Predictions from a retailer standpoint
By the year's end, there'll be bundled package savings for SBC, SIRIUS, and other partnership companies. That means combined billing, specialized customer service, and different promotional offerings.
As for HD content, national HD local feeds will be available in rural markets. TNT-HD will get added to the HD Pak when another viable HD channel is available for bundling. Starz HD will be available when purchased with Starz premium pack. These new HD channels will come on 110 as more and more locals will be carried by 105 SuperDISH until the next AMC satellite goes into that slot.
As for local HD, Dish Network will introduce a promotion for customers to get locals on off-air antenna installed at the time of activation. Customers will get a choice of a few different antennas to choose from and retailers will get incentives to do this. But due to antenna limitations, the installer will use their discretion on the "line of sight" for the antennas.
More international channels to be offered. Dish Network has at least 1 to 3 million customers that have Dish Network solely because of international programming. The new international channels will be offered on the 121 SuperDISH and current customers getting international channels on the 61.5 location will eventually get free SuperDISH 121 upgrades as 61.5 will be cleared for HD. I'd suspect 61.5 to be for HD as Voom is also on 61.5 and an acquisition will make moving those Voom customers over easy.
As for existing customer promotions, the $99 DVR upgrade will continue and HD 811 upgrade will go down to $149 as more receivers ship. The 921 will probably drop to $750 or less by this year's end. The 250GB hard drive on the 921 is already not the biggest drive on the market.
The next big receiver for Dish Network should be a networkable receiver. One that can allow people to surf the web while viewing TV when Dish Network launches two-way internet in 2005/6. Not only that, it should be a complete entertainment center with a slot to read CF, SM, and MemoryStick for digital photos, have a module for SIRIUS so that you can take the module to the car, and be a DVR.
Also, DHA will go away in about a year. At least I hope it will. The current no-commitment deal is a deal-breaker for many retailers. But it won't go away until the erosion to cable companies has slowed down. The Free DISH promotion will allow customers to get an 811 HD, two 311's for 1-year contract without a $99 upgrade fee. Or a 510 DVR, and two 311's for a 1-year commitment without a $99 upgrade fee.
And Dish should introduce a new DVR model that allows the customer to activate the DVR functionality whenever and pay $4.98 VOD fee when using the DVR functions. And when they decide not to use it, they'll not be charged $4.98. I always had a hard time explaining to customers why they have to pay additional $4.98/month if they're getting it for "free" upfront. Or they'll waive the $4.98/month DVR fee for AT180 customers.
A lot of wishful thinking on here and it's too bad that there isn't much good news in the horizon for Dish Network. The Congress is going to really hamper Dish Network's growth in some areas.
WTF???
