...as Dish/Sats will probably lose...
You may be pleasantly surprised. The reason I say so is because just as thorough as you are on the history of the DVR business, I have been thorough on the TiVo v. E* case.
The old injunction did not specify whether E* may design around or not, but the current injunction clearly allows design around, as long as E* informs the court and obtains approval first. The "inform and approval" provision is new in this current injunction.
In the worst case E* would only be in contempt of the old injunction, I have explained why E* was not in contempt but let's just use the worst case scenario.
Currently E* cannot be find in violation of the current injunction because not only the injunction is stayed, but E* is following it to the T by informing the court several times they are working on new design around options, in fact three options, with all the technical details and non-infringement expert opinions and legal opinions all submitted to the court already, no court can find E* in contempt of the current injunction.
So the worst case E* pays the $300M additional damages, followed by a long process of trying to determine if the new design around options can be approved by the court. By the time it is done, there will probably be no such old DVRs left in the field.
Again, since E* is following the current injunction to the T, the court cannot find E* in violation nor can the court order the DVRs disabled. Under the current injunction the only way the court can force a disablement is if E* decides to sit there do absolutely nothing to those DVRs.
I continue to hold that no one approached TiVo for a buyout, TiVo filed that "change of control" rule so the heads of TiVo can be covered in the event of a court reversal. TiVo is preparing for the worst, just like E*. The only difference is, in the worst case, TiVo's heads will be well covered but TiVo's investors and subs will be screwed. In the worst case, E* will continue to fight in the court, the investors may see some set back in the short term, but the customers will not even notice anything.