Minsk1 said:
It is not going to happen. E*, D*, cable companies will do just fine. D* and cable will hold advantage in HD locals, but E* will be a leader in national HD. So all these demise predictions for E* are not doing anything good, especially if you will think again what D* has in their mind about special pricing for HD (remember NFL ST fiasco!)
If my contacts are right along with Dans, Scotts and others D* will be the leader over both cable and E* on the national HD front and if they add what I believe they will not even E* can match it because they can't just snap their fingers and have bandwidth appear even if E* switched everything to MPEG4.
Now again all this remains to be seen but D* can kill E* on both the national and local HD fronts while at least killing cable on the national HD front because even they don't have enough bandwidth unless they move all digital and give all analog customers a D/A converter box for all of their rooms.
Edit...also when I say kill I don't mean these companies can't compete but they won't be able to compete with the above average HD viewer. But again they will compete for other features such as VOD on cable and Comcast having Tivo and any feature one company might have but it will be D* who would have the great bulk of both the medium and high end HD customers and those are the customers who make a company big time money. Also if D* does offer their form of VOD which would work similiar to cables VOD than that would be another advantage that D* has over E*. Now again E* will still be around and make a profit but they will never be more than what they are profit wise until they make a radical change and pump up new satellites to increase bandwidth for both national and HD local channels and please don't say they can do just fine without HD LILs because in the future when the average joe goes HDTV and this is happening today and more so in the future they will demand HD locals via satellite and those average joes can spend more than 80/month. Who do you think the average joe is going to go with when they get their new HDTV set. When they see the massive HD lineup and HD locals that D* has in their Best Buy store and compare that with E* and cable I think they would pick D* for these easy reasons.
E* does not have HD locals via satellite.
D* has HD locals via satellite and are a more noticed brand.
D* has a massive national HD lineup that cable can't match and customer doesn't even look at E* offerings sadly to say.
D* can rent them an HD DVR, HMC and/or just a basic HD box for about the same price as cable.
That will be how this would go and I'll assure you that D* will heavily advertise in Best Buy stores that they offer HD locals via satellite and when they can't find the same concrete info with E* they would stick with the safe bet of D* because again their lineup on national HD is very good and rental hardware plus brand name. In their mind they feel they can get everything they want with D* so why take the chance with E*.