Sony sez "The format war is over!"

[BigFella]

I think the battle is going to be fought and won on the shelves of your local Blockbuster. The format that has the most hardware installations out there is going to generate the most rentals. At this - very early - point of the war, that looks like BD because of the PS3...

 

[navychop]

Anybody know the size of the rental market as compared to sales of DVDs? I rarely rent, due to scratched discs (& worse, when it was tape). I've had better luck renting online than from local stores- lower kid factor?

It would behoove the Blu-ray studios to make sure they have more titles and shelf space at the rental stores, that's for sure.

 

[CochiseGuy]

It isn't about the numbers. It is about their reviews. Seems lately Fox has not been putting enough effort into their product. There are no cancellations, a few were moved back a few weeks at best and a few titles that were ready are being released earlier.

Well, the reviews for Fox's Blu-ray releases indicate it's kind of "hit or miss" on quality. But I'm not surprised, that's been my experience with Fox's standard DVD's.
The truth of the matter is that you don't know the releases were "postponed" because of a number poor reviews any more than I know they were "postponed" because of poor sales.

But, as to it being "a few were moved back a few weeks at best and a few titles that were ready are being released earlier.", it was 12 titles, there is no new release date announced for them, and I don't see any titles being released "early". Here's what HighDefDigest.com had to say:

"In the most expansive release shake-up in the short history of both next-gen formats, Fox today announced that it will postpone a large chunk of its previously confirmed Blu-ray March and April title line-up.

The following titles (which include some MGM titles, also distributed by Fox) have all been pulled from the studio's Blu-ray release lineup. (The date to the left is the originally-announced street date):

March 13: Commando, Dances with Wolves, Dodgeball, Ice Age, The Thomas Crown Affair (1999).

April 3: Dude, Where's My Car?, The Fly (1986), Hannibal, The Silence of the Lambs, Tristan & Isolde.

April 17: Turistas

The rest of the Fox's winter Blu-ray release line-up remains unchanged.

Given the number of titles affected, we contacted Fox Home Entertainment directly for comment on the extensive title shake-up. The studio assured that none of these titles have been cancelled, only been pushed back to yet-to-be-determined dates due to a general "release schedule shuffling," said Fox's senior VP of marketing communications Steve Feldstein."

 

[boston area dtv]

I think the battle is going to be fought and won on the shelves of your local Blockbuster. The format that has the most hardware installations out there is going to generate the most rentals. At this - very early - point of the war, that looks like BD because of the PS3...

PS3? That has nothing to do with it. The war will be won by video content.

My father in law purchase a SONY SXRD 60" (mine is only 50" he had to out do me) he asked me about buying a new DVD player.

(Mind you most every day people have no idea there is a format war going on out there...start talking about HD DVD and Blu Ray and I start to see a glazed look come over their eyes.)

Anyway he wants to see pretty movies. Loves his grand children and asked about buying such and such a movie. Here I am, someone who purchased the HD DVD add on for the 360, I have a few HD DVD titles and even now I cant tell him which to buy.

I told him to wait it out.

Bottom line is if Disney and the rest of those back Blu Ray dont produce their product in HD DVD...HD DVD dies.

 

[navychop]

Yep.

 

[jgags6]

What i dont understand is why dont the studios want to produce in both formats. I would think that the studios could give a crap about who wins and right now they could be gaining more profits if they were selling hd dvds as long as blurays.

 

[navychop]

Because they want only ONE format to survive. It is cheaper to produce, stock, track, etc, a single format. They picked their horse.

Some liked that the replication plants had to be new. This would slow counterfeiting.

Some like the larger capacity. This would not only allow more extras, it might allow a second or third movie on the disc. Users could then pay up, get a code and unlock those movies. Max demonstrated capacity (in the lab) is 200 GB on 6 (some say 8) layers.

Some like the regional coding ability, and the watermarking. Some are counting on the BD+ security system to arrive and save the day, DRM wise.

Maybe some saw the computer industry going whole hog Blu-ray and saw the writing on the wall.

