What will happen to Blu-ray hardware sales in 2008?
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navychop
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We may have seriously underestimated the growth for 2008 - and thereafter. See the article quoted in this thread.
Maybe sometime between 2012 & 2015 we'll see Blu-ray sales exceed DVD sales.
Maybe sometime between 2012 & 2015 we'll see Blu-ray sales exceed DVD sales.
I dont think it will happen in 4 years (2012). If it happens, If HD becomes widely adopted by the consumer then maybe it will pass DVD in 10 years IF another format doesnt kill it off. Most people are not going to wheel out their 36" SOny trinitrons to the curb, they are going to wait until the set fails. And even today there are HUGE percentages of people who have HD sets and NO HD programming subscriptions. A lot of IF's have to come true for your dream to materialize. You do realize that BD sold .3% of the disc market in 2007??? 5.6 million compared to 1700 million for DVD. And you are predicting 50% in 4 years? I am not being negative towards BD with this post, only realistic in the hurdles that any HD format will have. My gosh look how many years it took to finally set a firm date for the digital transition? What what the first date? And how many times did it change? And still that has nothing to do with HD only digital.
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Wow, a decent post for vurb (in this thread anyway
)I agree they wont overtake DVD anytime soon, however I do think that disc sales will continue to rise over the next few years.
Well it will be interesting to revisit this in 4 years, but I bet that BD will outdo DVD in a few years. Why do people think consumers have a choice in this matter? BD will win the same way it beat HD DVD. Studios are not interesting in cutting prices, they want a price increase. 10 years of inflation has happened since the release of DVD, yet DVD average selling price has gone down. This is not because the price of pressing a DVD has gone from $1 to 25 cents or less. It has come out of studio margins.
Studios are taking it on the chin because they have to pay the inflated costs to make movies and a giant revenue stream is drying up at the rate of inflation every year.
A new business model will emerge. Big movies will go to BD for $30-40 for a while, perhaps 6 months or longer before they move to the bargain DVD for $20-25 and then drift down lower. They will probably keep a $10-15 spread between BD and DVD for catalog titles. Eventually getting rid of DVD catalog titles. DVD quality will be cut. Why make a double layer high bit rate DVD with a ton of special features when BD is there. Single layer basic DVDs will become the norm. DVD will become the next VHS by comparison.
I fully expect that sometime in 2009 the first movies will start to be released earlier on BD. There will be an all out war with slyfox to keep BD+ secure. The longer a secure copy exists on BD the more money they will be able to make. Most people will not have the internet bandwidth to really pirate a bunch of HD movies anyways, keeping them off of DVD longer will help.
Consumers will be driven to BD, did you really think they would have a choice?
Studios are taking it on the chin because they have to pay the inflated costs to make movies and a giant revenue stream is drying up at the rate of inflation every year.
A new business model will emerge. Big movies will go to BD for $30-40 for a while, perhaps 6 months or longer before they move to the bargain DVD for $20-25 and then drift down lower. They will probably keep a $10-15 spread between BD and DVD for catalog titles. Eventually getting rid of DVD catalog titles. DVD quality will be cut. Why make a double layer high bit rate DVD with a ton of special features when BD is there. Single layer basic DVDs will become the norm. DVD will become the next VHS by comparison.
I fully expect that sometime in 2009 the first movies will start to be released earlier on BD. There will be an all out war with slyfox to keep BD+ secure. The longer a secure copy exists on BD the more money they will be able to make. Most people will not have the internet bandwidth to really pirate a bunch of HD movies anyways, keeping them off of DVD longer will help.
Consumers will be driven to BD, did you really think they would have a choice?
why make high bitrate DVD like superbit anyway, The vast majority of consumers arent interested in it. DVD sales numbers proves it.
Can I have some of whatever you are smoking?
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What were HD-DVD people smoking thinking they would have a choice in the matter? Profit drives all, and studios want more of it and they see it in BD.
I think this is the worst strategy BDA can employ.
That makes the likelihood of them at least try it quite high.
And it might succeed...
Right after the world peace problem is solved and hell freezes over...
Diogen.
I think this is the worst strategy BDA can employ.
That makes the likelihood of them at least try it quite high.
And it might succeed...
Right after the world peace problem is solved and hell freezes over...
Diogen.
BDA has nothing to do with it now... It is up to the studios now, they want to maximize every dollar they can get out of a release. If I were a studio, I would be looking at ways to get the consumers moved to a higher profit item ASAP. They do not seem to be able to raise DVD prices much, so why not milk the "rich" HD owner first then give to the masses.
