Don't Panic. There's a lot more to this than HD "leadership".
First, a small minority of DBS/Cable subscribers have HD. On my block in a typical upper-middle-class Chicago Suburb, less than 20% have HDTV service. I am a partner is a geeky technology consultancy (lots of early adopters), and only four of 25 people have HD (two of them also have iPhones). So for a lot of people, it just does not matter.
Then let's look at the 622 committment. By my math, mine runs out in like June of next year. So will I switch if Directv is the "Leader". Only if:
1) A couple of my favorite channels are available in HD, carried by Directv and not available on Dish
AND
2) Those channels carry a significant portion of their programming in HD.
For instance, I am a Gear Head. SpeedTV will be in HD at some point. IF next year Dish does not carry SpeedTV in HD, Directv does AND Speed is carrying things like MotoGP and Formula 1 and Speed World Challenge races in HD (no sure bet by the way!), THEN I might consider switching.
But of course, D* will probably be more expensive, so that may stop me, as well as the library of grap I will no doubt have on my Dish External HDs.
For now, Dish is expanding and picking up most of the Big Popular HD channels that I want in HD (Like Discovery Networks and History), so at that point I am relatively happy. I am looking forward to the External Hard Drive options.
Do I wish they had Comcast Sports Net Chicago in HD? Sure. But at least half of every team's games are available in HD to me via other channels. There is ESPN and Turner and there is WCIU and WGN, for which I have an antenna. I am more upset that I needed to put up the antenna for PBS HD because Dish does not do LIL for PBS stations.