Is HD-DVD loosing their footing?

[Spliff]

Companies used to do the same thing when DVD players first started coming to market. You would buy the player and get rebates for 5 free movies. When I worked at Best Buy in 98-99 it was a huge incentive for people to buy the players.

This to me means that HD-DVD player sales are going to go through the roof. Buy Toshiba or HD-DVD tech stock.

 

[vinnyv07]

Well, I have the add-on HD-DVD player for the 360 and I feel that the war is over. There are just too many good titles that are out and coming out for Blu-ray. The writing is on the wall. My next question is....when does MS put out a Blu-ray add-on for the 360? I think they should start working on it.

 

[teamerickson]

I honestly cant even think of 5 HD DVD's that I want.

Why, do you have all of the realeases to date? What about Island Fever 4?

 

[teamerickson]

The thing with movies are.... titles is subjective. What one person may like, another may not. There was a whole thread over at AVS about Box office numbers and their target. Why some movies do better and others flop. Why a title may be a hit at the box ofice and a flop on DVD and vfice versa.

Word!

 

[teachsac]

Word!

I thought Daniel Craig was a pretty good Bond. Surprised me a little, the transfer was very good. BUT... I didn't think the movie was very well done.

S~

 

[Jamey K]

A humble suggestion.....

1. Serenity
2. Batman Begins
3. The Departed
4. Children of Men
5. Superman Returns

Apollo 13

 

[jaybertx]

I know I've been a persistent supporter of HD DVD, if not downright annoyingly so at times.

But, believe it or not my primary objective is to enjoy high def content on my home theater system. If I honestly thought I was missing something significant by not having a BD player, I would get one and be format neutral. Everyone's tastes in movies is different, but in looking over the release schedule through mid-summer, I see only a couple of BD titles I would like to see in high def. POTC 1&2 I would buy; I'd rent The Queen & Volver, as one viewing would be enough. But, I would be very unhappy at not having The Matrix in a high def format not playable on my high def player.

I gotta tell ya man, I've really been pessimistic about HD-DVD lately but your post really has me thinking positively again. It seemed that every time I turned around, every movie that I wanted to buy was BD only. I thought I might have to break down and buy a Sony product (PS3)... Not saying that I won't have to at some point but the longer I can hold off, the better!

 

[CochiseGuy]

Cochise. There are a lot of releases.

However, I have two nephews that LOVE CARS! I have a daughter coming any second now and Im pretty sure Im going to be watching a lot of Disney in the upcoming years. So for me even though I OWN an HD DVD player and have purchased a few movies....my inclination is to wait.

It would be easier for me if HD DVD would win this thing.

However, it seams that BD has a greater all around backing from the studios and from the manufacturers of video players.

Correct me if I am wrong but right now only Toshiba makes HD DVD players while a couple of companies make BD players?

Universal is the only studio backing HD DVD (exclusively) while many more studios are exclusive to BD.

If Im wrong please let me know. but thats my take.

Boston -

Yes, your assumptions are correct - BD has a greater all around backing from the studios and from the manufacturers of video players.. The thing is, those things were in place before either format launched, and certainly before you ever bought you HD DVD player.

I remember the CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Jan. '06. Sony was touting BD demos and the PS3 launch in June, putting hundred's of millions of BD players in consumer's homes. Every major Hollywood studio except Universal was promising to release on BD. Toshiba was the only CE company committing to produce HD DVD players, and only Universal, WB & Paramount were the only studios committing to release titles on HD DVD, with WB & Paramount also committing to release on BD as well. The overwhelming consensus was "Why should HD DVD even bother to launch?

I initially intended to sit this format war out. The odds seemed hopeless for HD DVD but, while I own a Sony HDTV & A/V receiver, I don't appreciate Sony's strong-armed tactics in trying to push their formats down consumers' throats. But then HD DVD came out swinging with nearly flawless execution and outstanding quality, while Sony's first BD releases & Samsung's BD player were . . . well, less than impressive, at best.

It's surprising how strong HD DVD performed in 2006. But what's even more surprising to me is that now everything is FINALLY in place - the PS3 finally launches after several delays & glitches, the BD exclusive studios release a heavy launch schedule to support it, and suddenly HD DVD is "dead"?

It's always been an uphill battle for HD DVD. BUT, BD has hit a couple of snags in its long held strategy.
1- The PS3 is hardly a smashing success. It has dropped to 3rd place in game console sales in North America, and the recent Europe was hardly stellar. The loss in Sony's game division nearly wipe all the profits company wide in the last quarter. How long will Sony shareholders tolerate a huge hardware profit loss with little chance to recoup those losses with future software sales for an "also ran, 3rd place" game console?
2- The recent BDA announcement that BD players do not have to meet full BD-java interactivity for another 7 months. That's hardly an incentive to go out and buy any BD player - including the PS3 - until manufacturers certify their hardware meets that standard.
3- HD DVD continues to enjoy a strong movie release schedule, with more HD DVD releases scheduled through the end of June than on BD. The Matrix HD DVD Collection to be released May 22 is already #52 in Amazon sales

It always has been and will continue to be an uphill battle for HD DVD. But it's a strong enough contender that it ain't going away anytime soon. I predict HD DVD movie sales will catch back up to BD sales in the next few months, and both will still be strong contenders Christmas '07.

