What will happen to Blu-ray hardware sales in 2008?

[navychop]

What will happen to Blu-ray hardware sales in 2008?

As compared to 2007, that is?

And this would be including the PS3 and all dedicated stand alone players, but not PC drive. I think we'll be able to get results and see how close we are.

I bring this up because I've seen articles where some analysts estimate a 2.5 increase in hardware sales. And many of us talk about good growth, but what is good growth? Double sales? Triple? More?

 

[teamerickson]

More than triple.

 

[nonrev]

At these prices and rising I doubt that. Look for Toshiba to launch a very aggressive campaign for their new cell based upconverters. Sony fears nothing more than America re-enjoying their DVD collection at a level that blows them away. That will really under cut BD sales.

 

[navychop]

I'm sure they're quaking in fear.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

Does this really matter. There's no competion in this war anymore ! Let it go! If someone wants a DVD player thats HD ,they have only one format choice.

 

[nonrev]

Hemi your missing the point. Its not about a player its about HD content and how its delivered.

 

[JAG72]

Hemi your missing the point. Its not about a player its about HD content and how its delivered.

Then why do you keep bringing up the topic of upconverters if it is all about HD content?

 

[charper1]

I selected the safe bet of double; but I think it is likely to go 3x or higher.

 

[navychop]

I could be wrong, but I suspect growth in 2009 will be much greater than 2008. More education of the masses, more awareness of "HD" and lower prices combined with many more titles available. I suspect as 2009 dawns, there will be over 1200 titles, maybe 1500 titles, crossing all genres and with very wide appeal. And regular releases of every worthwhile title that hits the theaters. 3,000 titles by Xmas 2009, anyone?

 

[meStevo]

Due to PS3s resurgence as a viable gaming platform, i think it will be hard to really judge Blu-Ray's success unless we get reporting on standalone hardware figures, and without competition to squish there won't be a need to boast/hide those numbers, so they won't get disclosed/talked about IMO.

Only telling part will be software sales for the PS3, with high profile titles cracking the top 10 on opening week or so, and then disappearing quickly from the charts. That will be an indication of Blu-Ray's success, and the PS3s failure as a gaming machine with the way things are now.

Of course, things are changing, Home 'eventually', the ever expanding library, will be an interesting year to watch. Now that I own both, I get to sit back and reap the benefits of the further maturation of Sony's console and the competition with the 360.

Not including the PS3, I chose sales to double. There will be more people purchasing players, and there will be pack in deals with TVs as well to expose/draft more people into the format.

 

[gadgtfreek]

Whoever picked either of the first 2, I hope you have not begun to reproduce.

 

[Ronnie-]

Then why do you keep bringing up the topic of upconverters if it is all about HD content?

Exactly, he has mentioned upconverters many many times in the past few weeks.

 

[Ronnie-]

Whoever picked either of the first 2, I hope you have not begun to reproduce.

You and me both!
I can MAYBE see the second choice, but for it to be gone????

 

[jgantert]

You and me both!
I can MAYBE see the second choice, but for it to be gone????

Only if the economy tanks this year.

If the economy keep on as it is, sales should atleast double. All those HD DVD player sales last year will now be blu-ray player sales this year.

Of course, if we hit $5/gal gasoline prices, all bets are off.

-John

 

[robre]

It all depends on profile 2.0 player prices, in my opinion. I and many others jumped on HD DVD last year because it was a low cost to get into HD, and the player features were complete in all the players. $400 to $500 for a Blu Player is a lot for the mass consumer to spend on a player when the difference between HD and a standard DVD, though nice, is no where near as big as the difference was between VHS and DVD, especially with some of the upconverting players out there. I disagree that most people that would have bought HD DVD players last year will now automatically buy Blu Ray players. And it is not like most people with HD TV's do not have access to HD. I have satellite and have tons of HD to watch. I am into quality, but the average consumer is not. My wife and kids can care less about HD. To them DVD looks great, and they are probably more like the average consumer. If quality Blu Ray players hit the $200 to $300 price point and the price of Blu Ray disks come down to smaller premium over DVD prices, then Blu Ray player sales could take off. Since Toshiba threw in the towel, it looks like Blu Ray player prices have gone in the wrong direction, and good sale prices on media are not as common. You can look at the top sellers at Amazon for DVD players, and the ranking of Blu Ray players have dropped, while the HD DVD players (a dead format) are still ranked higher, because the consumer wants lower prices.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

It all depends on profile 2.0 player prices, in my opinion. I and many others jumped on HD DVD last year because it was a low cost to get into HD, and the player features were complete in all the players. $400 to $500 for a Blu Player is a lot for the mass consumer to spend on a player when the difference between HD and a standard DVD, though nice, is no where near as big as the difference was between VHS and DVD, especially with some of the upconverting players out there. I disagree that most people that would have bought HD DVD players last year will now automatically buy Blu Ray players. And it is not like most people with HD TV's do not have access to HD. I have satellite and have tons of HD to watch. I am into quality, but the average consumer is not. My wife and kids can care less about HD. To them DVD looks great, and they are probably more like the average consumer. If quality Blu Ray players hit the $200 to $300 price point and the price of Blu Ray disks come down to smaller premium over DVD prices, then Blu Ray player sales could take off. Since Toshiba threw in the towel, it looks like Blu Ray player prices have gone in the wrong direction, and good sale prices on media are not as common. You can look at the top sellers at Amazon for DVD players, and the ranking of Blu Ray players have dropped, while the HD DVD players (a dead format) are still ranked higher, because the consumer wants lower prices.

Exactly,and lets not forget ,people with regular DVD players thats PQ looks perfectly fine and works well for them ,are not going to spend 3,4,5,or $600,or Even a grand on a Blu Ray Player. For what the movies cost vs PQ . I think most all consumers will do just fine with $100 or less, Progressive Scan DVD player. But with Blu Ray being the only HD movie format, I'm sure sales would go up. I think sales would have gone up before If you could get on for $199. Why is Toshiba done selling HD-DVD, Because of Blu Ray,I doubts thats the only reason. There's Not a high demand for people to spend Hundreds of hard earned $$$ on a damn DVD Player. Whats so Bad about watchen a Progressive Scan DVD player. PQ is better then any SD TV program or movie. Blu Ray and HD DVD is not as big as some of you's think. I'm the only one out of all my friends and family that Have a Blu Ray. And Its a PS-3. And 2 other people have a HD DVD players. They already said they aren't buying a Blu ray anytime soon.There's people that don't even know what the hell HD is.

 

[gadgtfreek]

Of course, if we hit $5/gal gasoline prices, all bets are off.

-John

No crap, I think $4 is coming, which means we'll settle back out aboe $3 for good. Its def creeping up every year and hurting everyone.

Im fixing to trade my truck in on a nice little scion so I can get 30+ mpg's. Screw status, Im tired of getting raped at the pump.

 

[navychop]

I just watched diesel go up 8 cents overnight. $3.86 now. Gas $3.26. I think we'll see $4 this summer.

Of course, that could be encouragement to stay home for your entertainment.

I put the first choice in to allow for someone (a certain someone? ) to vent his usual suppressed opinion.

 

[gadgtfreek]

Hehe.

its $3.10 here in Sc

I agree, $4 this summer and then itll settle in mid 3's. Well be in high 3's then mid 4's next summer. I feel it wont settle until we get an average price a little closer to europe.

If someone puposely buys a nice dodge hemi or a new tundra right now(i personally love those two trucks), i have no sympathy for em.

 

[db2]

I see Vurbano already put his vote in :haha