Lets see, three studios are supporting only HD-DVD with two manufactures bringing out HD-DVD players and 5 studios supporting only BD with 9 manufacturers producing BD players. Seems the balance is still to the BD studios.
First - Studios: Warner is the big heavy weight, currently "sort of" neutral. Remember that Warner is second only to Toshiba in the development & royalty rights to DVD. They have a vested interest in keeping the DVD revenue stream going with HD DVD. Warner has been holding back some releases and "short changing" the BD version of must dual releases - because a year after launch,
BD still isn't ready for prime time (no Pip or internet interactivity, inconsistent, voluntary support for DD+ & TrueHD audio). On of BD's biggest backers - Fox - hasn't released anything for almost 6 months because a year after launch,
BD still isn't ready for prime time (no BD+). Should financially challenged Lions Gate get picked off to join HD DVD and Warner goes HD exclusive, the studio support suddenly swings 5 to 3
in favor of HD DVD.
Secondly, about those "9 manufacturers producing BD players" - maybe on paper, but not in practice. I don't have any source to back this up, but my estimate is 3 manufacturers account for 90% of standalone BD players - Sony, Panasonic & Samsung. Samsung is already neutral, coming out with a combo player, publicly on record has saying they will make a HD DVD only player if they see the market demand. LG has already gone combo player only. Whatever happened to Phillips, one of the main BDA members? They introduced a high priced 1st gen player that was slow & clunky and had bare bones audio, didn't sell squat, and hasn't been heard of since. Oh yeah, but we have that $2,000 Denon player announced.
Sony lined up all those CE companies ducks in a row with a promise: "
Look, here's how it's going down: We introduce the PS3 with a BD drive, instantly sell millions, and squash HD DVD in the still minuscule HD market. With no High def competition, you guys come with players priced however high you want, and you'll recoup all those millions of lost profits when %$#@! Toshiba licensed DVD to the %$#@! Chinese".
Well, a funny thing happened along the way to the bank - the PS3 stumbled thanks to high price and something called a Wii, HD DVD still has 35% of the minuscule HD disc market, and Sony is the low priced leader for BD players, undercutting even the lowly Koreans. I think there's some PO'd CE companies, and now assured the format war will be a stalemate for at least the next 18 months, you'll start seeing defections any day.