And what's wrong with both formats surviving? I don't think it's causing "consumer confusion" and reluctance for the average consumer to adopt either format. I think it's the dang high prices of players that's causing consumers to hold back embracing either format. The friends & family who have viewed my HD DVD setup overwhelmingly say it's "nice", but not $500 nice. When I tell them the competition costs $1,000 & up, the most used comment is "That's just plan crazy!

 

[navychop]

... HD DVD came out swinging with nearly flawless execution and outstanding quality, while Sony's first BD releases & Samsung's BD player were . . . well, less than impressive, at best.

Ain't it the truth!

It's always been an uphill battle for HD DVD. BUT, BD has hit a couple of snags in its long held strategy.
1- The PS3 is hardly a smashing success. It has dropped to 3rd place in game console sales in North America, and the recent Europe was hardly stellar. The loss in Sony's game division nearly wipe all the profits company wide in the last quarter. How long will Sony shareholders tolerate a huge hardware profit loss with little chance to recoup those losses with future software sales for an "also ran, 3rd place" game console?

It's early in it's product life, and doesn't even have the best games out on it yet. From what I read, not too different from the first few months of the Xbox 360 launch. But you can't make toast on a PS3. Give it a year, or at least until Xmas.

2- The recent BDA announcement that BD players do not have to meet full BD-java interactivity for another 7 months. That's hardly an incentive to go out and buy any BD player - including the PS3 - until manufacturers certify their hardware meets that standard.

Oh yes- a biggie for me - & I don't even care about PIP. I view this as a disincentive to buy. I doubt I'll be shopping around the Fourth of July as I previously planned. Unless manufacturers beat that deadline by a mile.

3- HD DVD continues to enjoy a strong movie release schedule, with more HD DVD releases scheduled through the end of June than on BD. The Matrix HD DVD Collection to be released May 22 is already #52 in Amazon sales

Perhaps a bit optimistic, but we'll see. Especially with Spielberg out, it would be really hard for Universal to out trump the exclusive Blu-ray studios. We'll see how the fight goes. If we hit the end of the summer and Blu-ray is still only outselling by 2 or 3 to 1, it'll be a whole different ball game.

It always has been and will continue to be an uphill battle for HD DVD. But it's a strong enough contender that it ain't going away anytime soon. I predict HD DVD movie sales will catch back up to BD sales in the next few months, and both will still be strong contenders Christmas '07.

Possible. Not likely- at least, I don't see how. But we've all been surprised in the past.


And what's wrong with both formats surviving?

Costly to studios and retailers.

I don't think it's causing "consumer confusion" and reluctance for the average consumer to adopt either format. I think it's the dang high prices of players that's causing consumers to hold back embracing either format. The friends & family who have viewed my HD DVD setup overwhelmingly say it's "nice", but not $500 nice. When I tell them the competition costs $1,000 & up, the most used comment is "That's just plan crazy!

Now, you know you can get a Blu-ray player for about the same price as an HD-DVD player.

Even if they lose out and disappear, I'm glad HD-DVD was here. Sony would no doubt be putting out an inferior product, and much slower, if it weren't for competition.

 

[boston area dtv]

Boston -

Yes, your assumptions are correct - BD has a greater all around backing from the studios and from the manufacturers of video players.. The thing is, those things were in place before either format launched, and certainly before you ever bought you HD DVD player.

Spending $200 bucks on an HD DVD add on wasnt a big investment.

I purchased a few movies which would use my player to the best of its abilities.

However, when I purchased my HD DVD add on for the 360 I was hoping that HD DVD's head start in the HI Def market would encourage the various studios and player makers to join HD DVD.

The problem is nobody joined HD DVD.

Toshiba, Microsoft and Universal jumped into this fight with Sony and Samsung and pummeled them early. But noone has joined their fight.

While I think its way to early to claim that HD DVD is dead, I do think that if noone joins their cause it is safe to say it will be.

 

[JoeSp]

The only reason that this 'format war' is going on is because of M$. They are the ones that convinced Toshiba to pull out of negotiations with Sony. Sony did not pull that plug -- Toshiba did. I don't see HD-DVD as dead but they would have to make some very serious changes to step up to the challange.

First, they would have to do regional coding. They lost Disney over this and Disney is not going where there is no regional coding.

Second, they need to get rid of all the gimmick discs. No Combos, No THDS, No 720p with no HD audio codecs. These need to go and go now.

Third, they need quality movies for the family. They are not making this mark at all.

