him to get a South Korean or Taiwanese shop to build boards, online ordering system, drop ship the product and there are plenty of online CC vendors to handle the transactions. You could run an entire operation from a single computer and never leave your house from anywhere in the world, thats a huge reason why HDCP and other products like it will never succeed.
Even Apple's vaunted copy protection scheme was 1/2 way cracked, granted it was analog only but IMO thats just because no one was bored enough or saw the reason to completely strip it out.
I still believe copy protection is a waste of time, better to make the product price competitive to reduce piracy. I think thats part of the reason why no one has really gone after Apple and iTunes, its a great product for a decent price.
Your last statement is completely true and I agree with you 100 percent, thats when I'll buy my HD DVR
Not to mention there is a certain amount of money 'baked' into each car for medical costs/health care, and the biggest warranty.
Just how long do you think its going to take before HDCP is worthless just like every other copy protection system thats ever come out?
If it can be 'flashed on' then it certainly can be 'flashed off'. It won't be long till someone makes a box that takes a HDCP signal, de-encrypts is the right way and passes it right out on un-encrypted in one form or another?
I've done some reading on HDCP and the problem with it is, your selling a standard and that standard is contained in both pieces of equipment the consumer purchased, once that hits mass market so will some type of hacking system for it.
It may not happen in this country but it will happen somewhere in the world. Look at the nice 1080i scaling DVD players you can buy from Hong Kong without HDCP, the only one that does it here in the US has HDCP.
Even the numbers you quoted on pricing and the small number of HDTV makers out there, how long do you think it will take for someone to put out a non-HDCP "reciever" for the most popular HD TV's?
Replace a logic board that does not contain HDCP?
Its not that far fetched, check out how many Xbox mod chips there are, the same idea. There are ALOT of very smart people in the world, all over, and the thing about the internet is those smart people can now reach the mass market very easily and without alot of reprocussions. I forgot the name of the filesharing system that is run out of a Palestinian Refuge Cam in Jenin, that is the ultimate sign that where there is a will, there is a way. They interviewed the owner/developer, he said who is going to come into a refuge camp basically in the middle of a war zone for this? He is untouchable and knows it. Many years ago it would not have mattered but now all it takes is a computer and a line. If someone were to come up with a scheme to defeat all this how hard do you think it would be for him to get a South Korean or Taiwanese shop to build boards, online ordering system, drop ship the product and there are plenty of online CC vendors to handle the transactions. You could run an entire operation from a single computer and never leave your house from anywhere in the world, thats a huge reason why HDCP and other products like it will never succeed.
Even Apple's vaunted copy protection scheme was 1/2 way cracked, granted it was analog only but IMO thats just because no one was bored enough or saw the reason to completely strip it out.
I still believe copy protection is a waste of time, better to make the product price competitive to reduce piracy. I think thats part of the reason why no one has really gone after Apple and iTunes, its a great product for a decent price.
Your last statement is completely true and I agree with you 100 percent, thats when I'll buy my HD DVR
...And Voom tends to be higher than other dbs providers. Actually it's (DVR service is $9.95 a month, this is the functionality of DVR. Plus the HD Converter rental of $9.00). Not $18.95 just for the DVR. So it does look like it is possile to have hd dvr for $9.
Here is the cost of the "Cox Cable that is more expensive" Ken F.
Cox HD Cable=Cox Standard service $39.95, Digital Cable (prices vary depending on package choices) HD Converter rental $9.00.
It is up to you to decide if you want to add Discovery HD $5.95 per month or HBO and SHO.
ESPNHD, INHD, INHD2, and Padres HD come with this level of service for no additional fee.
Cox HD Cable=Cox Standard service $39.95, Digital Cable (prices vary depending on package choices) HD Converter rental $9.00.
It is up to you to decide if you want to add Discovery HD $5.95 per month or HBO and SHO.
ESPNHD, INHD, INHD2, and Padres HD come with this level of service for no additional fee.
rex,
You can't lease it without paying the DVR fee; DVR functionality cannot be disabled on the SA8000HD. It is a marketing distinction, to make the fee more acceptable to the customer. I would not be surprised if VOOM did something similar -- ex: $14.99/mo plus a $4.99/mo DVR fee.
As far as cable pricing, I never said anything about Cox. I said that in general, cable tends to have higher overall programming costs. It certainly depends on where you live, and may also depend on what programming you want. In my case, VaVaVoom is almost $30/mo less than the comparable package from Comcast, which has InHD and ESPN-HD, but lacks Bravo-HD, Discovery-HD, TMC-HD, and Encore-HD.
You can't lease it without paying the DVR fee; DVR functionality cannot be disabled on the SA8000HD. It is a marketing distinction, to make the fee more acceptable to the customer. I would not be surprised if VOOM did something similar -- ex: $14.99/mo plus a $4.99/mo DVR fee.
