The OFFICIAL DISH / HBO Thread

[NYDutch]

Thanks for the links... Did I miss it in reading through admittedly fairly quickly? There seemed to be an awful lot of ongoing satellite costs and overhead missing from those figures that don't apply to streaming. For instance, the assumption seemed to be that STB/dish installations are one time events with no allowances for the costs of ongoing field support and the associated administrative overhead that involves, including updates and churn costs. And those are costs that likely have a negative ROI unless you've seen numbers showing truck rolls are a profit center. I also didn't notice any ongoing costing included for sat subscriber VOD distribution that would have about the same per GB usage costs as other streaming.

And I have yet to see a good explanation of why a company like AT&T would encourage their sat and other TV subscribers to move to streaming if the per subscriber profit is less than sat or cable/fiber. We must be missing something in the calculations...

 

[navychop]

Or the Deathstar, and others, figure online means greater access for a large majority of people and will therefore be more appealing.

I find Dish Anywhere to be a wonderful answer to that idea.


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[CyberSpock]

Or the Deathstar, and others, figure online means greater access for a large majority of people and will therefore be more appealing.

I find Dish Anywhere to be a wonderful answer to that idea.


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I love that they made this work. I was watching one of my OTA locals while I was in Japan. Nice since there was not one English speaking Channel in Tokyo.

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[long_time_DNC]

IMHO, unless AT&T/HBO suffers huge financial issues (beyond what they've presently incurred), I seriously doubt that that we'll ever see HBO/Cinemax back on Dish. As long as AT&T wants X number of sub dollars no matter what from Dish, Charlie will just let them stew. Why? Because it's been 7 months - the longest blackout I've ever seen on Dish (someone may remember a longer one, but I can't recall one longer than this) - and with the title being changed on the 301 placeholder referring people to an app, I just don't see this ending anytime soon. The churn that has already occurred with people leaving Dish because of the loss of HBO/Cinemax likely hit its peak with the GOT'ers and other series' viewers. Whatever else they want (like myself), I've already purchased on BD long before it hit HBO, so the churn rate for Dish in Q2 should be leveling-off.

Naturally, this is all speculation and opinion, but I think it's pretty solid, based on what I've seen over nearly 20 years I've been with Dish...

 

[ncted]

Thanks for the links... Did I miss it in reading through admittedly fairly quickly? There seemed to be an awful lot of ongoing satellite costs and overhead missing from those figures that don't apply to streaming. For instance, the assumption seemed to be that STB/dish installations are one time events with no allowances for the costs of ongoing field support and the associated administrative overhead that involves, including updates and churn costs. And those are costs that likely have a negative ROI unless you've seen numbers showing truck rolls are a profit center. I also didn't notice any ongoing costing included for sat subscriber VOD distribution that would have about the same per GB usage costs as other streaming.

And I have yet to see a good explanation of why a company like AT&T would encourage their sat and other TV subscribers to move to streaming if the per subscriber profit is less than sat or cable/fiber. We must be missing something in the calculations...

I think the general consensus is they think, probably incorrectly IMHO, that they can glean much more about streaming users behaviors than they can traditional linear users, which will somehow equal better ad targeting and therefore more ad revenue. This is the same or similar to the rationale typically attributed to why Google is doing YTTV: more money from ads. I am not a fan of this idea, mostly as I worked in online media which made its money from advertising for 12 years, and I have little trust in anything these ad platforms say they can do, let alone the humans who interpret the data or train the AIs responsible for learning a specific person's behavior. This is just one of many reasons I am not a fan of advertising in general, and targeted ads in particular.

 

[zippyfrog]

As long as AT&T wants X number of sub dollars no matter what from Dish, Charlie will just let them stew. Why? Because it's been 7 months - the longest blackout I've ever seen on Dish (someone may remember a longer one, but I can't recall one longer than this) - and with the title being changed on the 301 placeholder referring people to an app, I just don't see this ending anytime soon.

Exactly. The only one that is a big name that has gone this long is Univision - I think that was 9ish months. We had a local channel dropped for about 2 years, but that was a niche channel. Not including channels that haven't come back (like SNY or MSG). I don't see Dish bringing them back. I would even go as far to say that the Everything Pack isn't for long in it's current form. The fact that the Everything Pack has had credits for not having HBO/Cinemax all along makes me think that if it isn't back next time prices increase, it becomes a grandfathered pack or the price drop with no HBO/Cinemax becomes the advertised price.

 

[navychop]

So if they get good at profiling the customer, when they determine that customer is elderly, and not much of a consumer outside of health care and food, will they restrict access to certain programs, since that customer isn’t “paying for it” by being a voracious consumer?

Maybe the Amish are right.


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[JSheridan]

Our local FOX affiliate has been off for 2 months.

 

[ncted]

So if they get good at profiling the customer, when they determine that customer is elderly, and not much of a consumer outside of health care and food, will they restrict access to certain programs, since that customer isn’t “paying for it” by being a voracious consumer?

Maybe the Amish are right.


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They already know they are elderly, so they are going to get reverse mortgage ads (or whatever) all the time. WIth streaming, they think they are going to be able to tell the advertiser more details which will make the reverse mortgage advertiser pay more since the information will let them tailor the ad in such a way to make the target more likely to buy the product. This is the hand waving and "magic happens" step that I have serious doubts about. Unless the ad is "buy our reverse mortgage or we'll kill your kids because we know who they are," I am not sure what they think they are going to do to motivate people to do things they aren't interested in doing already, that traditional ads wouldn't already do.