Fourth, they have got to get a Studio with current hits in their back yard -- without that HD-DVD is dead! Three or four hits a year will not make a format run.

Fifth, they have to come up with a better security plan. BD has BD+ and watermarking. HD-DVD has nothing. Some studios, like Disney and Fox are not going to put their movies on a format that cannot protect their media.

And last, Toshiba has got to get some of the other major manufacturers selling HD-DVD players. If Toshiba and M$ are the only major players it looks like a one-sided football game where on one side there are 60 guys suited up and on the other there are only 11. The consumer sees this as a weakness and will not invest.

With the current movement of 2 to 1 or higher in discs sales these are all uphill battles for the HD-DVD camp. Everyone knows that as soon as someone caves the other format is going to really take off. It does not seem if HD-DVD is going to be able to do that. Lets see how the $100 off and 5 free HD-DVD movies works. I bet if HD-DVD does well at all BluRay will follow suit very quickly. Man, I love competition!!!!

 

[CochiseGuy]

While I think its way to early to claim that HD DVD is dead, I do think that if no one joins their cause it is safe to say it will be.

On that we agree 100%.

One reason I've been posting here so much (too much? ) is that I got tired of reading all those "HD DVD is dead" posts. HD DVD came out swinging and beat Blu-ray in 2006. With the PS3 launch and Jan. - March release schedule, Blu-ray caught up and passed HD DVD. But with the release schedule now through the end of June with HD DVD outnumbering BD releases, it's still a horse race.

With the Matrix trilogy release announcement, WB seems to be favoring HD DVD, or at least got totally fed up with the BDA's delay in standardizing BD-J interactivity.

But, the only hope for HD DVD is to prolong this thing long enough to persuade other CE companies and some BD exclusive studios that they're leaving money on the table by not producing / releasing HD DVD.

 

[navychop]

The problem is nobody joined HD DVD.

Toshiba, Microsoft and Universal jumped into this fight with Sony and Samsung and pummeled them early. But no one has joined their fight.

While I think its way too early to claim that HD DVD is dead, I do think that if no one joins their cause it is safe to say it will be.

Yep. I also agree. But I don't see how the other studios can reasonably be expected to join HD-DVD. There's nothing to be gained. They WANT a single format, and they WANT higher capacity/higher transfer rate/better security/whatever.

The only reason that this 'format war' is going on is because of M$. They are the ones that convinced Toshiba to pull out of negotiations with Sony. Sony did not pull that plug -- Toshiba did. I don't see HD-DVD as dead but they would have to make some very serious changes to step up to the challenge.

Or Sony make some very stupid ones.

First, they would have to do regional coding. They lost Disney over this and Disney is not going where there is no regional coding.

How could they add regional encoding at this point? There are many devices out there that ignore the regions and will play any disc. Or they could redefine the standard and all current players would be unable to play future discs. I don't see this happening. That ship has sailed, with Disney onboard. Probably a fatal error, even if there are only 3 regions. Or someone would have to convince Disney to reverse course.

Fourth, they have got to get a Studio with current hits in their back yard -- without that HD-DVD is dead! Three or four hits a year will not make a format run.

Certainly. But it's interesting that the # of releases in each format to be made from inception to the end of 2007 appear fairly even. With five eighths of the major studios Blu-ray only, and having deeper catalogs with more recent hits- why aren't the numbers of Blu-ray hits beginning to swamp HD-DVD?

Fifth, they have to come up with a better security plan. BD has BD+ and watermarking. HD-DVD has nothing. Some studios, like Disney and Fox are not going to put their movies on a format that cannot protect their media.

That idea (backfitting higher security on HD-DVD) may have been a passenger on that ship that sailed. But the same might apply to Blu-ray. There is no certainty that the final iteration of BD+ will be supportable by a firmware upgrade to all current players. Likely, but not guaranteed. And it will require a lot of people to learn how to upgrade their firmware. Hmmm- send 'em a disc, since they don't have ethernet connections?

And last, Toshiba has got to get some of the other major manufacturers selling HD-DVD players.

Key word: "Major." Word is out that about a dozen unknowns and little knowns will pump out cheapo players, to be sold under 30 or more labels. It may not help HD-DVD to have most of it's players with brands like "Young Nobody" "Fly By Night" or similar dinky names. Of course, these players may or may not appear. HD-DVD has certainly relied on bum rumors in the past- e.g. that Disney was going to release in HD-DVD by Xmas 2006.

Lets see how the $100 off and 5 free HD-DVD movies works. I bet if HD-DVD does well at all BluRay will follow suit very quickly. Man, I love competition!!!!

Yeah, hurt me, hurt me! :

On that we agree 100%.

But, the only hope for HD DVD is to prolong this thing long enough to persuade other CE companies and some BD exclusive studios that they're leaving money on the table by not producing / releasing HD DVD.

Yes, I agree- a long war favors HD-DVD survival.

It ain't over. And it might be about to get a lot more interesting.