As far as cable pricing, I never said anything about Cox. I said that in general, cable tends to have higher overall programming costs. It certainly depends on where you live, and may also depend on what programming you want. In my case, VaVaVoom is almost $30/mo less than the comparable package from Comcast, which has InHD and ESPN-HD, but lacks Bravo-HD, Discovery-HD, TMC-HD, and Encore-HD.
rex,
You can't lease it without paying the DVR fee; DVR functionality cannot be disabled on the SA8000HD. It is a marketing distinction, to make the fee more acceptable to the customer. I would not be surprised if VOOM did something similar -- ex: $14.99/mo plus a $4.99/mo DVR fee.
As far as cable pricing, I never said anything about Cox. I said that in general, cable tends to have higher overall programming costs. It certainly depends on where you live, and may also depend on what programming you want.
You can't lease it without paying the DVR fee; DVR functionality cannot be disabled on the SA8000HD. It is a marketing distinction, to make the fee more acceptable to the customer. I would not be surprised if VOOM did something similar -- ex: $14.99/mo plus a $4.99/mo DVR fee.
As far as cable pricing, I never said anything about Cox. I said that in general, cable tends to have higher overall programming costs. It certainly depends on where you live, and may also depend on what programming you want.
They wouldn't give those boxes to people who just wanted HD programming. Cox would give to who needed dvr and hd. I'm sure they have a seperate box (3250HD) just for HD only just as voom will.
I just went on a Cox forum and found it is a free upgrade. Except for a $10 installation fee if you do the upgrade yourself.
Pricing...
Unless I misses the link, the one I remember going to (for a press release from Voom, that is) had very little info about a DVR. They basically said they're planning to release one. Of course, I may not have seen the link you're referring to.
Anyway, pricing discussions are all fun but, again, unless someone here works for Voom/Motorola (assuming they're making a DVR for Voom) how can any of us really know what this thing may cost? Sure, they may have had a press release annoucing a DVR with certain capabilities but a press release is far from a product.
Ok, they've demoed something with DVR capabilities at a couple of shows. I've seen a lot of mock-ups at trade shows only to see the final product not having many capabilities demoed (just look at many concept cars).
Trust me, I really hope this DVR has a lot of these capabilities, it really sounds like an interesting product. However, until I've seen something a little more concrete I'm not getting overly excited about it.
As far as DVRs bringing in people to Voom, again, I don't see this happening. I think anyone can do a little research and see there aren't a lot of people who are taking advantage of HD. There are still a lot of people who don't have an HDTV and a lot of the people who DO have one don't necessarily care about HD programming.
Now, another thing is, how many of your friends have asked you, "So why would I need a Tivo if I already have a VCR?" Then you go on to explain why a Tivo-like device only to have your friends just not get it. I know ONE person (other than through the Internet) who has a Tivo. I have many friends who are technically savy and who would benefit from having one. Many of these friends are already with DTV and, as we all know, could get a Tivo fairly inexpensively. Bottom line, those of us around here are into new technologies, most people aren't. They're comfortable, they don't like change...even if it benefits them significantly.
So, I can't wait for a DVR which works with Voom. I really love my Tivo but I'm really hating DTV since I've gotten Voom (all nagging issues aside). However, I don't think a DVR will be the killer app which gets Voom rolling. Sure, it'll bring many people like us onto the service but, let's be real, how many of us are there out there? I doubt there are enough to have Voom break even much less earn a profit.
The Rickster
Unless I misses the link, the one I remember going to (for a press release from Voom, that is) had very little info about a DVR. They basically said they're planning to release one. Of course, I may not have seen the link you're referring to.
Anyway, pricing discussions are all fun but, again, unless someone here works for Voom/Motorola (assuming they're making a DVR for Voom) how can any of us really know what this thing may cost? Sure, they may have had a press release annoucing a DVR with certain capabilities but a press release is far from a product.
Ok, they've demoed something with DVR capabilities at a couple of shows. I've seen a lot of mock-ups at trade shows only to see the final product not having many capabilities demoed (just look at many concept cars).
Trust me, I really hope this DVR has a lot of these capabilities, it really sounds like an interesting product. However, until I've seen something a little more concrete I'm not getting overly excited about it.
As far as DVRs bringing in people to Voom, again, I don't see this happening. I think anyone can do a little research and see there aren't a lot of people who are taking advantage of HD. There are still a lot of people who don't have an HDTV and a lot of the people who DO have one don't necessarily care about HD programming.