Maybe some got a deal from Sony they couldn't refuse.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Yes, they could. But so could the other studios, in both camps. My guess is they're trying to put out the more popular titles to generate interest first. But it does seem that the production capacity for HD-DVD discs is greater than that for Blu-ray discs, and is going mostly unused. Why don't they want to invest a bit and pump out more titles? Of course, there is some risk, but there is no reward without some risk.

Unless Universal plans on taking a bath to shut down HD DVD, they BETTER start treating this thing like a war and flood the market with as many releases as they can. Buck Rogers and both versions of Battlestar Galactica for the sci fi geeks. Disaster movies from the 70's. Anything big and loud. They've got an impressive catalog. I can't believe they just surrendered January and February. NOW is the time to win over the press that will help raise awareness.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Because they want only ONE format to survive. It is cheaper to produce, stock, track, etc, a single format. They picked their horse.

Some liked that the replication plants had to be new. This would slow counterfeiting.

Some like the larger capacity. This would not only allow more extras, it might allow a second or third movie on the disc. Users could then pay up, get a code and unlock those movies. Max demonstrated capacity (in the lab) is 200 GB on 6 (some say 8) layers.

Some like the regional coding ability, and the watermarking. Some are counting on the BD+ security system to arrive and save the day, DRM wise.

Maybe some saw the computer industry going whole hog Blu-ray and saw the writing on the wall.

Maybe some got a deal from Sony they couldn't refuse.

Actually, you have that reversed..... The computer guys, led by Microsoft and HP are pushing HD DVD. The computer guys may be the last great hope for the HD DVD fanboys....

 

[BigFella]

PS3? That has nothing to do with it. The war will be won by video content.

Chicken or the egg... The studios (and their content) will (eventually) go with whichever format is the most popular. "Most popular" will be defined as the most prevalent installed format. Due to the low price point (for HD movie viewers at least), this advantage currently goes to Blu-Ray because of the PS3.

That said, I'm sure soon to be released "universal" players and price cuts on next gen HD-DVD players will swing the market several times - each way - in the not too distant future. My point is, eventually the rental houses will have to make a choice for economic reasons (duplication of stock, shelf space allotment) and that's when one format will be able to declare themselves the "winner" over the other.

 

[navychop]

"...Unless Universal plans on taking a bath to shut down HD DVD, they BETTER start treating this thing like a war and flood the market with as many releases as they can...."

Yeah, I doubt they plan to just throw in the towel. Do DVD sales have some cycle over the year, where certain months are always slow, and peaking in certain other months? Could they be timing releases for a peak month? It's a stretch, I know- it just doesn't seem like they are throwing their max effort out. But then, I guess nobody else is, either.


"...Actually, you have that reversed....."

No. Look at the hardware manufacturers; that's who I was referring to. Capacity and cost/GB count more in that field.


"...That said, I'm sure soon to be released "universal" players and price cuts on next gen HD-DVD players will swing the market several times - each way - in the not too distant future..."

The "universal" player from LG is a poor HD-DVD player. It plays the movie, but very little else. Some of the best HD-DVD features just aren't supported. There likely won't be any decent universal players until both camps agree to allow it. And the followup HD-DVD players seem to be at least as expensive, as they are subsidized less (or not at all). I wouldn't look for any great price reductions this year. The $200 dedicated player is not in sight.

Regarding the rental market, you may be right. They may be a big factor. The question is, will they be leading the market or following it?

 

[BigFella]

"The question is, will they be leading the market or following it?"

Both - I believe they will follow then lead. People will by the hardware first, then rent the movies. The format that is rented the most would obviously win - but of course it's not going to be that simple. There probably won't be one clearly dominant format (i.e. eight out of every ten rentals is ??? format) at first. The rental houses will have to "follow" the market for a while and then make a decision on the rental data from that initial period - just like VHS vs Beta.

They will take the "lead" in the format war when they make the decision one way or the other based on the limited data from that initial period. At that point, it'll be like a ship sinking at sea. Initially, it lists a little in one direction. As it takes on water, it lists faster and faster in that direction and eventually tips over completely.