Goldengun, my information comes from very reliable, high management at DIRECTV, who is still employed at DIRECTV. I can only offer a guaranty that what I say is 100% truthful and comes from very reliable sources. Also, DIRECTV did make a public statement committing to equipment replacements.
I would not and could not guaranty what DIRECTV will do. I would take bets with very favorable odds that what I say comes true. I fully expect all MPEG-2 equipment to be replaced at no or very little charge to any customer, assuming you agree to a additional year of service.
If anyone wants to take me up on the bet, we'll let Scott hold the money and set up a thread for record keeping and comments.
-Robert