Dish to bid for T-Mobile/Sprint assets

[NYDutch]

I see the T-Mobile/Sprint deal as the more immediate need on both sides of the table for Dish. A DTV buy would likely be at least a couple of years off anyway, and who knows what the financial backing picture could look like by then. I suspect the spectrum Dish is holding may be a big factor in giving them an edge over Altice and Charter.

 

[NashGuy]

I see the T-Mobile/Sprint deal as the more immediate need on both sides of the table for Dish. A DTV buy would likely be at least a couple of years off anyway, and who knows what the financial backing picture could look like by then. I suspect the spectrum Dish is holding may be a big factor in giving them an edge over Altice and Charter.

If I were arranging the pieces on the chess board in a way that makes the most sense (to me, anyhow), I think I'd want Charter and Altice (with one or more outside financial backers) to acquire Boost and whatever spectrum that T-Mobile must shed as part of their Sprint deal. Then Charter and Altice would acquire most or all of DISH's spectrum and gradually build it out (tapering away from reliance on the T-Mobile network via Boost as the new 5G network is built). They'd work with Comcast and Cox in a cable industry consortium to connect those providers' wifi hotspots into the Charter/Altice cellular network, plus use those cablco's coax/fiber networks as backhaul to both towers and small cells (4G/5G). Those cable companies would all sell their own branded cell services using the new cellular network (supplemented with their own shared network assets).

Comcast and Charter already cooperate on their current cellular services, Xfinity Mobile and Spectrum Mobile, although they rely on a deal with Verizon to buy access to their 3G/4G cellular network. Analysts do not believe this arrangement is profitable for either company.

Such a consortium would make the cablecos (whose landline coax/fiber networks are all in different geographic areas rather than directly competing with each other) first-class competitors in the wireless space, just as AT&T and Verizon, through their fiber networks, are first-class competitors in the home/business broadband space. The new T-Mobile plans to also compete in home broadband but through wireless 5G and 4G rather than a wired network.

I just don't really see what DISH brings to the table in terms of running a 5G network. They don't have any experience in cellular or in home broadband and they don't really hold any complementary assets, other than a shrinking cable TV service. I mean, if DISH is the one who ends up with the wireless assets, I wish them well and hope they make a real go of it as a successful 4th competitor. But I'm a bit skeptical.

 

[NYDutch]

Dish is in the early stages of building out a 5G network, and they do have "sister" expertise in the home broadband market through E*/Hughes. The large amount of spectrum they have is likely to far exceed anything T/S is willing to give up in a Boost deal. But the big question is how will the feds evaluate the various strengths and weaknesses of each party.

 

[Tampa8]

If I were arranging the pieces on the chess board in a way that makes the most sense (to me, anyhow), I think I'd want Charter and Altice (with one or more outside financial backers) to acquire Boost and whatever spectrum that T-Mobile must shed as part of their Sprint deal. Then Charter and Altice would acquire most or all of DISH's spectrum and gradually build it out (tapering away from reliance on the T-Mobile network via Boost as the new 5G network is built). They'd work with Comcast and Cox in a cable industry consortium to connect those providers' wifi hotspots into the Charter/Altice cellular network, plus use those cablco's coax/fiber networks as backhaul to both towers and small cells (4G/5G). Those cable companies would all sell their own branded cell services using the new cellular network (supplemented with their own shared network assets).

Comcast and Charter already cooperate on their current cellular services, Xfinity Mobile and Spectrum Mobile, although they rely on a deal with Verizon to buy access to their 3G/4G cellular network. Analysts do not believe this arrangement is profitable for either company.

Such a consortium would make the cablecos (whose landline coax/fiber networks are all in different geographic areas rather than directly competing with each other) first-class competitors in the wireless space, just as AT&T and Verizon, through their fiber networks, are first-class competitors in the home/business broadband space. The new T-Mobile plans to also compete in home broadband but through wireless 5G and 4G rather than a wired network.

I just don't really see what DISH brings to the table in terms of running a 5G network. They don't have any experience in cellular or in home broadband and they don't really hold any complementary assets, other than a shrinking cable TV service. I mean, if DISH is the one who ends up with the wireless assets, I wish them well and hope they make a real go of it as a successful 4th competitor. But I'm a bit skeptical.

