Actually, I called DirecTv about the same "what if" scenario, they say my equipment is out of warranty in 90 days. W/O protection plan the obvious, if something breaks; I pay for it and the service call, if needed.
One may consider canceling service but there will be an unpleasant disconnect fee if within the 24 month contract.
Getting back to your question, if a DVR were to break, in most cases a new lease including upgrade cost and extension of contract would apply if outside of 90 day warranty and no protection plan. As was explained to me, not all cases are the same, they deal individually depending on account status.
As I understand it, if a DVR under protection plan were to break, it would be replaced with refurbished unit at no cost and no extension of contract. Also covers the cost of repairs and alignments. I also believe that the shipping costs can be avoided with protection plan.
Did I get it all correctly? That said, I'm still considering protection plan and would like to hear personal pros and cons with or without it. And what is the monthly cost of protection plan.