ESPN is going Streaming …but when

Bruce

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From the Q&A at the earnings call.

When asked about the future of ESPN as a direct streaming service during Disney’s 1st quarter 2023 earnings call, CEO Bob Iger said, “Regarding ESPN and when we might make the shift, if you’re asking me, is the shift inevitable? The answer is yes, but I’m not going to give you any sense of when that could be, because we have to do it, obviously, at a time that really makes sense for the bottom line. And we’re just not there yet,” Bob Iger said. “And that’s not just about how many subscribers we could get, it’s also about what is the pricing power of ESPN, which obviously ties to the menu of sports that that they’ve licensed.”

So, I have said 2 years, by the end of 2024 , I am sticking to that, but it looks like it will be sooner.

 
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ESPN was broken off into its own division too

Today Disney had some huge news about the future of the company, including ESPN. The first news was that ESPN was being broken off into its own division away from the rest of Disney’s TV brands
 
Easier to sell or spin off completely that way.
Spinning off I could see, buying, no one will pay the price Disney would want, specially since it is losing so many per sub fees every year and the number is increasing.
 
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Spinning off I could see, buying, no one will pay the price Disney would want, specially since it is losing so many per sub fees every year and the number is increasing.
Yep. Dump as much debt into the spun off company as possible, just like AT&T did with DirecTV and WBD.
 
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Disney, which is horrible company, would be smart to get rid of ESPN. Iger admits that the math just doesn't add up. "We have to figure out how to monetize it (ESPN) in disrupted times."

ESPN in a few years is where the RSNs are today. In the bundle, ESPN makes huge money. But a la carte, the price that they would have to charge is beyond the affordability of the average person. And, of course, if its available a la carte, its gone from cable, at least in the basic package. Certainly someone will launch a sports free linear streaming service. Makes too much sense not to.

The math just doesn't add up. Leaving out the NFL and a handful of other events, ESPN gets about 3M max in primetime (its weekday ratings are laughable). 1.5M to 2M is more common. That is the market. Assuming (and you would be wrong to) that every single person who watches ESPN was willing to pay for it a la carte, you are well past the price that that most people can afford.

It will be a toxic asset very soon.
 
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