Maybe I've been reading too much Stephen King but I think I know how this format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray is really going to end.
You thought it was over? Well, for those of us who have long been involved in the media business, the story of this format war is worthy of the horror novelist who knows the true art of a scary ending.
Seen Carrie? Or maybe that great Kathy Bates chiller Misery? After two hours of gore and spine chilling terror, King leaves our hero victorious with his nemesis beaten to a bloody pulp or buried six-feet under. They catch their breath. They wipe the sweat from their brow. Then, without any warning and a sudden screech of violins, that dead enemy rises for one last fight. Carrie's bloody hand reaches from the grave. Kathy Bates goes back at it for one more treacherous tussle.
And what does that have to do with Blu-ray and HD-DVD you might ask? The war isn't over. Mark my words. Maybe the Blu-ray camp has won the battle but let's not be lulled into complacency here. The war has only just begun.
The success of Blu-ray is simply too important for us to ignore the changes in our contemporary media landscape and the challenges we truly must now face.
That's because this format war is one unlike any other we've experienced before. No wonder it was relatively short. The window of opportunity was narrowing fast and the fate of the DVD format -- Hollywood's cash cow no less -- was at stake. And that's something everyone -- even Toshiba -- has too much invested in to lose over a claim to the next windfall of media royalty payments.
If Blu-ray won anything it was simply the right for the studios and their hardware partners to now spend many hundreds of millions of dollars more to market the benefits of a higher-definition optical disc format to a consumer who is already more than satisfied with what they already own and more preoccupied with buying their next flat screen and smart phone than anything else.
The success of Blu-ray is simply too important for us to ignore the changes in our contemporary media landscape and the challenges we truly must now face.
For, in fact, our industry just made an extremely bold move. It selected the more expensive, more complex format of the two -- one that requires a significant technical retooling at the replicator and mastering levels as well as the emergence of a scarce and extremely skilled set of software developers in order to succeed.
The expanded storage capability and interactivity potential of Blu-ray is awe-inspiring. It can truly be the physical media of the next decade.
That is if we accept the realities, roll up our sleeves, and bankroll the massive technical and creative overhaul that that this new format now requires.
Remember, we don't have the FCC mandating that consumers must upgrade from standard definition DVDs to Blu-ray. What's more, we have several other dynamics at play in Hollywood.
At the same time as the studios and hardware manufacturers are touting the attributes of this 1080p player, they are setting up their own competition by enhancing the standard DVD's with digital copies as well as inexpensive up-converting DVD players.
Astute press release readers will have noticed that, at the same time as it announced the discontinuation of the HD-DVD format last month, Toshiba declared its commitment to developing its core competencies in two other HD physical media formats -- NAND flash memory and small format hard disc technology -- two upstart technologies that promise to challenge optical as the physical media of choice in the years ahead.
In the Wall Street Journal recently, Toshiba’s chief executive Atsutoshi Nishida expressed his support for the PC as the playback centerpiece of tomorrow's living room as well as a commitment for the digital download of home entertainment.
And, while digital downloads currently show more promise than profitability, it's no surprise that apple, with its Apple-TV and its iTunes business model in place has made no commitment to an optical future.
The following is Charlie's five step formula for Blu-ray success.
* Step one: Studios, work with your replicator. There's a tremendous investment ahead for replicators.
Understanding & Solutions estimates a quarter billion dollars investment will be needed over the next few years in new lines and test equipment. If your replicators are to be able to provide you with proper levels of supply and service you'll need to get your forecasts right, tighten your supply chain, and manage your front end mastering/authoring processes to allow your replication partners to meet your retailers' needs.
* Step two: This product deserves a premium price.
This is the only industry that would invent gold and then decide to move tonnage by discounting prices. In packaging and product features, Blu-ray must convey a value proposition to the consumer that will provide enough profits for your retailers, your shareholders and your supply chain partners.
* Step three: Stir the imagination of the creative community.
This product demands the interest of the next generation Spielbergs and Lucases - the visual storytellers of tomorrow who will embrace the technical wizardry, interactivity, storage capacity, and electronic enabling that the format can provide. Is it a film? Is it a game? Is it a web site? It's all of the above. But without a creative individual who is given the resources to create magic, to invent the next generation of interactive visual entertainment, it's going to be "just enough hunk of playback plastic."
* Step four: Think 3D.
We're on the brink of the next dimension of filmmaking. Jim Cameron's Avatar will break barriers. The NBA has already shot games in 3D. Disney has shown Hannah Montana on screen in three dimensions too. Once that content starts to cascade, Blu-ray sales will accelerate since it will be able to deliver those 3D films into the home provided the consumer electronics manufacturers develop screens capable of delivering the 3D experience to consumers' living rooms.
* Step five: Market, market and market some more.
This is a product nobody wants until they experience it. We're going to have to sell Blu-ray this time around. Or else.
This is not a product that is going to be easy to explain. There are competing technologies out there and on the horizon. Too many media options for the consumer consider this time around.
If Blu-ray is truly to emerge as a mass-market product we'll all need to push ahead as a single force for change. And I believe Blu-ray will enable that change
