Ah but that's how it begins. You say it's not so bad now but then they merge another, and then maybe another and before you know it you're right back where you started. Every climb up the ladder begins with a first step.
There's only so much concentration that the government will allow among media giants. Industry observers and leaders consistently refer to there being maybe 6 major global players in video when the dust settles. They will likely be:
- Netflix
- Amazon (caveat: Should anti-trust action end up busting up this company so that their video service is severed from retail, it's certainly plausible that Prime Video would cease to exist, with its content library auctioned off to others. But otherwise, this giant is here to stay.)
- Apple
- Google (YouTube)
- Disney
- Warner Bros. Discovery
- possibly one other traditional Hollywood titan
There will be no M&A among the top 4 I've listed above -- e.g. Apple will never buy Netflix -- except for the possible (though unlikely) scenario that Amazon is broken up, rendering their Prime Video service economically infeasible.
It's possible IMO that we'll end up with not 6, but 7 major global players. Who would be the 7th? Most likely a merged Universal Paramount, which would combine Peacock, Paramount+, Showtime, BET+ and Noggin to form a global super-streamer. (Yes, they'd have to sell off either CBS or NBC, most likely to WBD.)
Another possibility is that we see WBD acquire or merge with either Universal or Paramount, with the other acquired by someone else, if the feds allow it. For example, if WBD merged with Universal (which is a tie-up that had reportedly been explored by Warner in the past), perhaps Disney would acquire Paramount and then spin off ESPN plus either ABC or CBS into an independent US-only broadcast and cable business, similar to what Fox became after selling most of their assets to Disney a few years ago. (Fox is now just the Fox network, Fox News, FS1, FS2, and Big 10 Network, with no major film/TV studio.) Or, alternatively, instead of Disney buying Paramount, we might see Paramount ending up alone, as it is now, prompting it to exit the global streaming game and instead license their content to one or more of the remaining giants (like Sony does). Another option would be that Paramount gets split up and purchased by multiple parties, with one piece going here and another going there. If any of these scenarios pan out, we'll end up with just 6 global media powers.
One other note: while I've included Google in this list, it's solely on the basis of their ad-supported YouTube, which obviously offers a different sort of video content than the others. I don't see Google ever playing the role of a traditional studio, creating a lot of professional-quality movies, series, live sports, news, etc. They may still dabble in that stuff a bit, but YouTube will always mainly be about user-uploaded amateur content and sample clips from professional media sources.
So, not counting YouTube, I think we'll end up with our video entertainment content split among 5 or 6 big players who will always have to compete against each other and struggle against consumer churn. And that's good for us consumers. It gives us a fair amount of choice and helps keep subscription prices in check. We're not going back to the days of the cable bundle, which was basically: "Here's a big group of channels and here's an even bigger group of channels. Pick one."
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