Ok, New Year's prediction time and what "E" gonna do

[waltinvt]

I think it's time to see the writting on the wall.

Dish has been basically stalling and shuffleing over the past few weeks, replying with ambigious emails, etc in an effort to quell the storm before their CES "unvailing", which, in my opinion, is going to reveal (among other things) that a lot of HD is NOT really going to be HD at all.

They'll take the "quantity over quality" road because there's no business reason not to. If they can beat "D" with more channels, then their PQ only has to be as good or slightly better than "D"s to stay ahead of them.

An indication that this may have been their plan for a while is the fact that their recent HD receivers are not really as "OTA friendly" as they could be. Single OTA tuner; not as good at signal reception and multipath rejection as other HD tuners; limited HD PVR functions for OTA without Dish locals.

Dish knew a decent network OTA digital signal was going to be better than what they wanted to offer, so they needed some incentive for viewers to still purchace the Dish locals.

I believe the only way we're ever going to have real HD with the intended quality is if the individule channels, networks and advertisers insist on it. Hopfully enough of them realize that viewers WILL recognize the difference and will base their viewing habits accordingly.

Competition dictates everything in the world of TV and we're seeing a good example of the negative effects of removing it. "E" buys Voom. "D" doesn't carry Voom. "E" can then do what it wants with Voom. I can just imagine where we'd be if "D" & "E" had merged. Actually from the looks of things lately, I'm not so sure they didn't.

 

[SimpleSimon]

Well stated. :up

 

[waltinvt]

Well stated. :up

Thanks Simon.
I'm amazed, almost 200 views and you're the only reply. I hope I didn't give anyone a complex with that "misreading" comment in the other thread.

 

[toto]

Is that why they announced that customers again would have a choice of locals off satellite or OTA? Is that why they came out with the Dish 1000? Is that why they are talking about a family package? Is that why they picked up 129 and 118 locations? I think their clues, to us, tend to lead me to the conclusion that they are laying a path to HD. Everyone in the industry knows this is the HD way or the highway time. I think we are underestimating the folks at Dish.

 

[waltinvt]

Is that why they announced that customers again would have a choice of locals off satellite or OTA? Is that why they came out with the Dish 1000? Is that why they are talking about a family package? Is that why they picked up 129 and 118 locations? I think their clues, to us, tend to lead me to the conclusion that they are laying a path to HD. Everyone in the industry knows this is the HD way or the highway time. I think we are underestimating the folks at Dish.

Maybe but I doubt it. You're almost right about it being "HD way or the highway" except change "HD" to read "digital". It boils down to what the defination of HD ends up being. Right now there IS a war going on to redefine HD - at least for a while.

Stupid is as stupid does (or something like that). "E" learned from "D" that they could cut the quality of HD in half and get away with it. Customers put up with it there just like they'll likely put up with it here.

Eventually the quality of HD will improve but I think they've realized their mistake of putting the whole enchalada out there at once and are now trying to back-track.

It's like the audio industry back in the late 50s. They had the ability to produce stereo (even quad / matrex type sound) but marketed mono Hi-Fi first, followed by stereo, then quad but quad never really took off and the market turned to various sould quality enhancments like Dolby and eventually digital over analog and now we have various flavors of surround sound going to 25 speakers.

My guess is they're thinking by reducing the quality of HD now (before too many more got used to it), they can get more "SD" channels replaced quicker with a better "ED" picture and "convert" more of the customer base quicker. Once they get the masses into a form of improved digital picture quality, then they'll start working the quality back up to the original "HD" we first saw.

 

[JamesJ]

what is E* going to do? well I see it this way I think this year we are going to see Dish network make a push for Mpeg4. I think we will see Dish network make some great announcements on the HD front. And I think we will see the return of Full rez. Hd on Dish network with the switch over to Mpeg4. I believe that as Directv is the clear leader in sports Dish network will Be the "clear" Hd Leader (full rez) and Hd leader in channels as well. hope everyone has a great new years. And walt very well stated in your O.P.

 

[Mr.Pinkeye]

I think Dish is going to roll out HD locals only on MPEG4, releasing ESPN2 and the new vooms as MPEG2. This way they can roll out the new receivers fairly slowly.

I think they are going to move voom and locals from 61.5 to a different satellite. They have to move the locals anyway for the one-dish rule (no way would they move all the locals to a side dish, at least for major DMAs like New York ,#1, and Boston, #5.) Where they will move them, I don't know, but I'm sure they would aim for a superdish/dish-1000 type solution.

And I think that only after a significant portion of the country has MPEG4 receivers will Charlie think about putting any Nat'l HD networks in that format.

Of course, this could all be wishful thinking. :

 

[jmcgee_jr]

I think...Ive got a headache now. I dont have a clue..I do know what I want though. HD DAMMIT. Having RAW HD OTA and then moving to a area that has JACK SHYTE for OTA is like having broadband for years thren moving back to a area that only has 26.4 dialup.

 

[Reefer123]

This isn't radio. If they downrez now it will remain the same or worsen from here on out. They came out with all new compression techniques to obtain more bandwidth, and what happens, they add more and more and more SD channels until the image is complete crap.

If we take it now just make sure you are ok with a bunch of ED channels as very very few will be in true HD if any.

Its time to take a stand now. Personally I am the point of "what have you done for me lately?". If they announce new HD channels at CES and stay with this resolution/bitrate they are showing now, I will drop all the voom and HD Pak until they fix it, if ever. Until then I will just keep my fingers crossed that OTA HD doesn't go down the toilet either.

