Increase in International Energy Demand
Surging crude oil demand is being fueled by strong economic growth, particularly in the United States and Asia. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that global crude oil demand will grow 2.5 percent in 2005, reaching 84.7 million barrels per day. Available spare oil production capacity is currently about one percent of total worldwide demand, leaving very little room to compensate for unanticipated supply disruptions or spikes in demand. The tenuous balance between supply and demand is even more of a concern when you consider that most of the world's oil is located in some of the more politically unstable parts of the world. As such, supply disruptions, whether real or perceived, can have dramatic effects on the price of crude oil.
Global economic expansion is driving what the U.S. International Energy Agency (IEA) says is the biggest increase in oil demand in 24 years. In particular, industrialised countries such as the US and Asia have had a demand surge.
China’s rapidly expanding economy has created a huge demand boost and US demand has risen because of its strengthening economic recovery and greater need for higher grade crude oil suitable for processing into petrol (gasoline) for SUVs, which are popular with US drivers.
Oil Supply – Uncertainty is Placing Pressure on Price
Crude oil is refined to produce petrol and diesel and the cost of crude oil is traditionally the greatest single factor affecting fuel prices over time. However, with the shortage of refineries to refine the crude we are in a unique situation where the price difference between crude oil and refined product can be large.
Supply remains volatile. A number of other factors also increase uncertainty of supply and with rising demand, this is placing tremendous pressure on pricing. Political volatility in oil producing regions has historically impacted on crude oil prices and the political situation in the Middle East is of global concern.
Taxation
Taxes takes up a significant component of the price in a litre of fuel, but it varies from product to product, and country to country. Tax rates can be as high as 50 per cent of the cost of fuel in countries that Caltex operates in.
Country Tax % of pump price
for a litre of petrol Tax % of pump price
for a litre of diesel
Cambodia 35% 18%
Hong Kong 57% 21%
New Zealand 50% 12%
Philippines 23% 15%
Singapore 29% 5%
Thailand 32% 21%
South Africa 26.3% 23.3%
Other Factors That Influence Petroleum Prices
Although the cost of crude oil has the most impact on average petroleum prices in the long term, local market conditions, which include the forces of supply, demand, competition, and government regulation, can also have a significant impact on petroleum prices, and explain some of the variations in petroleum prices across different markets.
In any market situation, supply and demand imbalances can affect prices in the short term. Supply shortages typically cause upward price pressure, and can result from an unplanned refinery outage, pipeline problems, or an unforeseen increase in demand. Conversely, length of supply, where supply exceeds demand, can result in downward price pressure. For example, last year on the West Coast of the USA, average petroleum prices actually dropped while crude oil prices were rising. This occurred because higher petroleum prices attracted more petroleum imports, which resulted in higher inventories and greater supply, while demand was softening with the end of the summer driving season.
Other factors affecting pricing include foreign exchange, geographic location and local competition.
Competition, reflected by the number of choices in the market place, can also affect pricing. Almost everyone has experienced the difference in petroleum prices between a lone station on a lengthy interstate and in town, where many intersections may have two or three service stations to choose from.
Generally, price adjustments in the market affect short-term supply-demand imbalances and bring supply and demand back into balance. Whether in a situation of supply tightness or length, price will eventually bring the supply-demand balance into equilibrium by attracting additional supply or influencing demand.