Has Charlie Bought the Farm?

birkoff

SatelliteGuys Family
Original poster
Aug 21, 2004
94
5
I keep seeing and reading how DirectTV has plans to
include HD Locals in 2005 and 2007. Does Dish have
a response or are they going to follow the buggy-whip
business model?

Birkoff
 
I think that either a viacom (cbs) or NBC merger will have to happen. Charlie simply can't compete with the cash base Rupert has. The problem is that he has been a lone wolf/maverick for soo long he doesn't know how to be a team player. He'll start to hemmorrhage subs this year if he doesn't keep up. I look to the echostar shareholders to give him the boot within 2 years if growth doesn't increase faster.
 
ocnier said:
I think that either a viacom (cbs) or NBC merger will have to happen. Charlie simply can't compete with the cash base Rupert has. The problem is that he has been a lone wolf/maverick for soo long he doesn't know how to be a team player. He'll start to hemmorrhage subs this year if he doesn't keep up. I look to the echostar shareholders to give him the boot within 2 years if growth doesn't increase faster.
umm MR ERGEN OWNS THE MAJORITY OF THE STOCK!! I really cant see him fireing himself
 
juan said:
umm MR ERGEN OWNS THE MAJORITY OF THE STOCK!! I really cant see him fireing himself
I really wish people would quit posting this crap! Somebody must post a similar comment each week.

Charlie owns LESS than 250,000 shares these days. He sold 1.8 million of his shares in the last two years.

Jim DeFranco (the largest Insider) still owns more than 4,700,000 shares, but even he doesnt have a majority share.

By far, Fidelity owns more stock than anyone else with over 13% (almost 30 million shares) of the outstanding stock.
 
Yall forgot more shopping channels and underwater basket weaving programs. Can't have a sat company without good content now can we?
 
birkoff said:
I keep seeing and reading how DirectTV has plans to
include HD Locals in 2005 and 2007. Does Dish have
a response or are they going to follow the buggy-whip
business model?

Birkoff
Can anybody tell us how DirectTV is going to actually have these, "5,000" HD (as seen on TV commercial) uplinked and downlinked to us viewers? How many birds is it going to take and just how much compression does MPEG4 provide?
 
boy921 said:
Can anybody tell us how DirectTV is going to actually have these, "5,000" HD (as seen on TV commercial) uplinked and downlinked to us viewers? How many birds is it going to take and just how much compression does MPEG4 provide?
from the directv website, and correction (not a rude correction) its 1500 hd channels not 5,000

DIRECTV, Inc., provider of the nation's leading digital multichannel television service, announced today a historic expansion of programming capacity with the planned launch of four new next-generation satellites. These satellites will provide DIRECTV with a massive expansion in local and national high-definition (HD) channels, as well as capacity for new interactive and enhanced services and standard-definition programming. DIRECTV will have the capacity to bring these new services to every household in America.

"We have led the TV industry in choice, quality and service and we are now positioned to lead the industry in bringing new advanced television programming to consumers nationwide," said Chase Carey, president and CEO of The DIRECTV Group, Inc. "Only DIRECTV, not cable or other competitors, will have the capability to bring hundreds of high-definition channels and other enhancements to consumers across the entire country with the consistency, reliability and quality that they demand and deserve."

The first two of these satellites, Spaceway 1 and Spaceway 2, will launch in 2005 with programming being offered to consumers by the middle of the year. These satellites will have the capacity for more than 500 local HD channels. With these satellites, DIRECTV will have the ability to bring local HD programming to most of the U.S. population, as well as continuing to expand standard-definition local offerings and other enhancements.

The next two satellites, DIRECTV 10 and DIRECTV 11, will launch in early 2007. These satellites will have the capacity for more than 1,000 additional local HD channels, more than 150 national HD channels, and other new programming offerings. These satellites will provide DIRECTV the capability to bring local and national HD programming and other advanced services to every U.S. household. Consumers will be able to receive all of these services, as well as existing DIRECTV® programming, with a single small satellite dish.

"Today's announcement is one of the most significant in the history of DIRECTV. We are reinforcing our commitment to best serve our customers with the most attractive and compelling array of programming services available," said Mitch Stern, president and CEO, DIRECTV, Inc. "Furthermore, with the launch of local HD channels we will help advance the nation's transition to digital television. Our strongest growth is in our local channel markets where millions of former cable customers have cut their service for DIRECTV; offering local HD channels, as well as a variety of interactive services, will strengthen our competitive position and give cable customers who have yet to switch another reason to subscribe to DIRECTV."

DIRECTV 10 and DIRECTV 11, to be built by Boeing, will be among the largest and most powerful Ka-band satellites ever launched. The satellites, which will take advantage of DIRECTV's advanced transmission techniques and state-of-the-art video compression technology, will deliver national HD programming and will be capable of supporting spot beams carrying local HD broadcast channels in all 50 states. Boeing will also build a third satellite for DIRECTV that will serve as a ground spare.

The Spaceway 1 and Spaceway 2 satellites, also being built by Boeing, are approaching completion and the satellites were recently converted to be capable of offering both video and a broadband Internet service. Boeing is also constructing a third Spaceway satellite.
 
