How Can HD DVD win?

[Hoopnoop]

Now that CES is over, my main question is: how can HD DVD win this format war? I have an HD DVD player and am an avid supporter of that format but I see three formidable obstacles in the way of HD DVD:

1. Marketing support - For whatever reason, the big box retailers seem to be on the Blue Ray bandwagon. Virtually every retailer in my area is pusing Blue Ray including Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears, Tweeter, etc.
2. Studio support - As the new title releases for this year, it appears to me that Blue Ray's strength with the studios is beginning to show. It appears to me that they will have the superior array of titles by the end of the year and that the gap will increase over time.
3. PS3 - A friend of mine got a PS3 for Christmas and was showing off some of his Blue Ray movies to me and I was pretty impressed. I don't know the projections for PS3 sales for 2007 but the fact that Blue Ray is integrated would seem to give a big opportunity to get a foothold with customers in contrast to buying the add-on for XBox 360.

Now the main competitive response I have seen from HD DVD involves a lower price strategy, various marketing activities and the support of Universal. But can this be enough to overcome the Blue Ray advantages? I hope I am wrong but I am skeptical.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Best Buy seems to be neutral in my area. One section for BluRay, one for HD DVD, on the other side of the new release DVD section that greets you as soon as you walk in.

 

[korsjs]

has a great shot since porn has choosen them.

 

[navychop]

No, they haven't. Turned out that story was overblown, if you'll excuse the expression.

Please see my post #7 here.

 

[Sarang]

Now that CES is over, my main question is: how can HD DVD win this format war? I have an HD DVD player and am an avid supporter of that format but I see three formidable obstacles in the way of HD DVD:

1. Marketing support - For whatever reason, the big box retailers seem to be on the Blue Ray bandwagon. Virtually every retailer in my area is pusing Blue Ray including Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears, Tweeter, etc.
2. Studio support - As the new title releases for this year, it appears to me that Blue Ray's strength with the studios is beginning to show. It appears to me that they will have the superior array of titles by the end of the year and that the gap will increase over time.
3. PS3 - A friend of mine got a PS3 for Christmas and was showing off some of his Blue Ray movies to me and I was pretty impressed. I don't know the projections for PS3 sales for 2007 but the fact that Blue Ray is integrated would seem to give a big opportunity to get a foothold with customers in contrast to buying the add-on for XBox 360.

Now the main competitive response I have seen from HD DVD involves a lower price strategy, various marketing activities and the support of Universal. But can this be enough to overcome the Blue Ray advantages? I hope I am wrong but I am skeptical.

All you can do is continue to spread the word around that the discs cost less, offer as high a picture quality as Blu-Ray as well.

 

[hpman247]

BD is the superior formant anyway.

 

[BobMurdoch]

HD DVD pros: Easier to convert existing DVD manufacturing facilities to the new paradigm (ie. more popular with smaller indie pressing facilities), cheaper to produce, no region coding, cheaper equipment (via XBox360 add ons, existing standalone players vs. current standalone BluRay players, wave of Chinese manufacturers will be flooding the market by the end of the year -- $99 players in your local supermarket will be hard for BluRay to fend off)

BluRay pros - Higher capacity discs, more exclusive studio support right now (Fox, Sony, Disney for BD vs. Universal for HD DVD)

Pushes..... PQ is roughly equal now (BD stumbled as first releases like 5th Element were in Mpeg2 vs. VC-1 which looks a lot better -- most releases now are using the same codecs so PQ is pretty equal now from the content side). Audio codecs are equal as well, although certain hardware on the HD DVD side is unable to pass through lossless audio.

The region coding issue alone should be getting more press. If you want to buy imported discs from the UK or Japan, they will work. Reminds me of the time I bought a Japanese Laserdisc of the Phantom Menace, back in 2000 when it was only available on VHS here for a year or two. You could get DVD box sets of Dr. Who way before they get their release here....

 

[BobMurdoch]

BD is the superior formant anyway.

Tastes great. LESS FILLING!

 

[s8ist]

BD is the superior formant anyway.

That's seriously debatable.

 

[Sarang]

The region coding issue alone should be getting more press. If you want to buy imported discs from the UK or Japan, they will work. Reminds me of the time I bought a Japanese Laserdisc of the Phantom Menace, back in 2000 when it was only available on VHS here for a year or two. You could get DVD box sets of Dr. Who way before they get their release here....

Excellent point Bob. I know there are some HD-DVD's in Japan I'm going to buy that aren't available here.
Is that confirmed the Chinese players will be that cheap? I thought they were going to be more around $200. Regardless if an HD-DVD player debuts at $200 or less by the end of the year without a rival BD at the same price and they advertise the sh*t out of it Sony is screwed.

 

[GeorgeLV]

All you can do is continue to spread the word around that the discs cost less, offer as high a picture quality as Blu-Ray as well.

The discs don't cost more on Blu-ray. Paramount discs are exact same price on Blu-ray and HD-DVD. Warner are the same or CHEAPER because of the HD-DVD combo premium. Sony, Disney, and Lionsgate are Blu-ray exclusive and price about the same as HD-DVD. Fox (Blu-ray exclusive) does charge about $10 more for their discs than anybody else.

 

[teachsac]

BD is the superior formant anyway.

In theory.

 

[Sarang]

Speaking of the HD-DVD region free issue now would be the time to release some movies that would make fairly nice worldwide sales, "My Sassy Girl" comes to mind.

 

[BobMurdoch]

The discs don't cost more on Blu-ray. Paramount discs are exact same price on Blu-ray and HD-DVD. Warner are the same or CHEAPER because of the HD-DVD combo premium. Sony, Disney, and Lionsgate are Blu-ray exclusive and price about the same as HD-DVD. Fox (Blu-ray exclusive) does charge about $10 more for their discs than anybody else.

The discs cost less to PRODUCE, which usually translates into fatter margins and more leeway in reducing prices. At my local Best Buy the Blu Ray discs on average cost $5-10 more than HD DVD. Your mileage may vary.

 

[teachsac]

SOny is subsidizing production right now to defer costs of disc production. That is how they lured Warner and a few other studios that had announced HD-DVD exclusivity in the beginning.

S~

 

[vinnyv07]

I think that BD is gaining alot of support with many companies making discs for them. If Universal changes their minds and supports both formats, HD DVD is in real trouble. We will see.

 

[navychop]

Sadly, it's BD, not BR. And it's Blu-ray, not Blu-Ray or BlueRay. Blu-ray Disc.

And it's BD-RE rather than BD-RW for the rewritables.

Don't you just LOVE Sony? Change for the sake of sowing confusion.

 

[JonUrban]

SOny is subsidizing production right now to defer costs of disc production. That is how they lured Warner and a few other studios that had announced HD-DVD exclusivity in the beginning.

S~

Exactly what they did with SACD, and as soon as they stopped, so did SACD output from labels like UMG, BlueNote, etc.

Not a good sign.

 

[Sarang]

I think that BR is gaining alot of support with many companies making discs for them. If Universal changes their minds and supports both formats, HD DVD is in real trouble. We will see.

Well don't forgot Weinstein is also a HD-DVD exclusive.

 

[HDTVFanAtic]

No, they haven't. Turned out that story was overblown, if you'll excuse the expression.

Please see my post #7 here.

You speak of future speculation at this point. Right now the Adult Industry is centering on HD-DVD - not BD - and you even stated in the post - that is how HD-DVD would win - which was the question the OP asked.