Have to admit, I thought the dispute would be over by now. I wish the regionals were ala carte and you could buy thyem if you wanted them. Like everything else i this world greed comes a calling once more.
fox sports dispute
- Thread starter Chuck Summers
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There is hope!
dishpromise.com just posted an update on the dispute today, so they are no longer listing the January date as the date for the next expected update.
Today's Fox Sports Net update is the only one on that site that does not specifically say "We don’t have new news to report."
This one is interesting - signs are there that Dish may be cutting the cord with sports fans due to economics despite their statement that "we love sports fans" in their 'dish promise' update.
Here's what we know:
1) Direct has already come to an extension agreement with Sinclair that includes Marquee and the RSNs. So a satellite option will exist for the RSNs.
2) Major League Baseball, NBA, NHL, etc. have already signed agreements with the RSN's requiring $x millions of dollars many years into the future.
3) Dish refuses to keep the prior business model of spreading the cost over the multitudes of customers that don't watch the RSNs.
4) The RSN's won't move to a-la carte - that won't happen in near term (regardless of what Charlie says) - they would lose way too much money.
5) Sinclair has removed Dish from their internal revenue forecasts.
So something has to break here. And I can't see how Sinclair, or Altitude or any other regionals will change the model for Dish. How can they? They already owe the professional sports leagues big dollars based on the prior model. They've also already secured ongoing deals with Direct and other cable providers.
Even if they wanted to change the model, wouldn't Direct have 'favored nation' status in their contract that allows them to change as well? Why would Altitude now completely change their model since they've just signed with Direct?
So this is just the start. It's a handful of RSN's today. Just wait until the ATT Sportsnet stations come up for renewal. Charlie says that his most profitable RSN customers from Aug / Sept have left. So I guess they're not too worried about further attrition impacting subscriber numbers.
But it's hard to believe that the majority of sports fans don't follow at least one local team that is linked to an RSN in someway. That has to be a big number. Isn't 'live' sports one of the key drivers to keep people with satellite and cable?
I can't see how the RSNs will win this battle. Dish will drop the RSN's, lose a large(?) number of customers that want to follow a local sports team, do their damage to the content providers and then move on. Maybe that population of sports fans is tiny? But if that's the case, it sure seems like Dish is doing a lot to at least delay the attrition. (on-going updates, keeping the channels in the guide, statements like "we love sports fans").
This will make for a fascinating 'behind the scenes' book or business case someday.
Here's what we know:
1) Direct has already come to an extension agreement with Sinclair that includes Marquee and the RSNs. So a satellite option will exist for the RSNs.
2) Major League Baseball, NBA, NHL, etc. have already signed agreements with the RSN's requiring $x millions of dollars many years into the future.
3) Dish refuses to keep the prior business model of spreading the cost over the multitudes of customers that don't watch the RSNs.
4) The RSN's won't move to a-la carte - that won't happen in near term (regardless of what Charlie says) - they would lose way too much money.
5) Sinclair has removed Dish from their internal revenue forecasts.
So something has to break here. And I can't see how Sinclair, or Altitude or any other regionals will change the model for Dish. How can they? They already owe the professional sports leagues big dollars based on the prior model. They've also already secured ongoing deals with Direct and other cable providers.
Even if they wanted to change the model, wouldn't Direct have 'favored nation' status in their contract that allows them to change as well? Why would Altitude now completely change their model since they've just signed with Direct?
So this is just the start. It's a handful of RSN's today. Just wait until the ATT Sportsnet stations come up for renewal. Charlie says that his most profitable RSN customers from Aug / Sept have left. So I guess they're not too worried about further attrition impacting subscriber numbers.
But it's hard to believe that the majority of sports fans don't follow at least one local team that is linked to an RSN in someway. That has to be a big number. Isn't 'live' sports one of the key drivers to keep people with satellite and cable?
I can't see how the RSNs will win this battle. Dish will drop the RSN's, lose a large(?) number of customers that want to follow a local sports team, do their damage to the content providers and then move on. Maybe that population of sports fans is tiny? But if that's the case, it sure seems like Dish is doing a lot to at least delay the attrition. (on-going updates, keeping the channels in the guide, statements like "we love sports fans").
This will make for a fascinating 'behind the scenes' book or business case someday.
You forgot important details that can very likely change the outcome moving forward. Look at the loss of subscribers to those that kept the channels or renewed them, and then let’s see attrition rates after the price changes next year.
The only way that works in Dish's favor is if Dish does not have any price increase next year, and they can attract a ton of subscribers (who do not care about local sports) from other pay-TV providers, based purely on having a lower monthly price.
What about the $5 profit per affected sub by not carrying RSNs
Sent from my SM-G950U using the SatelliteGuys app!
Sent from my SM-G950U using the SatelliteGuys app!
That is why I keep saying that there should not be a price increase on the programming packages next year. As far as the packages that do not have any RSN's, I think Dish already budgeted for that by doing a larger than normal price increase on Welcome Pack this year, so that should not go up next year, either. In any event, around this time next month, we will hopefully have a good idea of what Dish is planning to do, price-wise, so that we can finally put this debate and speculation to rest.
My guess is the RSN's are in a tight squeeze. They have bid for and gotten TV rights to live pro sports , probably for a static sum of money, but they sell it to DirecTV, Dish, Comcast, etc. on a per prescriber basis which is shrinking. Their profit margin is going away and they may face bankruptcy if they don't do something.
Well then, let them go bankrupt. The teams still want their games to be seen, and fans still want to watch them. So, the TV rights will just get re-sold to someone else who can find a way to offer the channels / games on terms that are more acceptable to the consumers, and still make money.
I like to dream.
Like I said, wait about a month or so, and we will see who is right. Unfortunately, I can just as easily see Dish splitting the difference, with no increase on the packages (previously) with RSN's, but still a small increase on all other packages. 
Charlie has said that only 10% of his customers want their RSN. I think he is way underestimating the amount of his customers who want their RSN. Time will tell how many customers leave Dish, once it becomes clear that their RSN will not return to Dish.
I remember Charlie making similar claims about AMC. Hmmm... how long did that dispute last, and how did it turn out?
Charlie May have been misleading a little. Since the lawsuit with AMC’s owner was going on at that time, over Voom!, he may have been using those numbers.I remember Charlie making similar claims about AMC. Hmmm... how long did that dispute last, and how did it turn out?
I may have gotten the channel set wrong there, but it was something like that.
That is the way I remember it. The amount of money that Voom was asking for in their lawsuit is probably similar to the amount of money being demanded by the RSN's, considering how expensive the RSN's are.
