Web Article: Has XBox360 already won the console war?

[BobMurdoch]

http://www.betanews.com/article/Has_Xbox_360_Already_Won_the_War/1165514003

Using the arbitrary 10 million benchmark, they may have gotten off to an insurmountable lead. They've shipped 10 million units to retailers, all in the pipeline expected to be sold by the end of the year...

 

[cybertrip]

I would say they already won.

Now, it's time to play GoW on my new 61" Samsung DLP.

 

[JamesJ]

http://www.betanews.com/article/Has_Xbox_360_Already_Won_the_War/1165514003

Using the arbitrary 10 million benchmark, they may have gotten off to an insurmountable lead. They've shipped 10 million units to retailers, all in the pipeline expected to be sold by the end of the year...

does this number include all the ones that are broken? I know alot of people that sold their broken ones on ebay, or theirs started freezing and sold their SOON to be broken ones on ebay, and bought another 360, actually I myself went through quite a few 360's (3) this way as I didnt want to wait 2-21/2 weeks for microsoft to fix it for me, also while I dont doubt microsoft has a great lead, its just WAY to early to see what is going to happen, the Ps3 has been out all of 3 weeks, with 2nd and 3rd shipments just now rolling in.

 

[Madtown HD Junkie]

I would say they already won.

Now, it's time to play GoW on my new 61" Samsung DLP.

GoW rocks :up

 

[griz_fan]

Yeah, I think less than three weeks is enough time to truly evaluate the long-term success of the PS3 and the Wii. </sarcasm>

I don't think we'll have a reliable indication of which way this race will go until next holiday season. By then, both the Wii and PS3 will have a full year of their own. I think Microsoft is really hitting it out of the park this year with a fantastic lineup of games for the 360 to go along with a great marketing plan, but it is too early to declare a winner. Remember, if manufacturing can keep up, Nintendo will have moved at least 6 million units by the end of their fiscal year in March 07, and that number could go as high as 9 million units. That's a lot of systems in a short amount of time, and I've read that Nintendo is seeing a great attach rate for games and accessories.
I don't see Nintendo necessarily taking a lot of sales from the 360, but Nintendo can easily do a price drop in the spring to juice up sales and clear 10 million in 1/2 the time it took the 360. The PS3? I don't know, Sony has dug a pretty deep hole. High price, bad publicity, manufacturing issues, there's a lot to worry about for the PS3. It is possible that the Wii and 360 can come out of this holiday season with so much momentum, the PS3 may never catch up, especially at $600. And if the Blu-Ray drive continues to cause a slowdown in manufacturing, this generation could leave Sony in the dust.

So, my prediction? Next year, 360 in 1st place in North America and Europe, 3rd place in Japan. Wii a close 2nd in North America, 2nd in Europe and 1st in Japan. PS3 3rd place in North America and Europe, 2nd place in Japan. Overall, 360 and Wii neck-and-neck, with the PS3 a distant 3rd. From a profitability perspective, both Microsoft and Nintendo will eat Sony's lunch.

 

[BobMurdoch]

does this number include all the ones that are broken? I know alot of people that sold their broken ones on ebay, or theirs started freezing and sold their SOON to be broken ones on ebay, and bought another 360, actually I myself went through quite a few 360's (3) this way as I didnt want to wait 2-21/2 weeks for microsoft to fix it for me, also while I dont doubt microsoft has a great lead, its just WAY to early to see what is going to happen, the Ps3 has been out all of 3 weeks, with 2nd and 3rd shipments just now rolling in.

Yeah, I know. I heard the local Best Buy could "roll in" with them on a handtruck instead of a palette. They are getting in less than a dozen for each "batch".

I can't believe Sony dropped the ball so badly on the supply front. They were supposed to release this last spring. There is NO reason for them to blunder the supply like they have.

I've been to a bunch of CE stores in the last month. None have had any PS3 or Wii units. I found a Wii unit (my wife got impatient and got it on EBay from a couple that camped overnight)and had a bear of a time even finding controllers for it (I eventually found 4 of the "remote" controllers at a Target in Lakewood, NJ last Saturday... there were 4 on the shelf and I grabbed three of them... I found 2 "classic" controllers at the Virgin store in Times Square in NYC last Sunday as well). I still haven't found any of the nunchuka plug in controllers to supplement the one that came with the system...