StevenD said:
I really wish people would quit posting this crap! Somebody must post a similar comment each week.

Charlie owns LESS than 250,000 shares these days. He sold 1.8 million of his shares in the last two years.

Jim DeFranco (the largest Insider) still owns more than 4,700,000 shares, but even he doesnt have a majority share.

By far, Fidelity owns more stock than anyone else with over 13% (almost 30 million shares) of the outstanding stock.

I'd like to see your sources for this. I'm not doubting your numbers.

It is my understanding that Echostar is owned through dual-class shares. Not too many people hold the all important super-voting shares other than Charlie. It is my understanding that charlie holds a clear majority of the voting shares. Regular public shares carry one vote per share, while the private shares may hold 100 votes each. Don't quote the 100, but it's close.

So, Charlie may own a minority of shares, but he owns a majority of the votes.

From some obscure financial site: "Echostar Communications demonstrates the extreme power that can be had through dual-class shares: founder and CEO Charlie Ergen has about 5% of the company's stock, but his super-voting class-A shares give him a whopping 90% of the vote."
 
StevenD said:
I really wish people would quit posting this crap! Somebody must post a similar comment each week.

Charlie owns LESS than 250,000 shares these days. He sold 1.8 million of his shares in the last two years.

Jim DeFranco (the largest Insider) still owns more than 4,700,000 shares, but even he doesnt have a majority share.

By far, Fidelity owns more stock than anyone else with over 13% (almost 30 million shares) of the outstanding stock.

Actually you need to go read the Echostar annual report. Charlie may only own a few hundred thousand shares of the common stock, but he owns ALL 238,435,208 shares of the class B stock. The number of shares of class B shares Charlie happens to own (238 million) is almost as many as the total number of class c common shares (240 million) outstanding. But class B votes 10x per share! So, about 89% of the vote goes to Charlie!

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NSD/dish/reports/DISH_AR03.pdf

see pages 71 and 100 of the PDF to see info on class B.
 
And that ownership puts him well over $7 Billion in net worth.

How would you like to get your daily Ameritrade Email portfolio report showing a decrease of $7 million in your holdings? ...and still feel good because that is less than a 1% drop. :)
 
On the original topic of how Echostar can compete with DIRECTV...

Echostar just bought the VOOM satellite. This would probably let them provide LIL HD right away into the top 10-20 markets or so. Plus now they have AMC-15 and AMC-16 in orbit with Ka spots, not to mention spare Ku capacity. With Rainbow-1, AMC-15 and AMC-16 they probably have the capacity for the top 50+ markets. This could all be in place in less than 6 months. Dish could have the top 50 LIL HD markets by the end of the year if they wanted to, the question is if they want to do it.

Also Echostar 10 is scheduled to go up this year too. This could free up more space on 105 and 121 for more LIL HD. Dish also has licenses for 3 more Ku-AUX satellites to be built, 3 or so Ka satellites, an option on another SES Ku-FSS satellite (like AMC-15 and AMC-16), an option on a Ku-DBS satellite from SES if they get 105.5 approved, and the 157 Ku-DBS slot. All this satellite space plus the tons of MVVDS ground based licenses.
 
mike123abc said:
On the original topic of how Echostar can compete with DIRECTV...

Echostar just bought the VOOM satellite. This would probably let them provide LIL HD right away into the top 10-20 markets or so. Plus now they have AMC-15 and AMC-16 in orbit with Ka spots, not to mention spare Ku capacity. With Rainbow-1, AMC-15 and AMC-16 they probably have the capacity for the top 50+ markets. This could all be in place in less than 6 months. Dish could have the top 50 LIL HD markets by the end of the year if they wanted to, the question is if they want to do it.

Also Echostar 10 is scheduled to go up this year too. This could free up more space on 105 and 121 for more LIL HD. Dish also has licenses for 3 more Ku-AUX satellites to be built, 3 or so Ka satellites, an option on another SES Ku-FSS satellite (like AMC-15 and AMC-16), an option on a Ku-DBS satellite from SES if they get 105.5 approved, and the 157 Ku-DBS slot. All this satellite space plus the tons of MVVDS ground based licenses.

Already being built, from 10-02-04:

From the FCC Daily Digest:

ECHOSTAR SATELLITE LLC. Granted EchoStar Satellite LLC Authority to
Construct, Launch and Operate a Geostationary-Satellite Orbit Satellite
in the Fixed-Satellite Service Using the Extended Ku-Band Frequencies at
the 109,83,121 Degree W.L. Orbital Locations.
 
gpflepsen said:
And that ownership puts him well over $7 Billion in net worth.

How would you like to get your daily Ameritrade Email portfolio report showing a decrease of $7 million in your holdings? ...and still feel good because that is less than a 1% drop. :)
Actually, the most recent Forbes 400 shows tunaboy at #23 with a net worth of $1.7B.

I don't doubt your math, just reporting what I found while researching this topic for another thread.

I also found that he's the richest person in Colorado. :(
 
mike123abc said:
On the original topic of how Echostar can compete with DIRECTV...