According to the 2007 data, the ASP (average selling price) of a hidef disk was $30.
I don't think the consumers paid more than $20 in average with all the BOGOs, 5 free with a purchase of a player, free mail-ins, etc.
Do you believe studios swallowed this difference? I don't.
And considering scarce replication options (and it will get worse before it gets better), BDA (and Sony in particular as the one
of only two volume replicators) has more control over the whole business than ever before.
It's not the profit margin per-se, but profit times the number of sales that matters...
Because they have tried this with DVD-A/SACD and everybody knows how that turned up...
BD sold as many discs in whole 2007 as DVD did in one day.
The regular DVD business, although not growing anymore, is still a $20+ billion dollar business.
Studios will try to preserve every penny of it before they go for this "pie in the sky" in the form of BD, I believe.
Diogen.
navychop
Purveyor of the Finest Encabulators!
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First, it is the STUDIOS that are eager for a way to preserve their income stream on selling their movies. They see declining profits from DVDs and are looking to the future. Hardly "pie in the sky." If they don't look ahead a few years, they will wither.
OH, I don't know about 4 years. You're referring to the article. But I guess around 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see Blu-ray overtake DVD in sales, by dollar or units. And there is no other format threatening it. If one develops, it will take years to grow. Save me the download story. That's rental, even if it could be sales- and we simply don't have, and won't for the foreseeable future, enough internet bandwidth to support it. Both "last mile" and backbone.
I agree with Mike. The BDA and studios no doubt have plans to encourage the adoption of Blu-ray. And the digital transition was managed by the government. The government has nothing to do with the spread of Blu-ray.
All these naysayers. You were blind about HD DVD, and so wrong. Why do you think you could possibly be right about the failure of Blu-ray? Your track record for predictions is poor. Don't confuse what you might LIKE to see with what we are likely to see.
OH, I don't know about 4 years. You're referring to the article. But I guess around 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see Blu-ray overtake DVD in sales, by dollar or units. And there is no other format threatening it. If one develops, it will take years to grow. Save me the download story. That's rental, even if it could be sales- and we simply don't have, and won't for the foreseeable future, enough internet bandwidth to support it. Both "last mile" and backbone.
I agree with Mike. The BDA and studios no doubt have plans to encourage the adoption of Blu-ray. And the digital transition was managed by the government. The government has nothing to do with the spread of Blu-ray.
All these naysayers. You were blind about HD DVD, and so wrong. Why do you think you could possibly be right about the failure of Blu-ray? Your track record for predictions is poor. Don't confuse what you might LIKE to see with what we are likely to see.
You know, the words quoted above sound harsh but the same thoughts have crossed my mind many times since Blu-Ray won. Why should we listen to people that were so convinced that HD-DVD would win? To put it more bluntly, you haven't been correct yet, why should we start listening now?
As navy pointed out in his last line, one of the classic blunders that HD-DVD fanboys began committing over and over when Blu-Ray took the lead was confusing what was happening with what they WANTED to be happening.
Heck, I want Blu-Ray to take over DVD by this Christmas what I want is not what I truly think is going to happen.
No, I am referring to your own nonsense here:
Thats nice but the consumer decided the war. You can argue that BOGO's supported by the companies helped but in the DVD war the numbers of DVD users are so massive that BDA simply does not have the cash to support that kind of effort. And quite frankly its laughable to even suggest that there is a DVD vs BD war right now. Its like saying that Tibet may overtake China.
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I do not recall making predictions of victory for either format. What I do recall are stating the facts that HD DVD was the more efficient, mature and consumer friendly format. That fact has never changed. Even today BD still has not caught up with cheap full featured Profile 2.0 players. The BD hardware raping continues. Every HD DVD standalone player met all specs. I also never made any statement on par with the stupidity I see here suggesting the demise of DVD in a few years.
What track record we all looked at the facts and made our decision. I still and will always stand by the fact that every HD DVD stand alone was made to complete specs and was better for the consumer, but as we now see it was more about backroom wheeling and dealing then what was best for the consumer. So again how stupid is it for you and db2 to question someone’s track record? I guess your track record is great because: 1. WB actually selected HD DVD but couldn’t get another studio to come over with them 2. Sony had the deep pockets to influence behind the scenes? Whose dreaming now? You been doing a lot of dreaming lately.
