I don't think this paradigm shift is limited to the book business. to me, it's clear that electronic distribution is slowly but surely destroying traditional print mediums.
newspapers and magazines are thinner and all of them are struggling to survive.
how many will survive to see the 2020 decade?
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I would not disagree -- in some ways the newspapers have themselves to blame, but ultimately the ability to adapt to a new world is critical for success.
Here the local newspaper has seen a total decline; and is pretty much a joke. Whereas, a local news radian channel has done a great job of adapting to new technology. They provide constant updates on Facebook, twitter, and their own website; publish news stories that while usually shorter than the newspaper, are more current, up to date, and rival the paper.
And I will admit, that while I balked at $20/month for the New York Times iPad/web subscription, I would NEVER ever go without it. It is how I read the news on a daily basis.