Netflix stock plunges on brutal 3Q, somber outlook

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Netflix jolted its shareholders again with a third-quarter financial report that portrayed a company in crisis.

The video subscription service's latest blooper reel, released Monday, included an even larger customer exodus than the company had foreseen after announcing an unpopular price increase in July. What's worse, the report contained a forecast calling for more defections during the next few months.

The backlash will deprive Netflix Inc. of some of the revenue that management had been counting on to finance the company's expansion plans while it pays higher fees for Internet video streaming rights. The result: Netflix expects to post losses next year when it starts selling its steaming service in Britain and Ireland. The company didn't offer further specifics besides saying it won't go into any other overseas markets until it's making money again.

None of the developments pleased Wall Street as Netflix lost more than a quarter of its value after the bad news came out. If that sharp decline holds in Tuesday's trading, it will mark the first time Netflix's stock price has fallen below $100 in nearly 14 months.

Netflix shares shed $32.01, or nearly 27 percent, to $86.83 in Monday's extended trading.

It's the latest setback for a former stock market darling whose shares topped $300 just 4- 1/2 months ago. Netflix's market value had already plunged by about 60 percent, or nearly $9 billion, before Monday's late sell-off.

Netflix lost its luster among consumers and investors by raising prices as much as 60 percent in the U.S. and bungling an attempt to spin off its DVD-by-mail rental service.

Raising the prices had to be done, according to Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. He said, however, that Netflix should have taken more time to explain to subscribers that the company needed the money to pay movie and television studios for rights to stream more video over high-speed Internet connections.

"We became a symbol of the evil, greedy corporation," Hastings said in a Monday interview with The Associated Press. "Then we faced a reputational hit that created significantly more cancellations than we anticipated."

The company, which is based in Los Gatos, ended September with 23.8 million U.S. subscribers, down about 800,000 from June. Netflix had predicted it would lose about 600,000 U.S. subscribers in a forecast released last month.

Management expects to gain U.S. subscribers in the current quarter, although Netflix didn't set a specific target. But a substantial number of Netflix's customers are expected to choose between renting DVDs through the mail, or streaming Internet video, instead of paying for both services.

The biggest hit is expected on the DVD side, a service that Netflix has been de-emphasizing to save money on mailing costs as its spends more to license movies and TV shows for its Internet video library. The company expects its DVD subscribers to fall from 13.9 million as of Sept. 30 to as low as 10.3 million at the end of December.

Hastings said he expects Netflix's DVD subscriptions to steadily decline, much like what has happened to AOL Inc.'s dial-up Internet connection service during the past decade as high-speed alternatives became more affordable.

Netflix's streaming subscriptions in the U.S. may rise by as much as 100,000 subscribers in the quarter, according to the company's projections.

The company's outlook looks even grimmer compared with how rapidly Netflix had been growing. From the end of 2009 through June of this year, Netflix had gained 12.3 million U.S. subscribers -- adding an average of 2 million customers every three months.

From a financial perspective, Netflix did better than analysts expected in the July-September period.

The company earned $62.5 million, or $1.16, per share, in the third quarter. That compared to income of $38 million, or 70 cents per share, at the same time last year.

The performance topped the average earnings estimate of 96 cents per share among analysts polled by FactSet.

Netflix's revenue climbed 49 percent from the same time last year to nearly $822 million -- about $9 million above analyst estimates.

Netflix's downfall leaves Hastings -- the only CEO the company has ever had -- in a precarious position.

Once regarded as one of the savviest leaders in technology and entertainment, Hastings has turned into a punching bag for frustrated Netflix customers and shareholders. Many of them are still befuddled by his recent decision making.

After Netflix's higher prices kicked in on Sept. 1, Hastings amplified the outrage by outlining a plan to toss the DVD rental business onto a separate website called Qwikster. The split from the Internet streaming service got panned so badly that Hastings reversed course in less than three weeks.

"I am not a quitter," Hasting said Monday after the AP asked him if would heed some investor calls for him to resign. "We made some mistakes, but I think our 10-year track record is extremely positive. We are going to focus on making this a great global streaming business. I am very excited about that."
 
A year ago, Netflix gave away free subscriptions for 30 day free trial to grow subscribers. It was a huge success. They need to do that again.

The irony in all this is that the entire mass exodus of subscribers was based on emotional impact of a price increase exacerbated by bad press. Those who followed their emotions cancelled only to move to a competitive service that offers less quality, fewer titles, longer wait times, and priced even higher. There is no real comparing to AOL because AOL was not a technological leader, it fell behind and that is what killed it's business. Today, Netflix remains the best of all the services, if you use it, it remains the lowest cost per title as well. What's killing Netflix is bad press. What's killing the stock is the idea that the company isn't growing as fast as analysts want it to grow. While the stock price is based on anticipated future earnings growth estimates, the fact of a rapidly falling growth estimate in one quarter can only mean that with continued slower growth the estimates will equate to a very positive growth over previous quarter the next report. Then the stock bounces back fast again.

Performance for the past month between my Netflix and my Blockbuster one out at a time service has been:

Netflix has delivered 8 BluRay disks for $8

Blockbuster has delivered 3 DVD disks for $10 and one of those was damaged. All my BluRay selections are passed over in my que. They just do not have the quantity to meet demand.
 
BB definitely has the more limited selection but for many of us it carries with it no marginal cost. That means we have to decide if the increased selection at Netflix is worth the full cost.

in my own case I am getting BB disks as quick as Netflix and I had experienced a run of bad Netflix discs (although this was after 3 years of flawless disks) and all of my BB Dissks are fine. But that is anexdotal I admit.
 

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