 

[BigFella]

This isn't radio. If they downrez now it the same or worsens from here on out. They came out with all new compression techniques to obtain more bandwidth, and what happens, they add more and more and more SD channels until the image is complete crap.
If we take it now just make sure you are ok with a bunch of ED channels as very very few will be in true HD if any.
Its time to take a stand now. Personally I am the point of "what have you done for me lately?". If they announce new HD channels at CES and stay with this crap they are showing now I will drop all the voom and HD Pak until they fix it.

Aside from getting your HD OTA (if you can) where would you go to get full HD quality? Direct set the current standard and Dish will be hard pressed to match it(given the current bandwidth constraints), let alone exceed it. Eventually either Direct or Dish will put out full HD on all of their channels when the technology permits, but that's the next step. For now, the market dictates quantity over quality.
I remember a time not too long ago (I've been with Dish since '98) that cable's main advantage over satellite was that cable could provide locals - since "there was no way satellite would ever have the capacity to carry all of the locals across the country"... Enter spot beam technology. Patience grasshopper...

 

[Reefer123]

Also with all those local channels came terrible PQ to go along with it. Most of E* SD is borderline unwatchable IMO. Everything looks fuzzy. No if you are telling me that they are lowering the HD PQ for now and then down the road they will all of the sudden decide HEY Lets crank these out the way they are supposed to, don't see it sorry. Unfortunately in the TV biz it seems quantity always will be quality. Heck just look at some of the local stations now. Some have as many as 3 substations! I really do not need a 24/7 weather doppler, but it is there sucking up bandwidth.

 

[SimpleSimon]

I think Dish is going to roll out HD locals only on MPEG4, releasing ESPN2 and the new vooms as MPEG2. This way they can roll out the new receivers fairly slowly.

I agree.

I think they are going to move voom and locals from 61.5 to a different satellite.

I DISagree. R-1 is a monster spotbeam bird that will be VERY useful for HD LiL. V* will stay there because 129 doesn't hit the east coast.

They have to move the locals anyway for the one-dish rule (no way would they move all the locals to a side dish, at least for major DMAs like New York ,#1, and Boston, #5.) Where they will move them, I don't know, but I'm sure they would aim for a superdish/dish-1000 type solution.

Don't forget that E-10 s launching very soon. It's also a monster spotbeam bird.

And I think that only after a significant portion of the country has MPEG4 receivers will Charlie think about putting any Nat'l HD networks in that format.

I agree.

 

[nickg420]

I just have 4 words that will sum all predictions up!!!!

Who the hell knows?????

Most of us are only guessing at best...... and think about it.. when has Dish ever done anything the right way from the start???

Honestly Charlie needs to mean what he says and say what he means!!

Don't pee down my back and tell me it's raining....if Charlie is going to take the HD-Lite road he should just tell us, Don't make us think MPEG-4 is the next big thing and it will stop world hunger and then we find out Charlie only used it to feed two people a turkey sandwich on thanksgiving....That's not really changing to much is it?? Like I said E* should let their ideas and plans be heard, if your consumers don't drive what drives your company to succeed, all in all you are truly wasting your time.

I just believe what will be will be, and as much as we all talk about what we all are going to do if we don't get full rez HD.....in the end like we have done so, so many times before,... we will bend over and politely ask Charlie to kiss us on the neck as he does that!!

 

[T2k]

Originally Posted by Mr.Pinkeye
I think Dish is going to roll out HD locals only on MPEG4, releasing ESPN2 and the new vooms as MPEG2. This way they can roll out the new receivers fairly slowly.

I agree.

Me too. It's the only meaningful way - I too doubt that rumour about Dish will switch Vooms to MPEG4 by March...

 

[Juan]

e* will raise rates!!!

 

[Mr.Pinkeye]

I DISagree. R-1 is a monster spotbeam bird that will be VERY useful for HD LiL. V* will stay there because 129 doesn't hit the east coast.
Don't forget that E-10 s launching very soon. It's also a monster spotbeam bird.
I agree.

Simon,

That is very likely. My prediction was based on something I had read on the *other* forum. A feller in MA was told he could not get the 61.5 dish installed or Voom until February. It got me thinking that they may be planning on putting those on the new E-10 since they are supposedly making Voom part of the basic HD package. Nobody replied to his post with same issue, so far.

Do they/can they move satellites once they are put in space? (E-10 will test at 138.5) Oops, my newbie is showing....

It could be they still use R-1 for locals and HDlocals in smaller northeast markets, like Utica and Bangor, which I think would stink for them.

Like I said, probably just wishful thinking on my part, especially the moving Voom idea. (My wife will not put up with a 2nd dish on the house. )

 

[T2k]

Simon,
Do they/can they move satellites once they are put in space? (E-10 will test at 138.5) Oops, my newbie is showing....

Yes, they can.

 

[SimpleSimon]

Like I said, probably just wishful thinking on my part, especially the moving Voom idea. (My wife will not put up with a 2nd dish on the house. )

Show her these.

 

[Mr.Pinkeye]

Show her these.

It's so crazy, it just might work! Seriously, I think that's her nightmare!

 

[SimpleSimon]

It's so crazy, it just might work! Seriously, I think that's her nightmare!

I've got a half-dozen or so dishes in the garage I could add to the pic of my place (the one on the left) if it would help.