At every store, I've seen people grabbing XBox 360 boxes (all premiums). A half dozen on display in the Target/Walmart type stores. A couple dozen on palettes in the Best Buys/Circuit Citys/Toys R Us stores.

EVERY visit saw at least 1-2 people grabbing a 360 while I was there. On the supply front, MS is winning the war, although I don't know how many Wiis have been getting snapped up when they first become available in the morning....

 

[shanewalker]

I bought a 360 Premium w/ HD-DVD add-on after giving up on a PS3 this holiday season. I'm happy with it, but still plan on getting a PS3 down the line when supplies are normalized and more of the must-have titles are out (i.e. in Q1/Q2 '07). I'm also waiting for more must-have titles to be available in Blu-ray format...so far most of what I've been interested in has turned up on the HD-DVD side of things.

My experience w/ the Playstation 2 and the PS exclusive title franchises, however, makes me say this 'console war' is just beginning, not over by any stretch. The 360 has solid sports and FPS/shooter franchises (though the sports aren't exclusives), but little else to make one 'catch their breath' w/ gottahavit wonder. Where are all the fantastic RPGs, the platformers, all the other types of games that are industry paragons? Some solid titles, but not the best of breed, I'll tell you, not like the Playstation's Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, God of War, Ratchet and Clank, etc. franchises. All-in-all, Xbox-land suffers from over-concentration in only certain types of games/gameplay. There are, in truth, 360-exclusive fighters like 'Dead or Alive' and sims like 'Viva Pinata' and future exclusive titles like 'Mass Effect' (an amazing-looking RPG/shooter hybrid) that may start to change that, but it still is a platform biased towards a certain type of gamer, the FPS/shooter-fanatic.

Likewise, on the movie end, I give the PS3 slack as the majority of studios supporting Blu-ray are just ramping up their release output. Point being, likewise, there are several must-have cinema titles/franchises you'll only be able to watch on a Blu-ray player.

Let's talk in Summer '07 and see where things are...console supply will be plentiful and there will be plenty of game content out there for the new systems (PS3 and Wii). I might have all three platforms at that stage and will be using them for all their strengths--they ALL have strengths/weaknesses.

I think then you'll have accurate sustainable growth prospects for each system/disc format. This holiday season has just been the curtain-open and many are naive to think that the first scene's dramatic arc constitutes the resolution of the whole play.

 

[BobMurdoch]

My point was just that Microsoft will have had two holiday seasons to get their product into consumers' hands. Yes, the PS3 is out now, but it has been seen in only display kiosks by most as only 150,000-200,000 supposedly made it into retailers hands at launch.

They also shipped about twice the number of consoles that Sony did on launch day. They were still scarce, but they were gettable. Nintendo matched Microsoft's launch with about 400,000 at launch.

I don't think that supply will be as much a problem in 2007 as the price point. About 2% of the installed base have upgraded to HD DVD, while 100% will have to get the BluRay premium on the Sony side. I just can't see that many households not balking at that high a price point.

Regardless, next April will tell the tale. that should be the point at which supply catches up to demand. Since the PS2 had an installed base 4-5 times larger than the original XBox had, they should be able to rapidly retake the lead in market share on a monthly sales basis. If they don't by next summer, they are in trouble.....

 

[shanewalker]

Points well taken. Only one caveat...

Please let's dispense w/ the "high price" myth of the PS3 vs. the 360. $600 is a fair chunk o' change, yeah, but look at what you get...versus what you get w/ the 360. Or the Wii (an even bigger rip-off if you already own a GameCube...you're paying $250 for a CONTROLLER [o.k., and a bundled set of mini-games]).

I paid just as much to get the 360 premium w/ HD-DVD add-on as I would've to get the PS3. No buts about it--feature-for-feature the Xbox 360 is every bit as expensive as Sony's offering.

Microsoft and the PC marketeers have always been good at perpetuating their 'value illusion' vs. the competition, though. It rarely stands up to careful scrutiny of feature sets, build quality, end user experience per dollar spent, etc. however...

I did feel pressured by users/instore/online to get the extended warranty on my 360 system, after all...and Microsoft even pressures you to do so in the literature included in the box. How's that for value? We'll see how these systems fare in the long run and folks can then say how much they REALLY got for their money...that's the mark of a smart consumer in my book.