You got me thinking. (My wife says she has yet to) Lets say I agree DISH seems out of place compared to others to build out a service.
If Dish were to sell what they have they get X amount of money. If they continue on the current path and do get funding and more assets literally ready to start a build out aren't they worth XXX dollars not just X dollars?

The future is having a vehicle such as wireless to deliver services. DISH has wanted that for sometime now to stay a player or even remain in business. I can't see Charlie giving it up but I do see him building it to where another player would partner with him and they would have both a wireless service to deliver programming and eventually the only Satellite company but without needing to spend billions as At&t had to acquire one. I don't know that he needs a celllular service to partner with, a company that knows that business would do.

 

[NashGuy]

Dish is in the early stages of building out a 5G network, and they do have "sister" expertise in the home broadband market through E*/Hughes. The large amount of spectrum they have is likely to far exceed anything T/S is willing to give up in a Boost deal. But the big question is how will the feds evaluate the various strengths and weaknesses of each party.

Well, the fledgling IoT 5G network that DISH has begun building is, let's be honest, mainly to show the FCC that they're doing *something* in order to avoid losing those spectrum licenses that they've been sitting on for years.

As for the amount of spectrum DISH has, yep, I'm sure you're right that it's a lot more than T/S will have to shed. That's why, in the cable consortium scenario I envisioned, the cablecos would buy most/all of DISH's spectrum too.

I think an overall plan for all this spectrum will become clear pretty soon, because a viable plan will have to be agreed to by all parties involved in order for the T/S merger to be approved. Either DISH is all-in on 5G, becoming a real 4th nationwide network operator that builds out lots of spectrum, or they're going to sell all their spectrum and just focus on their core satellite TV business.

 

[NYDutch]

Well, the fledgling IoT 5G network that DISH has begun building is, let's be honest, mainly to show the FCC that they're doing *something* in order to avoid losing those spectrum licenses that they've been sitting on for years.

As for the amount of spectrum DISH has, yep, I'm sure you're right that it's a lot more than T/S will have to shed. That's why, in the cable consortium scenario I envisioned, the cablecos would buy most/all of DISH's spectrum too.

I think an overall plan for all this spectrum will become clear pretty soon, because a viable plan will have to be agreed to by all parties involved in order for the T/S merger to be approved. Either DISH is all-in on 5G, becoming a real 4th nationwide network operator that builds out lots of spectrum, or they're going to sell all their spectrum and just focus on their core satellite TV business.

That the Dish 5G build out is just for show is pure speculation without being a fly on the Charlie's office wall. As you say, for your roadmap to work ALL parties would have to be in agreement. But in a T/S and Dish deal, only two parties need to agree. That difference could be huge in the eyes of the feds...

 

[NashGuy]

You got me thinking. (My wife says she has yet to) Lets say I agree DISH seems out of place compared to others to build out a service.
If Dish were to sell what they have they get X amount of money. If they continue on the current path and do get funding and more assets literally ready to start a build out aren't they worth XXX dollars not just X dollars?

The future is having a vehicle such as wireless to deliver services. DISH has wanted that for sometime now to stay a player or even remain in business. I can't see Charlie giving it up but I do see him building it to where another player would partner with him and they would have both a wireless service to deliver programming and eventually the only Satellite company but without needing to spend billions as At&t had to acquire one. I don't know that he needs a celllular service to partner with, a company that knows that business would do.

If DISH is to make a real go of a nationwide 5G network, they're going to have to have outside capital investment and, sure, it'd be even better if they could partner with some company that knows that industry and can help reduce the business risk. (Remember, it's not an easy business competing against 3 entrenched incumbents. Ask Sprint.)

I think you should pause and ask whether DISH *wants* to survive and continue on as a corporate entity running a different business (wireless network operator) than what they've always done and been successful at heretofore (DBS TV). I guess the real question to ask is what Charlie wants, since he is (I think?) the largest shareholder in DISH. Would he like to extract all the profits he can from his current capital investments in the DBS TV business -- suck all the juice possible out of that orange and then toss it -- and then retire a rich man, putting his money to work in a diverse basket of investments in various future-focused industries? Or does he wish to shift his huge equity holding in DISH from a business it can run well (even if the future earnings will definitely taper down to eventually zero over the coming decade) to a new business that could do great or could be a disaster? He's got a lot of money riding on that bet.

 

[NYDutch]

Keep in mind Dish isn't the only iron Charlie has in the fire. E* HQ is just 10 minutes away from Dish HQ, and as of the end of March had over $3 billion in cash and marketable securities in their cookie jar.