Now, another thing is, how many of your friends have asked you, "So why would I need a Tivo if I already have a VCR?" Then you go on to explain why a Tivo-like device only to have your friends just not get it. I know ONE person (other than through the Internet) who has a Tivo. I have many friends who are technically savy and who would benefit from having one. Many of these friends are already with DTV and, as we all know, could get a Tivo fairly inexpensively. Bottom line, those of us around here are into new technologies, most people aren't. They're comfortable, they don't like change...even if it benefits them significantly.
So, I can't wait for a DVR which works with Voom. I really love my Tivo but I'm really hating DTV since I've gotten Voom (all nagging issues aside). However, I don't think a DVR will be the killer app which gets Voom rolling. Sure, it'll bring many people like us onto the service but, let's be real, how many of us are there out there? I doubt there are enough to have Voom break even much less earn a profit.
The Rickster
GadgetRick said:
Within two years, I suspect everything will be available in HD. Some cable and sat services may still not be 100% HD by then, so they will degrade the HD signal to SD. Most TV's still will not be HD, but ED and HD will be gaining steam by then. When people are forced to buy a HD receiver to keep watching OTA TV on their SDTV, many will instead opt to buy HDTV which by then will be much more reasonably priced.
You'll be in for a big surprise then. It will be many years before the majority of the channels in the TOP50 / Total Choice are available in HD. Cable and satellite aren't likely to gain capacity for a significant number of HD channels before 2007-2008. Content providers won't offer HD channels until they can be offered by multichannel video distributers.
For satellite, DBS spectrum is mostly spent. Unless the FCC elects to allow 4.5 degree DBS spacing, there won't be significant new bandwidth for HD until Ka in 2007-2009. Most cable networks won't have bandwidth for substantial new HD until they transition their analog channels (the extended basic tiers) to digital, thereby reclaiming capacity.
HD Programming
I've been hearing everything will be HD by sometime for quite some time now. Honestly, the amount of HD programming available is a joke based on how long HD has been around now. Why is this? Well, it goes back to what I'm saying, most people don't really care about it. I've shown many friends my home theater setup (it's an expensive hobby for me). They ALL talk about how great it is, how awesome it looks and how much they love the sound but not one of them has run out and bought even a cheezy HT setup because they saw it at my house. Many of them can certainly afford it.
HD is the same way only worse. It's not like someone who doesn't have basic surround sound and a big screen TV. They already are receiving the programming they want. It's not HD and, many times, it looks like crap but they don't care. They're happy with what they have. Who am I to tell them they're crazy for this?
People generally won't buy into technology until it's forced on them or it gets REALLY cheap as an alternative and, even then, they may not adopt it. Quite frankly, I'm still amazed at how quickly DVDs took off. I'd been owning/using laser discs for years before DVDs were even thought of and most people had never heard about them. Of course it's got a lot to do with marketing but that's another story.
I'll be really surprised if everything is HD in two years or 5 years. Talk about the cutoff dates the FCC mentioned originally all you want but people misunderstand these dates. They do not mean everything must be HD by a certain date.
I wish you were right but I don't see it happening that quickly...
The Rickster
I've been hearing everything will be HD by sometime for quite some time now. Honestly, the amount of HD programming available is a joke based on how long HD has been around now. Why is this? Well, it goes back to what I'm saying, most people don't really care about it. I've shown many friends my home theater setup (it's an expensive hobby for me). They ALL talk about how great it is, how awesome it looks and how much they love the sound but not one of them has run out and bought even a cheezy HT setup because they saw it at my house. Many of them can certainly afford it.
HD is the same way only worse. It's not like someone who doesn't have basic surround sound and a big screen TV. They already are receiving the programming they want. It's not HD and, many times, it looks like crap but they don't care. They're happy with what they have. Who am I to tell them they're crazy for this?
People generally won't buy into technology until it's forced on them or it gets REALLY cheap as an alternative and, even then, they may not adopt it. Quite frankly, I'm still amazed at how quickly DVDs took off. I'd been owning/using laser discs for years before DVDs were even thought of and most people had never heard about them. Of course it's got a lot to do with marketing but that's another story.
I'll be really surprised if everything is HD in two years or 5 years. Talk about the cutoff dates the FCC mentioned originally all you want but people misunderstand these dates. They do not mean everything must be HD by a certain date.
I wish you were right but I don't see it happening that quickly...
The Rickster
DVDs took off b/c the movie studios got behind them. HD seems to have more enemies than friends right now. DVRs haven't taken off b/c the movie and tv companies are scared of piracy. The FCC is a joke. The FCC should make vurbano's and rang's best buddie Phil Swann in charge so he can crack the whip and get things going. 
Exactly...
cyu:
This is exactly what I'm saying. There aren't a lot of friends of HD out there so it's taking forever for it to become adopted by the public.
The Rickster
cyu:
This is exactly what I'm saying. There aren't a lot of friends of HD out there so it's taking forever for it to become adopted by the public.
The Rickster
