Well, looks like Comcast is looking to sell off NBCU. Last week, news leaked of a failed deal that would have seen Comcast spin off NBCU to merge with video game giant Electronic Arts. Apparently Comcast CEO Brian Roberts's family would have been the majority owner of this new company -- I guess they were going to convert their Comcast stock into shares of this new EA/NBCU company? -- while EA's current CEO would have headed the newly merged entity.
Comcast (CMCSA) CEO Brian Roberts recently proposed spinning off the company's NBCUniversal media unit in order to merge it with videogame giant Electronic Arts (EA), Puck News reports
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I think Comcast is clearly feeling the pressures that I outlined above, which are motivating them to ditch NBCU. And I still think Paramount is the most likely merger partner. But such a deal would be complicated by the need for them to spin off either NBC or CBS, possibly to a third party who would buy it. Warner Bros. Discovery clearly looks like the most obvious buyer if there's anyone out there who would be interested in buying, and could arrange the financing to buy, either NBC or CBS. WBD owns a major studio, lots of major basic cable nets, the leading premium cable net, a major direct-to-consumer SVOD, plus free broadcast nets in some European countries; all they lack is a US broadcast net plus a free ad-supported streaming app that might work in tandem with it (think Fox + Tubi or NBC + the free tier of Peacock).
Here's how I could potentially see this all playing out. Comcast spins off NBCU to merge with Paramount. Current Paramount leadership -- Bakish and Redstone -- leads the newly merged Paramount Universal while either Comcast or the Roberts family has a major ownership stake in the company.
Paramount Universal would keep CBS but would sell NBC, including its sports division/rights and *some* of its news division, to WBD. Since WBD already owns CNN, they have no need for MSNBC, so that network and the parts of the NBC News operations that directly support it would remain with Paramount Universal (who would rebrand MSNBC since it would no longer have any affiliation with NBC and stopped having any connection to Microsoft years ago). WBD would integrate NBC News (home of NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, Meet the Press, Today, and Dateline) with CNN. Paramount Universal would integrate the rebranded MSNBC with CBS News.
WBD would probably shift most, if not all, live sports from NBC to their TBS and TNT cable nets (just as Disney reserves most live sports for ESPN rather than ABC). The live sports that NBCU currently airs on cable nets like USA or streams on Peacock would also be sold to WBD, where it would appear on their TBS and TNT. (But NBCU cable nets like USA, SyFy, Bravo, etc. would still be part of Paramount Universal, not WBD.) In time, the entirety of the WBD sports line-up would live stream on HBO Max in addition to, or instead of, airing on their cable nets TBS and TNT. Some of that might happen immediately.
NBC shows would stream next-day on HBO Max and, over time, more and more of the series carried on NBC would be owned and produced by Warner rather than Paramount Universal. As a condition of the deal, perhaps Paramount Universal would share next-day streaming access to current season shows from NBC. Just as you can currently watch NBC shows next-day on either Hulu or Peacock, maybe for the first couple years after the deal closes, you could watch NBC shows next-day on either Paramount+ or HBO Max. But then, after a certain amount of time, that arrangement would sunset and HBO Max would be the exclusive place to stream NBC shows next-day.
Paramount+ would get a huge content boost, gaining all the content that Peacock currently has, except for its live sports and the news content that airs on NBC (e.g. Today, Meet the Press, Dateline), all of which would become exclusive to HBO Max. So all those new and old Universal movies, plus Peacock Originals, plus past seasons of NBCU-produced TV series (e.g. The Office, 30 Rock, etc.) would find a new exclusive home on Paramount+. Peacock would be shut down but, as part of the deal, Paramount+ would likely get some kind of preferred distribution arrangement with the newly formed Comcast/Charter joint venture streaming platform (e.g. all Comcast and Charter broadband customers get the base tier of Paramount+ at no extra cost bundled in as part of their broadband plan, with Paramount+ tightly tied into their streaming OS). We'd probably also see Paramount+ at this point cease to be sold as an add-on option inside competing apps such as Prime Video or Apple TV.
The two sides -- WBD and Paramount Universal -- would have to figure out what to do with NBC's late night shows. My guess is that the entirety of The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon and The Late Show with Seth Myers would be sold to WBD as part of the deal to buy NBC. There's not a ton of value to past seasons of those shows; they're mainly watched same-day or next-day or at least not too long after they air.
But Saturday Night Live is a little different. Maybe Paramount Universal would continue to produce and own it but be tied to a long-term commitment (e.g. 10 years) to license it exclusively for broadcast on WBD's NBC, with current season streaming right's exclusive to WBD too (except for the first couple years pursuant to the next-day sharing arrangement with Paramount+ outlined above). However, all past seasons of SNL would stream exclusively on Paramount+. Or, under a second scenario, perhaps the entirety of SNL would be sold to WBD too, so it would be the only place for both current and past seasons of the show. Or, under a third scenario, maybe SNL wouldn't be included at all as part of the deal, meaning that it would completely remain with Paramount Universal and switch networks from NBC to CBS. The deals that Lorne Michaels has in place with NBCUniversal might complicate matters so much that it would be impossible to sever SNL to any degree from Paramount Universal.
Lastly, I think we'll see WBD (regardless of any possible deal to acquire NBC) launch a completely free ad-supported app, i.e. their answer to Paramount's Pluto TV and Fox's Tubi. If they owned NBC, though, we would probably see its content gradually be shared with that free app in order to increase viewership and maximize ad revenue.