It is actually the opposite based exclusively on the matter of law.
During the last appeal, TiVo only needed to prove by preponderance of evidence, a lower burden of proof, even so, the appeals court overturned half of the verdicts which were embraced by Judge Folsom, in part because as the appeals court said two of the claim constructions by Judge Folsom were too broad and the appeals court narrowed them down, as a result the hardware claims verdict were reversed. But since the software verdict stood, the final judgment and the permanent injunction were upheld because only one of the verdicts was enough. What that meant however was Judge Folsom did make several mistakes, according to the appeals court.
During this appeal, TiVo needs to prove by clear and convincing evidence, a higher burden of proof. If during the last round under a lower burden of proof, appeals court overturned the hardware claims verdict, despite Judge Folsom’s blessing, it is reasonable to say under the higher burden of proof this time around, the appeals court may also overturn the Judge Folsom’s recent decision, and yes E* only needs one thing to do that, that is to convince the appeals court Judge Folsom made an error for not considering the issue of "doubt."
However from the standpoint of public perception, I agree with you, no matter what the law is, most people only live on the impression based on the court decisions. For example, one can certainly drive through the impression that the appeals court agreed with Judge Folsom 100% because they upheld his rulings last time, even though in reality the appeals court only agreed with him 50%, disagreed with him on the other 50%, this much was actually admitted by Judge Folsom during the 2/17/09 hearing. But back then only 50% was needed for TiVo to win.
I also agree with you that if the appeals court refuses to stay the order pending appeal, in all practicality it is over for E*. Even if E* ultimately wins on appeal, the current order will likely force E* to settle as it maybe the only realistic option.
So watch for the appeals court's decision on E*'s motion to stay, after TiVo's response by 6/10.