 

[NYDutch]

I think the general consensus is they think, probably incorrectly IMHO, that they can glean much more about streaming users behaviors than they can traditional linear users, which will somehow equal better ad targeting and therefore more ad revenue. This is the same or similar to the rationale typically attributed to why Google is doing YTTV: more money from ads. I am not a fan of this idea, mostly as I worked in online media which made its money from advertising for 12 years, and I have little trust in anything these ad platforms say they can do, let alone the humans who interpret the data or train the AIs responsible for learning a specific person's behavior. This is just one of many reasons I am not a fan of advertising in general, and targeted ads in particular.

Just curious, but where would all the programming come from if it's not advertiser supported? Who would pay the bills? Targeted advertising has been around in some form since before TV existed, so I doubt it's going away any time soon. Ad supported free streaming services like Pluto, for instance, seem to do pretty well serving millions of subscribers.

 

[bookworm370]

While this is a very stimulating discussion, I think what AT&T didn't count on was Charlie's H__L No response. I'm sure people missed HBO and CiniWhat? For about maybe two months? But now that it's been almost 1/2 a year, honestly what I don't see I don't care about and even if Dish comes to agreement, I haven't missed HBO and I seriously doubt I'd add it back.

So in playing hardball, AT&T just slit a lot of their own throats on lost revenue from any Dish customers that have now become immune.
I'm seriously considering going and removing HBO and CineMax channels from my Favorite list and I won't even see them in the guide.

If they come back big deal. It would be a big deal if Dish automatically starts to charge you for HBO again. In which case it's probably just easier to just go into the online menus and drop the HBO pack from your account. That way, you get to get a come back 'deal' when/if this is all sorted out.

My humble opinion.

 

[joewhite57]

Just curious, but where would all the programming come from if it's not advertiser supported? Who would pay the bills? Targeted advertising has been around in some form since before TV existed, so I doubt it's going away any time soon. Ad supported free streaming services like Pluto, for instance, seem to do pretty well serving millions of subscribers. I’m

 

[joewhite57]

I didn’t think I had posted. I had written 2 responses and thought I had deleted both. Count to ten.

 

[navychop]

Don’t forget in program product placement. And I PAY for TV service. Didn’t cable start with the idea of no ads, pay cableco, or ads, OTA? Didn’t last. They tried burning the candle at both ends, changing the rules of the game so they can profit more. Paying certain producers and directors so much they think they’re gods and those women WANTED to have sex with them no matter the age difference, because they were so wonderful.

And the actors and actresses got in the act seemingly with no limit.

So our best response is to DVR and skip ads, and listen to some pompous ass- err, actor, tell us we’re stealing if we don’t watch commercials.

I don’t stream much because of ads. And if TV goes back to forced ads, I’ve got optical media and libraries to fill my entertainment needs.

You think TV might try to do to libraries what bus companies did to street cars?


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[NYDutch]

Cable TV started in the late 40's and 50's as large community OTA antenna systems (CATV) that were distributed so residents could get better reception in poor reception areas. The community antenna systems were often located some distance away on a hill or mountain top where clear reception was possible. The programming was the standard OTA network ad supported offerings.

https://www.calcable.org/learn/history-of-cable/

 

[navychop]

Started.


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[pattykay]

If they come back big deal. It would be a big deal if Dish automatically starts to charge you for HBO again. In which case it's probably just easier to just go into the online menus and drop the HBO pack from your account. That way, you get to get a come back 'deal' when/if this is all sorted out.

My humble opinion.

This is precisely what Dish would not want their subscribers doing. They go to all the trouble to bring HBO and Cinemax back (at whatever subscriber number or percentage needs to be agreed to) only to have most of the (previously) existing subscribers drop the channels as soon as they return. This is why I suggested earlier that if the channels do return to Dish, then Dish should give everyone (or at least everyone who previously subscribed to HBO and/or Cinemax) a free month before they start charging subscribers for these channels again.

If you meant that the existing subscribers should just go ahead and drop the packages from their account now, before the channels return (if they ever do) then that would be even worse for anyone who is hoping that Dish will ever add these channels back. If Dish cannot even convince people (who were already willing to pay for these channels) to keep the packages on their account for free while the channels are gone, then that shows a lack of subscriber demand for these channels, making Dish that much less likely to bring them back.

 

[NYDutch]

Started.

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Yes... Complete with the same OTA ads those with their own antennas saw.

 

[ncted]

Just curious, but where would all the programming come from if it's not advertiser supported? Who would pay the bills? Targeted advertising has been around in some form since before TV existed, so I doubt it's going away any time soon. Ad supported free streaming services like Pluto, for instance, seem to do pretty well serving millions of subscribers.

To clarify, I am fine with passive advertising (that I can choose to ignore). Active advertising which requires me to skip, (try to) click the "x", or forces me to view something I don't want to see is an interruption in my day. Active ads that think they know something about be is borderline invasion of privacy IMHO, especially since the accuracy sucks and I'm as likely to get a baby diaper commercial as I am a catheter commercial -- neither of which apply to me. This is one of the reasons I pay for things like HBO and Netflix -- to have a relatively ad-free experience. It is my payments that pay for the programming. I have Dish, so I am paying for every channel I receive. They also largely have advertising on them. This might keep my costs down, but I also pay for a lot of channels I do not watch, even with the Welcome Pack, so I don't feel particularly bad about skipping ads I encounter during programming breaks.

If other people are ok with getting programming for free thanks to ads, that is their choice. More power to them.

 

[eddie willers]

Targeted advertising has been around in some form since before TV existed, so I doubt it's going away any time soon.

One of my favorite moments in ROME (HBO. See....ON topic) was the fat guy who would give the day's news in the Forum. Usually with a "try Miiller's bread, the best bread east of the Tiber".