Poll: End result of format war/competition

[navychop]

In light of recent events, and prior to hearing anything from Warner or CEDIA, what do you think is the likely outcome, as of July 1, 2009? By "grow significantly" I mean double digit sales growth and the premise that high def disc sales will eventually at least equal DVD sales.

HD DVD wins, Blu-ray disappears or becomes a niche player, HD disc sales grow significantly.

HD DVD wins, Blu-ray disappears or becomes a niche player, HD disc sales grow very slowly.

Blu-ray wins, HD DVD disappears or becomes a niche player, HD disc sales grow significantly.

Blu-ray wins, HD DVD disappears or becomes a niche player, HD disc sales grow very slowly.

Both formats survive, HD disc sales grow significantly.

Both formats survive, HD disc sales grow very slowly.

Both formats disappear or stay at less than 2% of the market, downloading or something else "wins."

 

[r.jones1116]

As I 've been saying all along, both will survive. This has been HD-DVD's plan since day one.

 

[navychop]

So far, the pessimists are winning.

 

[tnsprin]

So far, the pessimists are winning.

Given the time frame you set (2 years) I think and voted that both will still be around. But because of the fighting over formats I don't expect fast growth. Similar to the Beta/VHS fight that went a long time. DVD grew fast partly because everyone came together on one format.

 

[navychop]

No persuasive peacemaker this time around.

 

[navychop]

Interesting that the largest single group, almost one fourth of responders, believe in the death of the medium. Is that because of the format war?

 

[berck]

IMHO, primarily yes. I believe that with the idea that HD DVD and Blu ray will both stick around, most people will accept DVD as good enough.

 

[BobMurdoch]

95% of all TVs in use are still analog (1/3 have HDTVs, but that is just the primary TV... the other sets and portables in use are all SDTV).

Also, the price on the hardware and software are still too high for most people. I think these formats are destined to become the next Laserdisc and not the next DVD....

 

[BigTimMN]

I would say that 5% is a low #, for that to be correct, the average household would have to have near 7 TV's. (assuming 1/3 of households have Hd).

Non scientific stud, counting my parents/inlaws and 3 closest neighbors (the only ones I know for fact how many TVs). 5 of the 6 have an HD Set, and 2 of those has 2. and there are 13 SD sets. That would put it at 7/20. I know that is probably a higher than exact # as well but I would have to say that there is closer to 15% HD market share out there now, and would guess that it will be close to 50% penetration by the end of the year.

As for the prices on hardware and videos, both will be dropping over time, just look at the pricedrops on the hardware (down 50% or more for both formats), and I remember paying $250 for my first DVD player, and now they are $30.

The Movies cost more but will come down over time as well. as sales increase, the preproduction costs and production costs per unit drop, when that happens so does the price.

And guess what? theres this pesky little thing called inflation, but when you truly factor it in, technology is WAY cheaper today than it was before.

My parents bought a VCR back in 1980 for $1200, it was $75 a year to be a member to rent videos, and if you wanted to buy a movie is was $50 or more.

Now you complain that a HD-DVD players are too expensive at $300 and you pay $30 for a movie.
Heck you take 2 kids and your wife to a movie and you spend $50+, its still a great deal to buy it for home.

 

[BobMurdoch]

In our household, we've had 1 HDTV, 4 SDTVs, and two portable DVD players with screens that the kids use, one good one from 1999 that I still use, a laptop that plays DVDs only, a PC that plays DVDs only, and a DVD player in my wife's Explorer. Granted, we may not be the average household, but that is 8 screens plus 2 PCs in addition to the one HD set.

When our house is finished being renovated, we will add one more HDTV.

Whether or not the numbers are THAT close, my point is that the vast majority of TVs in use max out at DVD capable levels only. This will inhibit growth.

Don't forget that DVDs added many other things besides picture improvements over VHS. 5.1 surround, direct access (no rewinding), smaller size, plus gads of special features.

There is no major usability leap this time around.

I've got an HD DVD player hooked up through my XBox360, so I'm not trying to scotch the upgrade, but I'm being a realist when I point out that demand is nowhere near where the studios think it is.

 

[Ilya]

As of 7/1/2009? Well, I am pretty sure the war will be over by then. It would cost companies too much to drag it for so long. I don't know which side will win, but my prediction is that, in the end, the war will be decided by some deals made behind the closed doors.

 

[navychop]

If those deals haven't already been made....

But that's why I picked that date. Paramount deal will reputedly be history by then. Player prices should be WAY down. Should be obvious, one way or another, if the media will survive at all, and how, and who.

VMD, anyone? :haha