 

[navychop]

Charlie Ergen May not be the largest stockholder, but he by far controls the largest share of voting stock.


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[mdram]

Altice, Charter, DISH on DoJ shortlist for Sprint, T-Mobile assets

"DISH, meanwhile, has been stockpiling multi-band spectrum in recent years, although its wireless plans remain unclear. The potential acquisition of Sprint’s pre-paid unit, Boost Mobile, would give each player a leg-up in the wireless market."

maybe dish should build out what they have before they lose it, then look at buying more.

 

[NYDutch]

maybe dish should build out what they have before they lose it, then look at buying more.

Dish is actively building out 5G now. A Boost acquisition would give them a ready made customer base.

 

[mdram]

Dish is actively building out 5G now. A Boost acquisition would give them a ready made customer base.

hope your right
march 7th, 2020 is not that far away

 

[navychop]

Isn’t Boost just a reseller with no frequencies or towers of their own? And regional?




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[ncted]

Isn’t Boost just a reseller with no frequencies or towers of their own? And regional?




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They use Sprint's network, but I suspect the idea is the spectrum a combined Sprint/T-Mobile would have to give up would go with the Boost brand, along with roaming agreements.

 

[EatMyVolts]

Boost is an Mobile Network Virtual Operator. No towers, no frequencies, and IIRC they - like a lot of MVNO's - use Sprint.

 

[ewindowman]

It looks like Boost Mobile ran on the back of Nextel than sprint. Dish would have to lease space off of another carrier. Or get the accounts and tell all of their new customers. Don’t worry we will have our network up and running SOON.


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[ncted]

Dish was against the T-Mobile and Sprint merger, now it wants to buy Boost and Metro

 

[NashGuy]

Isn’t Boost just a reseller with no frequencies or towers of their own? And regional?

My understanding is that New T-Mobile would give wholesale access to their newly combined (T-Mo+Sprint) national network -- including both 5G and 4G -- to Boost Mobile at preferential rates for a certain number of years. No idea about what roaming agreements that Boost currently has in place, or might have after its spin-off, though.

As I imagine it, if DISH were to acquire Boost plus some bits of divested T-Mo spectrum, Boost would allow them to immediately have an up-and-running cellular service pulling in money. Boost currently has millions of subscribers (getting access to the nationwide Sprint network). Current Boost customers and the entire operation serving them would simply transfer over to DISH. I could see it being renamed from Boost Mobile to DISH Mobile, of course.

The new phones that DISH Mobile would push to customers would be the same as those sold for the New T-Mo, because they would support all of the bands from the current T-Mo and Sprint networks. (I imagine that many, maybe most, of the phones now in use on Boost do not fully support the T-Mo network.)

Meanwhile, DISH would be building out their own 5G nationwide network from scratch that would operate across the spectrum that they own. That would take years and require LOTS of capital investment. As pieces of that new network go live, DISH would begin selling phones that support not only New T-Mo's network but also DISH's own new homegrown 5G network. Depending on how well DISH Mobile performs in the marketplace, and how long their wholesale agreement would last with New T-Mo and under what terms, I wonder just how much incentive DISH would have to build out a substantial nationwide network that could really compete on its own against the other three major networks.

Would the ultimate goal for DISH be to eventually transition away from using the New T-Mo network completely (or perhaps indefinitely use it but only for limited roaming) or would it be to actually only build out a limited 5G network in places that would be most complementary to the New T-Mo network and in ways that would allow DISH to claim a better overall user experience than New T-Mo? ("We give you access to all their towers plus some more where it counts, guaranteeing better coverage and higher average speeds!")

 

[navychop]

Not sure “Dish Mobile” is such a good name. Maybe make it more folksy and call it “Charlie’s Mobile” - or better yet, “Charlie Chat.”


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[Mochuf]

I see the T-Mobile/Sprint deal as the more immediate need on both sides of the table for Dish. A DTV buy would likely be at least a couple of years off anyway, and who knows what the financial backing picture could look like by then. I suspect the spectrum Dish is holding may be a big factor in giving them an edge over Altice and Charter.

The large amount of spectrum that Dish holds would be the reason I wouldn't allow them to buy Boost and/or Metro. They should have some sort of real cell network by now. You don't reward bad behavior. My family and I are on Metro. I would switch to Cricket if Dish bought them.