 

[vinnyv07]

I paid just as much to get the 360 premium w/ HD-DVD add-on as I would've to get the PS3. No buts about it--feature-for-feature the Xbox 360 is every bit as expensive as Sony's offering.

Without a doubt the two units are priced the same when it is all said and done. If you just pay for the core system XBOX360 than you can run into big bucks just to buy all of the stuff you need to get going. Either way you are spending over 600 for each system.

 

[s8ist]

Without a doubt the two units are priced the same when it is all said and done. If you just pay for the core system XBOX360 than you can run into big bucks just to buy all of the stuff you need to get going. Either way you are spending over 600 for each system.

But if you really wanted to, you could buy the core system if you didn't plan on using xbox live, or do not have a broadband connection in your house in the first place. Consequently, the cost of entry is lower on the 360, if you do not plan on using the harddrive, a high def connection, or wireless controllers. In other words, if you are on a budget or a lower income bracket, at least a cost-effective solution exists for the MS customer, whereas the lower income PS customer will most likely have to buy on credit or consider the lower cost alternatives. Value titles are also available now, which might make getting a core package, another controller, and a game or two more attractive than the barebones ps3 console.

All things being equal on the high-end however, yes, they are priced comparably.

 

[Paradox-SJ]

But if you really wanted to, you could buy the core system if you didn't plan on using xbox live, or do not have a broadband connection in your house in the first place. Consequently, the cost of entry is lower on the 360, if you do not plan on using the harddrive, a high def connection, or wireless controllers. In other words, if you are on a budget or a lower income bracket, at least a cost-effective solution exists for the MS customer, whereas the lower income PS customer will most likely have to buy on credit or consider the lower cost alternatives. Value titles are also available now, which might make getting a core package, another controller, and a game or two more attractive than the barebones ps3 console.

All things being equal on the high-end however, yes, they are priced comparably.

Here is a thought:
If your on a budget or low income...maybe you shouldnt worry about such high-priced toys for the 'rich' .,...that you cant afford?

 

[s8ist]

Here is a thought:
If your on a budget or low income...maybe you shouldnt worry about such high-priced toys for the 'rich' .,...that you cant afford?

Well now, that should work as brilliantly as the suggestion of abstinence.

 

[FunkyBoss]

But if you really wanted to, you could buy the core system if you didn't plan on using xbox live, or do not have a broadband connection in your house in the first place. Consequently, the cost of entry is lower on the 360, if you do not plan on using the harddrive, a high def connection, or wireless controllers. In other words, if you are on a budget or a lower income bracket, at least a cost-effective solution exists for the MS customer, whereas the lower income PS customer will most likely have to buy on credit or consider the lower cost alternatives. Value titles are also available now, which might make getting a core package, another controller, and a game or two more attractive than the barebones ps3 console.

All things being equal on the high-end however, yes, they are priced comparably.

I agree. At least the 360 gives you the opportunity to not buy into one of the new DVD formats, which is what I want right now. So a 360 premium system for $299 is better for me then a $599 PS3 with some extra features I would probably not use.

 

[vinnyv07]

But if you really wanted to, you could buy the core system if you didn't plan on using xbox live, or do not have a broadband connection in your house in the first place. Consequently, the cost of entry is lower on the 360, if you do not plan on using the harddrive, a high def connection, or wireless controllers. In other words, if you are on a budget or a lower income bracket, at least a cost-effective solution exists for the MS customer, whereas the lower income PS customer will most likely have to buy on credit or consider the lower cost alternatives. Value titles are also available now, which might make getting a core package, another controller, and a game or two more attractive than the barebones ps3 console.
All things being equal on the high-end however, yes, they are priced comparably.

You are correct...because I am using my 360 without a hard drive...I just have a memory card that was given to me by someone who bought a HD. The 360 does have a built in connection for internet so you can go the cheap way and run the wire if you wanted to. Wireless controllers are great....everyone should have them. I bought mine a Circuit City last week for $39.99....10 bucks less than most of the stores. I only bought one and I am using it with two AA batteries instead of buying the charger at the moment. When money is tight there are ways to get started without spending a bundle. It does really pay though to get the higher priced bundles for both machines since what is given to you is worth the extra 100 bucks.