Echostar just bought the VOOM satellite. This would probably let them provide LIL HD right away into the top 10-20 markets or so. Plus now they have AMC-15 and AMC-16 in orbit with Ka spots, not to mention spare Ku capacity. With Rainbow-1, AMC-15 and AMC-16 they probably have the capacity for the top 50+ markets. This could all be in place in less than 6 months. Dish could have the top 50 LIL HD markets by the end of the year if they wanted to, the question is if they want to do it.

Also Echostar 10 is scheduled to go up this year too. This could free up more space on 105 and 121 for more LIL HD. Dish also has licenses for 3 more Ku-AUX satellites to be built, 3 or so Ka satellites, an option on another SES Ku-FSS satellite (like AMC-15 and AMC-16), an option on a Ku-DBS satellite from SES if they get 105.5 approved, and the 157 Ku-DBS slot. All this satellite space plus the tons of MVVDS ground based licenses.


I think the big question for Dish providing HD locals is the implementation of MPEG-4 which by the way DirecTV will be using for HD locals as well. I believe use of MPEG-4 will provide up to 3 times the capacity as MPEG-2 so the DBS TPs could handle up to 9 HD channels/TP while the extra wide Ku band frequencies on AMC-15 and 16 may allow up to 12 HD channels/TP. Since AMC-15 and 16 have 24 TPs each, this gives each of these satellites capacity for up to 288 HD channels using their Ku band. I have no idea of what the capacity of the Ka band spotbeams on these satellites would be.

The other big item is the successful launch of Echostar-10 (E-10) in late summer of this year. E-10 is a large DBS spotbeam satellite going to 110 W that should solve most if not all of Dish's single dish for all locals problem. Dish has until May of 2006 to comply with the single dish for all locals in a market mandated by the SHREVA legislation and I think this has limited what Dish can do with HD locals until E-10 is successfully launched and operational.
AMC-15 and 16 are probably being held in reserve in case something happens to E-10. E-10 will primarily free up space at 61.5 and 148 although the locals for some of the larger markets at 105 and 121 may also be moved to E-10 at 110 W. Now if Dish could consolidate all the International programming at 121, they could free a lot more space at 61.5 and 148.

The acquisition of Rainbow-1 (Echostar-12?) from Voom should allow Dish an earlier opportunity to offer HD locals especially if the spotbeams work as advertised pending FCC approval. In addition, it should also be noted that Dish has a lease for a Ku band satellite at 118.7 W that is scheduled to be launched sometime in 2006 and Echostar-11, another DBS satellite is being built for launch in 2007. I expect it to be another large spotbeam satellite similar to Echostar-10 probably going to 119 W. Dish has been very quiet about their HD plans but they certainly have a huge amount of additional capacity that should be available within the next year or two.
 
So the question then becomes, simply and straight-forward enough, what is E* going to do with all that capacity? If it's just more SD LIL and and international channels, then when D* gets their HD capacity in-gear, I seriously think E* is going to see a hemorraging of subs to D*.

Wonder what that will do to E*'s stock?
 
I think the problem with Dish right now is Echostar 10 (as rocatman mentions above). They have to be sure this bird flys and gets into place without issue. This is why I think they are just testing AMC-15 and 16 not trying to get them working. They want to be sure that they have the capacity in place for single dish SD LIL as mandated now by congress before they use up the capacity for something else.

Plus of course they have to wait for R-1 transfer to be approved by the FCC.

If in 6 months they have FCC approval of R-1 and E10 is flying and working great, I suspect we will suddenly see a flood of markets with LIL HD. I suspect that like SD, Dish will manage to have more markets up sooner than DIRECTV. The problem of course will be like the old SD LIL... You will need a second dish or a superdish to get LIL HD and DIRECTV will still need just one dish (of course the DIRECTV dish will be the size of superdish).

Dish will have an interesting problem. Which will customers like/dislike more... A superdish or 2 dishes? AMC-15 and 16 offer single superdish reception, Rainbow-1 would need 2 dishes.

The other issue of course is where are they going to stick national HD programming? If they put it on 105 then the larger cities will probably be going to SD 105 with the HD LIL since I do not see them giving the most customers both a superdish and 61.5.

If they decide to put HD on 61.5 then I could see the larger markets getting HD LIL from R-1 spots since it would avoid the whole superdish issue for them. But, then of course Dish would have to set up a 148 solution for the west...
 
SimpleSimon said:
Actually, the most recent Forbes 400 shows tunaboy at #23 with a net worth of $1.7B.

I don't doubt your math, just reporting what I found while researching this topic for another thread.

I also found that he's the richest person in Colorado. :(

I never did the math, but I don't doubt yours. :D

This is from 2002: "Charles Ergen, has a personal fortune of $7.1 billion, good for No. 22 on the Forbes 400.) "

This is from 2004: "#34 on Forbes list, Net Worth: $9.1 bil"

E* may only make up 1 billion of his net worth.

On the subject of this post, if Charlie wanted to buy the farm, I think he could afford it! :)
 

quirks of my 522

Download current software from 148 only??

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