I'd put NHL-HD near the top of any list given that it is actually live already. Then again, maybe hockey isn't a sport after all...
The non-HD "HD" channels run a non-negligible risk of becoming a bullseye on D*'s back for the competition's holiday advertising campaigns that will start in a month or less.
I don't think the general public looks as deeply into this as you suggest. After all, the cable industry gave DirecTV extremely high marks for its ads of the past 2 years.
Also, by next month, the number of channels should be in the 85 range as I hear it.
And from what I am hearing, DirecTV is having a ball with this - they are busier than ever with new customers - having a tough time keeping up actually.
Time will tell just how they all do between now and end January (SUPERBOWL time). I'm willing to bet DirecTV does JUST FINE.